caesat
18 Dec 2017
Re: divi dates!! Tba feb 18
manxgold
18 Dec 2017
divi dates!! when is the next dividend payment from BKG, or should I ask,is there a divi still proposed?,thanks guys.
malj1
12 Dec 2017
Re: Rightmove or not It's worth thinking through that RM don't really cover new build, which is performing radically differently from the secondary market.Also stamp duty is choking off transactions at the upper end of the market. Say a property at £1m (not a palace, just a pleasant family home in London, SE, south) will incur ca £60k transaction overheads (SD, estate agent fees, solicitor fees, removal) which has to be funded out of spare savings. So as upper end transactions don't occur (notably in central London) then clearly the average price basket falls. Does this mean all prices are falling? A: not necessarily. You might want to think through if London is imploding, why are Telford doing so well? The problem is less about price & more that London site development is perforce always lumpy. Having just cleared a swathe of jv developments at asp ca £1m ea, BRK asp will fall until similar developments come on stream again (which they will in about 18-24 months).I don't know when the upper end stalled transactions come back on stream again, but the longer they are choked off, the more this builds up latent pricing pressure. At some point they return with a vengeance - as indeed played out around 09.
marktime1231
11 Dec 2017
Rightmove or not To celebrate finding a way back to the boards after this weekend's website works, a house price note from Rightmove and commentators say expect London house prices to fall next year by around 2-3%.Actually they already have tumbled. Go to their website for the raw data here ...plc.rightmove.co.uk/media/house-price-index/2017.aspx In April 2017 the Rightmove index had the average London house price peaking at £649K ... presumably the level at which BKG were making its monster first half profits. The same index just released for Dec 2017 shows the average London house price has fallen to £605K. On the 4,200 homes BKG hope to sell every year that takes £210M off the bottom line.A 3% fall in prices next year would trim off another £85M profit.Then imagine the slowing market means a 5% reduction in forward sales (why buy early in a falling market) while costs remains level ... might we be at the foothills of a property market "cycle".I agree that the accumulated BKG cash pile makes the forward dividend / buy back promise a sustainable prospect. Or makes them a target?OK, I will stop bleating on now. Make your own minds up and good luck.
Our Haven
08 Dec 2017
Re: Foolish me Well marktime1231, at least we agree on Bitcoin. Think you were not very generous to Berkeley in your detail as pointing out areas like forward sales and cash decline without mentioning the massive rise in cash reserves. Having topped up I will hold, already a profit of 5% today which I know can disappear with profit takers Monday but I think longer term I will be pleased to hold.
marktime1231
08 Dec 2017
Foolish me Sold too soon, again?Unbelievably good first half results ... £533M pre-tax profit on revenues of £1,607M in just 6 months; and has May just given London's role as the destination for cash buyers a future?Some small print worth reading in the results announcement ... 17/18 first half was the peak already, expect under £600M gross profit for the whole of 18/19 (see my previous post) eg a 30-40% decline; cash due on forward sales down 10% so far (see my previous post). Lot of commentary about affordable housing which is not where BKG make 33% margin.Trading volumes are thin, the sp has jumped today without mention of a super-dividend to go with super results and a super cash pile. Well done to those of you who held on, I have missed out on a 10% premium. I am unmoved though, at best this was a Hold and in my dim view everyone should have an exit lined up. Like Pidgley and Perrins have.No, I don't have any Bitcoin either.
oxotoo
08 Dec 2017
The PE ratio is still very low, about 9. This is lower than other house builders and the results continue improving.
Our Haven
08 Dec 2017
First Half Results Very good numbers across the board. The market will like these, watch the price rise.
