Re: Q3 Trading update Nice plug for the website there
Re: Q3 Trading update ""Fundamentals look good and SP upward crossing the 200 day SMA."""Mr Jinks, on the surface, the fundamentals might "look" good, but as a property company British Land does not generate enough free cash flow to cover it's dividend.It's not a good idea to consider dividend cover related to earnings or profits, as these are artificial in a distressed situation.British Land's free cash flow relies on the sale of assets each year to supplement is cash cover to pay the dividend in full.So what you might think - British Land is in the business of selling assets so it should be included in the cash flow. Correct, but in a distressed market, no one is that willing to buy those assets, then the cash flow becomes vulnerable, BLND then has to cut it's dividend and the attraction of BLND shrinks, along with the share price.Some may disagree with this view and consider property companies as sure fire bets, however, property is not a one way bet and vulnerability will arise if interest rates increase and market sentiment gets worse -- the sentiment right now is really bad in London.Here is a link that explains the free cash flow, or lack thereof, giving BLND as one of the examples.[link] -- I hope it all works out fine, but remember that this is a leveraged finance company and is not immune to shocks -- look at what's happening to Deutch Bank as a guide.
Re: Q3 Trading update I agr
Re: Q3 Trading update Fundamentals look good and SP upward crossing the 200 day SMA. Despite uncertainty over Brexit IMHO this is a buy.
Times- Tempus Extracts:"........................... Speculative developments, not a business one wants to be in when there is uncertainty over the direction of the market, are only 5 per cent of the portfolio. British Land is in talks with potential occupiers of 1.4 million sq ft of property across four of its developments, including Canada Water where work has yet to start. The shares, off 22½p at 595½p, yield 4.8 per cent, but this does not seem the time to increase exposure to top-end London property.My advice AvoidWhy Too many uncertainties over top end of market"
Re: Q3 Trading update Lots of "analysts" just look at the P/E ratio. Because "E" for REITs includes gains and losses on property revaluations, this is a highly volatile number - and because the property valuations themselves are pretty flaky is is also a meaningless number. Better to look at share price vs operating income (rents minus costs), where all of a sudden BLND comes out miles ahead of everyone else. There's plenty of cash flow to pay the dividends. Buy!
Re: Q3 Trading update Brexit. Large ownerships in the City of London. They have long leases which is good, so even if banks leave they pay the rent for as long as the lease is. But the fear of the future is enough... I think. SL
Q3 Trading update Looks positive, as they say and yet share price falling and Liberium comes out with a Sell rec target 505p? Why?
Re: A good buy! Hi Yee WoThe reference to Gladstone Land in the chart was an error by me. I had selected 'LAND' which is the epic for Land Securities as the second line on the chart to compare against BLND. But as iii doesn't show the graph until AFTER you have hit the submit button (on my two computers anyhow), it was only after submitting that I found the chart showed Gladstone Land instead of Land Securities. I will try it again here and see if I can get it to work ... after 5 minutes it still says 'generating image please wait' so will hit submit and hope for the best.
Re: A good buy! aspace, What is the reference to "Gladstone Land" in the graph below?
Re: A good buy! IMHO there are lots of reasons to like this lack-lustre performing share:1. BLND is currently on a 30% discount to its 891p net asset value which makes it a fairly safe bet. More likely to go up than down. 2. Although the property companies always do seem to trade below their net asset value, 30% is excessive. 3. All the major property companies learned from their mistakes in the 1990s when they did speculative development. Nowadays they avoid this risk by developing only when they have substantial pre-lettings. 4. Their buildings are excellent quality. I have been in some and used to work as a consultant with British Land and Land Securities and a couple of others. Yet ironically despite their know-how they hold ZERO intangible assets on their balance sheets! This means you not only buy the shares at a discount to net tangible value but you also get all the intangible know-how for free. 5. At 4% the dividend yield is not spectacular but is acceptable and can be expected to rise over time. 6. Directors have a reasonable stake in the shares. So they should be about the safest companies available. On the grounds of Buffett's first rule of moneymaking ("never lose money" these are a buy as they should steadily and safely compound over many years forward. I also hold Land Securities which is slightly more diversified than British Land, and St Modwen who are a bit more niche in brownfield development, the latter having performed spectacularly over the past decade. And happy to continue holding all of them and topping up as I can.
Re: A good buy! Should have added, I think theres more to be gained by buying post this divi date withe the Brexit issue being addressed in March if TM sticks to her time tab
Re: A good buy! I don't know Toady27 reasons to buy but to me these seam fair value, unfortunately i did not have spare funds at the 590 mark and probaly hold as many as i should given i am holding at a slight loss (ditto HMSO)I think the chairmans statement in November was positive, they pay a reasonable and progressive dividend at 4.6% + with reasonable cover for the sector. I don't see the dividend retracting and the capital gains i think will be significant when Brexit issues are put to bed (if they ever are) as that issue alone was the big trigger to the share price fallI think like most UK based businesses there will be rise and falls in the share price for possible short term capital gains. FL
Re: A good buy! "It this price it seems a very good investment. Certainty not a share under 600"I bought on the 25th Nov at £5.909 on the basis that: - - I like businesses that throw off quarterly dividends.- I see BritishLand as a proxy for Mrs May's Brexit negotiations not entirely destroying the City of London and therefore the need for appropriate Real-Estate.today27 - What is your actual reasoning for the BUY recommendation?
A good buy! At this price it seems a very good investment. Certainty not a share under 600.