old_punter
21 Jul 2016
Trading statement This seemed pretty chirpy, I see a RICS piece talking about some downturn in commercial property rents and values going forward which may or may not be the case. The point seems to me the discount to estimated nav applied by Mr Market post the Leave vote. There has been a considerable bounce back from the low of 500p but we are still looking at a 30%ish discount on what were thought to be the values pre referendum. Even if these were too high, a 30% discount seems much too large if REITS usually trade around nav. And there is a decent dividend yield of 4.5% as well. Unless one sees a rerun of 2007/8 the shares look good value to me.
g16cos
05 Jul 2016
Re: brokers notes Games in the end you may be right who knows? However my firm opinion on this is that at these prices it is an opportunity to buy in tranches to get access to a very good REIT company. This Brexit thing will blow over and London will still be London. Remember the saying about Mr market in the Intelligent Investor and I think a lot of that applies here.
gamesinvestor
05 Jul 2016
Re: brokers notes "Net asset value of £9.19"g16cos -- You might be right m8, but businesses are often about cash flow.BLND's finance costs run at £518M last year against an operating cash flow of £294M.The assets could be sold in the event of strain on debt payments, but could they sell them in a dead market, and is £9.19 valuation of assets right at the top end of a property boom?Games -- I guess there are multiple ways of looking at it of course
g16cos
05 Jul 2016
Re: brokers notes Regarding Dividend cover. (From their website)As a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), British Land must follow certain rules relating to money it distributes to shareholders, and how those distributions are taxed. 90% of the tax-exempt profit from British Land's property rental business has to be distributed to shareholders. In other words low dividend cover is par for the course.
g16cos
05 Jul 2016
Re: brokers notes British Land have an amazing portfolio. Currently 99% let with average 9 year to first break. Net asset value of £9.19. In my opinion this fall is an opportunity to top up or build a new position. Directors bought last week which also shows confidence. Have we all forgotten what happened to the oil and commodity stocks just a few weeks and months ago and just look where they are now!! This is a lot to do with sentiment.
gamesinvestor
05 Jul 2016
Re: brokers notes " I think they are probably oversold."ummmm - seemingly not. It's down another 4.78% as I ntype to 538That's a yield of 5.5%, but that may not be that relevant with only a 1.2X cover on the dividend. BLND is already stretching the payouts and if occupancy falls with the post Brexit panic, then income could be squeezed and the divi cut.The house builders are getting absolutely reamed here.Redrow just hit 300p from a peak last year of about 466Taylor Wimpy 124p from 200p last yearPersimmon - 1369 from 2000Not sure where the bottom is here if finally the property bubble is bursting.Games -- Out for now - sold at 702 in March 2014 -- interesting company though
Rhigos
04 Jul 2016
Re: brokers notes EnuffSaid,"On the plus side, the out vote hasn't had much negative effect on the market so far. Markets down much less than I expected."With exception REITs and house builders, which suffered huge negative effects, and that I am regretfully over weight in 
Is the fall in BLND, -27% since referendum, justified. I think they are probably oversold.
EnuffSaid
24 Jun 2016
Re: brokers notes On the plus side, the out vote hasn't had much negative effect on the market so far. Markets down much less than I expected. As usual, the tobacco shares have done well on bad news. LOL.We'll see what tomorrow brings.
KEEPING CALM MIKE
24 Jun 2016
Re: brokers notes Bad call,got it well wrong, ouch. Well in for a penny in for a pound, K.C.M.
Damp Seaweed
24 Jun 2016
Return to an old favorite long @619
EnuffSaid
24 Jun 2016
Re: brokers notes You were saying?
KEEPING CALM MIKE
23 Jun 2016
brokers notes Brokers Notes very encouraging, but for my money, London is going to boom ahead once tomorrow morning the referendum vote is in and we are staying !!!. The market has been through a tough 6 months and confidence along with Investment will return and quality Property Stocks like this will benefit in the months/ years ahead, Great Long Term hold, along with Shafstbury, St Modwin, Land Security, Galiford Try, and others, in my opinion K.C.M.
nk1999
23 Apr 2016
Telegraph- Questor "The Questor Column:U.K. commercial property market is heading for a fall: Shares in real estate investment trusts, or REITs, have been extremely attractive for income hungry retail investors during the past seven years. However, the property market moves in cycles and there are an increasing number of signs that we have reached the top of the latest one, and that means investors chasing income could suffer painful losses of capital. Shares in REITs are driven by two factors. Firstly rental income from property has steadily risen as the U.K. economy recovered and companies need more space. Secondly U.K. property has become increasingly attractive for overseas investors to store their wealth, and this increase in demand has driven up property prices. However, there are a number of issues undermining this strong run. First up is that demand is drying up. The buying power of petrodollar rich sovereign wealth funds has been seriously undermined by the collapse in oil prices. In a classic economic perfect storm just as demand fades there is a tsunami of supply that is about to hit the market. In the London market there is 26 million sq ft of new office space due for completion within the next four years. The U.K. economic recovery that has been behind steadily rising rents is also running out of steam. The unemployment level is now rising and city bonuses are falling according to the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics. Political risk to the property market is also on the rise. The Brexit vote on June 23 could still go either way, and leaving the EU would undoubtedly be bad for U.K. property prices. Shares in British Land and Land Securities have fallen 20% during the past six months but this is not a buying opportunity as they still trade on more than 20 times forecast earnings. Time to sell. Real estate investment trusts. Questor says “Sell”."
II Editor
31 Mar 2016
NEW ARTICLE: A stock in one chart "Former City analyst Phil Oakley believes the fortunes of many companies can be summed up in a single financial chart. This week it's British Land.Commercial property has been a popular home for investors' money in recent years after taking a ..."[link]
Damp Seaweed
24 Feb 2016
Re: NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for ... I have a target buy in price of 550p. I think this was the price of the big placement a couple of years ago. So probably a strong support level.Also at this level the yield looks a little more acceptable.I may well have to wait until early summer before getting my price.