marktime1231
24 Nov 2017
Re: One data point does not equal a trend, b... er, to April 2018
marktime1231
24 Nov 2017
One data point does not equal a trend, but this report via the DT today seems to agree with my fears:"Research by Barbour ABI found that housebuilding has stalled after a summer boom, as the value of contracts to build homes fell by half to £1.6bn in October, compared to £3.2bn last year. Meanwhile, the number of planning applications lodged to build new homes fell by a third in the third quarter of this year at 7,133, down from 10,338 a year ago."The budget measures aimed at encouraging low end housing association (council) type homes may counter this downturn, not much help at BKG though who are all about executive dormitory town homes and premium city centre flats. Stimulating the bottom of the market with cheaper new builds will simply make owner occupiers out of generation rent, with less effect the higher up the ladder you go.BKG financials to Apr 2017 will include top end of the market prices cooling, reduced new build activity and fewer advance sales, and maybe the downside of any surge to beat last year's deadlines for buy-to-let and stamp duty changes.I would not be surprised if profits slimmed to £500M with flat outlook, management will repeat it has confidence in returning target value to shareholders by whenever. Much of which is already in the bank, and the rest can be achieved from maintaining dividends at £2 pa ... not clever enough to know whether it would be sustainable from reduced cash flow.Not the end of the world, but not £39 a share.
marktime1231
22 Nov 2017
Re: Surely we have peaked? I could be completely wrong, but I am following my own conviction that we have seen the best of times. It would be a surprise but an announcement of unexpectedly and extremely good continuing financials and an aggressive period of buy-backing and we might see £39 again yet.Never too late to sell while you are just ahead. You have had some nice dividends along the way. That is the nice thing about BKG, it has been such a good value and income buy but has enjoyed little coverage compared to the likes of Barratt and Persimmon ... Pidgley is not everyone's cup of tea maybe?A whiff of a sell out or merger with ... might just make a winner out of you, and a fool out of me.
Warren Buffoon
22 Nov 2017
Re: Surely we have peaked? I'm clearly a rubbish investor having paid £36 a share two years ago.....Mwah, mwah, mwah . . . .
marktime1231
22 Nov 2017
Surely we have peaked? The dominant focus of BKG's lucrative business has been stupidly expensive flats in prime London. £812M profit on sales revenues of £2,723M to April 2017 is extreme. We have seen its sp develop from £24 to £39 over the year as a result, fuelled by super dividends and then buy backs.Demand for such property is surely sliding, accelerated by stamp duty and added pressures on landlords - perhaps boosting activity last FY to beat deadlines. If we lose or fear to lose a tranche of the international bankers and related financial services to Brexit, and we apply more scrutiny to other overseas especially cash buyers, the market will slump ... judging by top end house price settlement we are seeing that already. Other developers less hitched to the prime London market are still (pretending to be?) buoyant, but there has been cooling of prices in the dormitories around London too.BKGs costs will not fall but its return from developments on former gasometer sites or more houses in the mix or moving further out from prime London will not be so high ... the financial effects will come through, things have to retreat. BKG is debt free and has a terrific land bank, but it can't make money for its shareholders building premium property no-one wants or can afford to buy.Pidgley and Perrins have both sold big stakes more than once this year ... Pidgley has offloaded 2.5 million shares at prices £31.10 - £35.75 - £38.50 in Apr, Sep, Oct respectively. Sold a third of his stake, and maybe more disposals to come. Why do you think that is? Getting to the end of his lollipop, I think he is now 70, and banking the proceeds while his cleverly introduced buy-back programme has pushed the sp to a high.Nearly three years of actively trading this stock, I like BKG and its strong fundamentals, but a change in its market, financial performance and its ownership / management is on the cards. All very well saying it is trading on a p/e of just 8 today, but over the next couple of cycles if you reduce sales 15% and discount the margin 5-10% back to historic levels then things look radically different.I sold at £38.64 last month, sorry to have missed the £39+ peak but happy with the gain from £28.85. I will be back, when the dust has settled and the sp looks clearly good value again, at ... £33 maybe?
II Editor
29 Sep 2017
NEW ARTICLE: FTSE 100 ends Q3 on a high "September's been a month of two halves. Losing around 250 points in the space of a fortnight was not a great start, but, as we've seen all summer, buyers are never far away, even with the very real possibility of nuclear Armageddon.Up from a ..."[link]
Warren Buffoon
12 Sep 2017
Re: Director's sales I do believe I know what you are saying eadwig I've been a company director myself.BTW... I've still got those HSBC trackers. I've even got unit trusts I bought back in 1992 showing a 1,420% gain. (yes!)
