Eadwig
12 Oct 2016
Re: Added Today @2400 DS, "You have done well to get down to 2440p."Correction. Actually holding @2462. Lot going on at the moment and got figures mixed up - or possibly my ii portfolio is wrong, haven't checked at account level yet. You get the ball-park anyway.The active range trade is much bigger than the single tranche I'm holding so I my alter the trade and retain a few with ex-divi date due toward Xmas. If I am not assuming too much before it is declared. Hopefully 100p again, minimum.I mention this again, because I've looked in detail at several construction companies today, and four or five have odd dividend dates, with perhaps just 4 months between, then a long, long wait through to the next one. BKG is another example having declared last in mid August.Worth keeping that in mind, especially in a company like BKG where the dividend is indeed significant.RE: RDSB Yes, i thought yo umight be smarting a bit. I sold my last two tranches @2000p, so there you go. Don't think the sterling action could have been predicted, or the Tory party conference tone that triggered it. The opposite if anything. Plus, traders appear to be allowing themselves to fall for the OPEC 'cuts', I still don't buy it, but sorry if my writings on the subject swayed your decision. At least you did the right thing and did not sell out all at once, which some people seem to feel is obligatory in order not to spend an extra ten or twenty quid on one or two further sales. Daft!My remaining major oil holding not only pays (relatively small) divis in USD, it is priced in USD. (EOG.NYSE) My blunder with RDSB has been well set off by retaining that holding in preference, and I'm happy to be reducing exposure to the oil patch longer term anyway. Also being made up by HSBA soaring on the buyback and USD earnings and divis.If selling RDSB @2000p is the worst mistake I make this year - nay this quarter - I'll be doing a little jig of joy to myself, frankly. I've already turned over the cash I raised twice since selling a couple of weeks ago. Well, you can look at it that way - I have plenty of cash on hand as it happens.
Eadwig
12 Oct 2016
Re: Added Today @2400 DS, "I've also accumulated a few extra shares along the way. "I did that range trading in ANTO. Its ok if you have a longer term investment to add the shares to, but I didn't in ANTO so next range trade I cancelled after the buy and set a target for all shares instead.I've just managed to pull off about 5% profit in TEF in a two day range trade (It had been sat there a lot longer, but the market triggered the buy and the sell the last two days) which will help me average down there too.Some press characterising TEF as a profit warning, in fact results are inline with expectations, forward sales excellent (in London remember, but low end of market) and dividend raised.
handoverfist
12 Oct 2016
Re: Added Today @2400 Well you've both done rather better than me. Even including my lucky 2388 buy my average is 3035. I'm tempted to try and get my average down to less than 3000 really just because it looks a lot better. Not the best reason for buying!
Damp Seaweed
12 Oct 2016
Re: Added Today @2400 Eadwig,You have done well to get down to 2440p. I've been pursuing the same strategy but my average is still ~100p higher. Though, as I having been buying a fixed £ amount and then selling that same fixed amount on the bounce, then, in addition to lowering my average price, I've also accumulated a few extra shares along the way. I'm still reasonably confident that BKG will work out quite well eventually.ps I'm still sulking a bit about selling ~40% of my stake in RDSB the day before it broke out the top of its upper trading range. Probably the price of oil will fall back, but, currently the £/$ rate looks like a more structural shift. So buy back opportunities may require considerable patience.
Eadwig
12 Oct 2016
Re: Added Today @2400 handoverfist, " Most of my other holding was bought in at prices rather higher unfortunately."So was mine, but I've averaged down, sold a tranche, averaged down.My long term holding average is now @2440p. Previously I was buying around @3000p and selling @3300p, adjusted that down since Brexit.
handoverfist
11 Oct 2016
Re: Added Today @2400 Over 8% yield and dividends covered. Can these get any lower? Well they can I bought a few more at 2388p at 9:15 and they seem to have started back up. Most of my other holding was bought in at prices rather higher unfortunately.
Eadwig
10 Oct 2016
Added Today @2400 A little under, in fact. In the hope of current bad reaction in the sector being over done on the back of apparent government intent to denude the sector of skilled workers. Just looking for a little bounce back for a trade. I continue to hold another tranche for the longer term.Last news I heard, the government was already back-pedalling from that stance. Hopefully that will continue.Bit of a gamble, if Brexit woes really set in, it could be a while before we see a turn around, especially given the time of year when house sales tend to drop off to some extent. Although not when buying off plan in new developments, come to think of it. The chart below shows that BKG has been less resilient than some in the sector, due to its less diverse market and other factors like higher stamp duties etc.Yielding well over 8% at the current price, with the next divi date in December. 8%+ yield is often seen as a danger sign, so some good news wouldn't go amiss. If that doesn't attract a few desperate pension funds in I'd be surprised. Time will tell. I hope the yield doesn't get too high. If it does, the board might decide to cut which would send a very bad sign.
divvent argie
03 Oct 2016
Re: Back in Out at 2594 way sooner than expected. Nice share to trade and looking for sub 2500 again. Tories boost for builders hasn't done much here but I suppose they are in the wrong end of the market for that.
fitcontroller
03 Oct 2016
Re: Valuing housebuilders these are a steal at this price.
divvent argie
03 Oct 2016
Re: Valuing housebuilders Excellent article, thanks for putting it up
Eadwig
30 Sep 2016
Re: Broker notes Bowman, " The best is to look over as many Brokers views as possible and take a median view."This is exactly what is done when you hear commentators saying about results that they 'came in ahead of expectations' or 'missed expectations'. This median view is often referred to as the 'consensus view'.It is especially important on Wall Street where the metric seems to be taken much more seriously and 'a beat' or 'a miss' will very much move the share price, even on quarterly results, especially in nervous markets.Not to be mixed up with the company's own expectations, which tend to be a forecast range for profits given at the start of an accounting period. If the company then lowers these expectations as the period moves on, that is usually referred to as a profit warning - and can often hammer a share price by 5% or 10% overnight.Commentators usually distinguish between 'analysts expectations' and 'own expectations'.Yahoo finance give a 'consensus view' for analysts expectation for US companies, normally measured in EPS, but a whole range of basic metrics are often predicted, depending on the sector.I'm unsure if Yahoo finance UK does it for UK listed companies. I'm not aware of any other free site that does it either, come to think of it.Just thought I'd have a bit of a waffle there. I hope it didn't sound too patronising!
Rhigos
30 Sep 2016
Valuing housebuilders This article by Phil Oakley well worth reading IMO:[link]
divvent argie
30 Sep 2016
Re: Back in Me as well - today at 2474. Looking for +5% in sp. Fingers crossed.
Dallara
29 Sep 2016
Back in Bought at 2545
Baker2005
23 Sep 2016
Re: Broker notes bear in mind that most brokers have their own companies self interests in mind. They may be positioning to try and drive a price up or down depending on their existing positions or plans.
