Berkeley Group Holdings (The) Live Discussion

marktime1231 10 Dec 2019

Something strange going on Do you think someone is having their job done for them? Where can I apply, I think Citigroup? In case you were wondering current share price is around 4570p. Mon 09 December 2019 15:18 Canaccord downgrades Berkeley Group after recent run higher "Analysts at Canaccord Genuity downgraded their recommendation for shares of Berkeley Group Holdings on the back of the recent run-up in the share price “against a less attractive risk/reward ratio”. The most important driver of the homebuilder’s performance going forward would be the outcome of the general election and its impact on political stability and policy, analyst Aynsley Lammin said in a research note sent to clients. “A good outcome could result in improving confidence and a better London housing market. The group is well-positioned, in our view, to take advantage of how the macro and housing backdrop develops from here,” he explained. Despite that, said Lammin: “Over the long term, the group remains an impressive deliverer of shareholder returns. In the near term, given the recent run in the share price and less compelling valuation, we downgrade to a ‘hold’ (from ‘buy’) against a less attractive risk/reward ratio.” Lammin did, however, hike his target price on the shares from 3,850.0p to 4,570.0p." Lammin you shameless plonker. Just in case anyone is in any doubt he is just following the judgement of others, here is what he said just 1 working day previously … Fri 06 December 2019 11:49 Canaccord stays at ‘buy’ on Berkeley Group, praises ‘extremely good’ management "Analysts at Canaccord Genuity stayed at a ‘buy’ on shares of Berkeley Group despite the recent run-up in the luxury homebuilder’s share price. In particular, the Canadian broker highlighted the outfit’s “very strong” cash balance and land bank and forward sold position. The former two of those attributes supported the firm’s multi-year profit guidance and capital return commitments out to 2025, analyst Aynsley Lammin said in a research note sent to clients. “The Group well to take advantage of how the market develops in 2020 - it has the cash to invest in land if suitable opportunities arise and land bank to ride out further market uncertainty if needed,” the analyst added. Lammin also heaped praise on Berkeley’s management team and the company’s ability to deliver attractive returns for shareholders throughout the cycle, explaining that it was “again in a great position to manage this current cycle”. “Valuation looks fairer relative to the sector after enjoying a strong share price run recently but the Group is in good shape.” Lammin’s 3,850.0p target price for Berkeley Group’s shares was unchanged."

marktime1231 06 Dec 2019

Something strange going on More bilge today. Not least the assertion that BKG is now a Birmingham builder. One write up of BKG interim results reporting a 43% drop in revenues and a 28% drop in eps was “planned”. Anticipated maybe? Anyway the collapse in demand for stupidly expensive boxes in London has at last hit home. No surprise the report is big on its good assets (paper estimates of future profit from its landbank) and net cash (sitting on £1060M) and pays little attention to the massive decline in sold volumes (-31%) and a freefall average selling price (-13%). It seems to me the idea that this is shrewd performance to sustain it through the cycle has been entirely inflated by what it admits has been a 3 year programme of under-investment and a shuddering halt in building activity, nursing cash rather than doing business. The net landbank of plots has grown by over 2,000 chiefly because BKG has been doing less building! Somehow gross margin is an obscene 36% presumably because sales are still coming through while new building activity has dropped off, it says it is because of “the mix” but I wonder if there has also been a squeeze on. Using cash to shore up the stock with buybacks while the Directors offload, no longer paying out the generous dividends which first attracted private investors to BKG. Canaccord today declare BKG a “BUY” based on its view of strong management strategy … except that the two key guys Pidgley (72) and Perrrins (54), have been selling up as though they are about to exit. Cannaccord restate target price 3870p, which is an incredible 15% below current sp of 4570p. Cannaccord you are nuts if you believe that means BKG is a “BUY”. For some reason stock was up on this confirmation that the absurd London market of selling houses, with few questions, to overseas cash buyers at obscene margins has shut down. The only reason the sp is £45 must be that BKG itself is up for grabs and the land bank/cash pile is so attractive it might get a premium bid from someone who actually does want to build houses. I sold out when I foresaw this “planned” collapse and imagined a re-entry at about 3400p when the market cycles round after Brexit etc. Nursing through the trough means a further deline in eps, things will get worse before they get better. As an income investor this is no longer attractive. We still have a housing crisis because you can’t force the builders who own the land to keep building houses in order to sell them cheaper. Net migration has cooled. I think Help-to-Buy is now coming to the end too. Oh btw. No menton of an interim dividend at all. Presumably because there isn’t one. The remaining £125M of “shareholder returns” up to 31 March 2020 must all be going on buybacks. Perhaps that is why this is a “BUY”. Not for me.

