holland44
23 Mar 2015
Re: holland44 - SEC BIOG - I agree the discount could still narrow, and there aren't any clear sell signals, except the feeling that things are looking toppy - but then investors in BIOG have probably felt that all the way up over the last year.SEC - I agree the charts are looking favourable for the share price to stop falling and resume the conditions for future growth - though who knows at what rate. SEC was flat for over six months last year, then had an unexplained boom to a premium last autumn. Edison's research note dated 20 March 2015 shows a gradual narrowing of the discount over several years, presumably in response to SEC's good NAV results and long-term track record, but the average discount over the last year has been 6.4% and it's currently 6.73%, which hardly suggests a rapid return to a premium. Edison say SEC's manager "attributes the recent widening [of the discount] largely to small retail investor flows driven by CGT considerations", but I've no idea if this is a sensible reading or not.My perspective on SEC is that for a small-company trust that behaves rather like a private equity specialist, it was pretty unusual for it to move to a premium, and the recent retrenchment has restored the trust to a more typical position. If I were going to invest in SEC, I'd do so for normal investment reasons, not because I expect some kind of miraculous pickup in the current weeks.
sage in the hills
20 Mar 2015
Re: holland44 - SEC Suggest also try AFC, SIA, PetrofacSAGE
sage in the hills
20 Mar 2015
Re: holland44 - SEC Lots of positive indicators for the next big leg-up.SAGE
sage in the hills
20 Mar 2015
Re: Anyone thinking of trading? Could all be re-based by a fresh climb.There is tons of pharma need in the world pop, and the profit potential attracts plenty of fresh investment.SAGE
stressboy
20 Mar 2015
Re: holland44 - SEC Cheers cimbom I've been keeping an eye on SEC, and seeing as I'm now out of BIOG (despite my best efforts to cancel the trade)... I am very, very tempted. I will take the weekend to mull it over and to look into one or two others.
cimbom
20 Mar 2015
Re: holland44 - SEC I topped SEC up two weeks ago to see discount nearly reaching 14% during midday trading on Tuesday, buyers emerged not to allow discount stretch beyond 10% and looks like upward move is on its way!Edison research suggests SEC could shoot north rapidly.
Rusty Jock
20 Mar 2015
Re: holland44 - SEC HollandYour analysis is spot on , but I wouldn't get too hung up about Bollinger bands on collective ITs . Certainly , the run up from 750 to 850 today just in a few days is stoking the fire . In this week's run up , the discount has narrowed a few points , but is still almost 5% which is still a fair bit away from the nil discount at which the share price has run out of steam in the past .So the share price can run further from here , but you need to watch any narrowing of the discount down to zero , and if it goes on to a small premium that becomes red flag territory for me based on past history with BIOG .But nobody suggested buying new positions at these levels . The topic was about taking profi
stressboy
20 Mar 2015
holland44 - SEC Sorry for the off topic people. Just had a look at SEC ... .. could it be about to resume it's uptrend?On the 3 year, weekly chart the 26MA has provided support in the past. We are at that point now. Meanwhile stoch, RSI and MACD are oversold on daily and weekly charts...... Any opinion H44? (I see you have posted there before)
stressboy
20 Mar 2015
Re: Anyone thinking of trading? Thanks holland44, I much appreciate your taking the time to post.My comment was more if you were thinking to trade BIOG, is this not getting overbought and also nearing a trend or traceline meaning resistance to the continued upward movement. So, as you say, it could be argued that much of this up run MAY have been completed. I think we are on the same page, which is good to see, I’m a bit of a novice in this game.The only place we may differ is you are probably thinking why trade???? And you may well be right!Anyway. I did place a limit sell about 836. This morning before the market opened I tried to cancel it and had issues with the website. I couldn’t cancel it and so I am out. Frustrating given the current price! I will not be buying back until I see a more suitable entry, as I did in February.
cimbom
20 Mar 2015
Re: Anyone thinking of trading? What a pity I did not invest more heavily in January! Having experienced the downturn last spring I was a little cautious. I have no doubt there will be ups and downs but next time there is a downturn I will be buying more!
Kingel
20 Mar 2015
Re: Anyone thinking of trading? I hope lambrini girl didn't sell all her shares @ her sale price of 550!!
holland44
20 Mar 2015
Re: Anyone thinking of trading? Stressboy - your thinking on 11 Feb makes sense to me, and your purchase timing was good - well done! As to whether to buy in now, both BIOG and IBT had a bullish technical indicator (Symmetrical Continuation Triangle) around 5 March but their target prices have now been reached and the SPs are pushing the upper boundaries of their Bollinger ranges (a complete reversal from 11 Feb). CCI and RSI and the Stochastic are all looking peaky too.Arguably there is some more to go to hit the trace line you suggested starting in June and July 2014, but I suspect much of this upward run has completed, so it's not a good time to put in new money. What do you think?
stressboy
19 Mar 2015
Re: Anyone thinking of trading? Cheers Rusty, I'm pretty positive this is in a long term uptrend, you clearly think the same. ... .. interesting to hear the steps you take to monitor the sector.I managed to trade the last dip ok and am very tempted to do the same again. Clearly your from the more sensible 'forget that nonsense, just leave the money invested' camp.The only thing is that dip might not happen when I think it will happen (there's always a retrace at some point!)Food for thought. Thanks for the post.
Rusty Jock
19 Mar 2015
Re: Anyone thinking of trading? I am guided by the Nasdaq Biotech index and the PE ratios of the main holdings , in addition to the discount to NAV.All of these are still supportive .I have sold some earlier this year but that was just to rebalance the size of my Healthcare investments . But I continue to hold these long term or until the parameters turn negative .BIOG has been one of my best investments EVER , and the Biotech sector continues to offer excellent future returns . I don't want to be out of BIOG , unless prospects change for the worse .
stressboy
19 Mar 2015
Anyone thinking of trading? So... if you plot the 1 year chart you could draw a rising trend line through the June and July 2014 peaks, the December 14 peak and the January 15 peak. That should provide resistance and around 840p? Maybe slightly higher.SO ... do we trade and wait on a retrace to the support line? ...tricky when we are trading at a discount to NAV of 6.5% that may just blow the resistance out the water? ...Anyone else got a view?