marktime1231 18 Oct 2019

Something strange going on Pidgley and Perrins offloading further large stakes “on the open market” in their closely-held companies at £42 (which seems full value to me) only for the share price to kick on to £45. Since when did the share price rise so steeply while the bosses are selling up … unless there are tee’d up buyers and a bid / takeover in the wings? Is this an orchestrated exit? Market makers buying now because the bid would have to be £50+? Who wants to buy BKG’s famously well-accumulated land bank while £.$ is still cheap and the possibility of a renewed appetite for stupidly expensive riverside boxes in London? Overseas wealth fund more likely than a domestic housebuilder? Strategic funds which have announced a pull back from oil etc needing to put their megabucks somewhere else? Pure speculation of course, but something strange is happening.

Uncle_Doug 12 Sep 2019

why the 3% price rise today? Current share price 40.50 so I guess it came right in the end? Can’t bet bricks and mortar as a solid defensive investment in troubled times.

fredaveevers 02 Oct 2018

why the 3% price rise today? Current share price 35.05 so yesterdays little foray has cost the shareholders another £123k. Wonder what our average buy back price has been so far? Doubtless it will all come right in the end?

fredaveevers 01 Oct 2018

why the 3% price rise today? last share buy back 26/9 @ £36.70 x 62k - price now £35.61. Another £62k+ of shareholders funds wasted? beginning to worry about the financial control here. directors doing ok though- that’s the main thing!

dipanshah37 20 Sep 2018

why the 3% price rise today? Why the 3% price rise today?

manxgold 18 Sep 2018

Where have all the discussion posts gone? You are dead right re the ease of use of this “new improved” discussion board, I don’t know if this is intentional or not but they have made a right pigs ear of it.

malj1 21 Jun 2018

Where have all the discussion posts gone? Can’t say I’m a fan of this new redesigned site either. The old one was simpler, speedier & more to the point. It’s harder to follow the discussion topics through. Threading always seems to hide more than it reveals. Judging by the disappearance of many of the usual posters I suspect they are voting with their feet. Maybe that was the objective. Ranting aside BKG looks good to me. They’ll tread water somewhat, but be a good income hold, until London remerges from its sleep/brexit panic. But there’s an awesome dearth of supply, which again stokes substantial latent pricing pressure. I have no idea when this kicks off, but the longer the delay the greater the eventual uplift.

Adelaide 20 Jun 2018

Where have all the discussion posts gone? axolotl: Last one for BKG seems to be March 26 I suspect that if anyone replies to this post I will never know and never be able to find it I’ve more or less given up finding anything useful in iii’s ‘improved’ site what a mess Well here is a reply telling you that you will get an alert on your account symbol at the top right. You might get a email as well. Just click on the account symbol and then the link to the reply to get to it. For me, this is a great positive re the new site - saves looking for a reply.

axolotl 20 Jun 2018

Where have all the discussion posts gone? Last one for BKG seems to be March 26 I suspect that if anyone replies to this post I will never know and never be able to find it I’ve more or less given up finding anything useful in iii’s ‘improved’ site what a mess

Warren Buffoon 26 Mar 2018

Followed Followed Mr Pidgley . . . . sold out today

shovelier 16 Mar 2018

Re: why 5% down? I got the feeling from reading the RNS that the general tone was not optimistic even though the figures were ok. It seems to be a sentiment thing but I’m quite happy to hold. These house builders are cyclical so you can either jump in and out with the seasons or hold for the long term. I’m still 70% positive on this one despite today’s drop. Maybe time to lock in some profit.

axolotl 16 Mar 2018

why 5% down? The results seem to be in line with expectations so what's up? Or down, rather. Could it be a fear of corrupt Russians selling their empty London flats and taking their filthy corrupt lucre away? I certainly hope so. It's about time we all started to think of property as something to live in. And if the readjustment to civilisation makes my shares go down (if only in the short term in all probability) I'm happy to accept it.

numberbiter 24 Dec 2017

Re: Foolish me Marktime, I learnt a long time ago that being 'too clever' in predicting the future leads to poor investment decisions.Berkeley Group is one of the easier shares to work out as the directors specify in their Annual Report what is going on. At around 4,000p per share the market is building in to the share price no growth whatsoever. We know (because the Annual Report told us) that next year will be worse than the current year, so growth will be negative. BUT, long term growth (which is what share prices are based in) will still be highly positive. So even at 4,200p this share is a hold.Now, I don't think that many investors will understand this and when the company announces reduced profits next year (despite the fact that we were warned) the share price will come tumbling down. This, of course, will give us an amazing buying opportunity.