stressboy
07 May 2015
Re: Last spring This is a relatively new approach of mine to try and trade, I did some quick calcs and it can really push some great gains into the stratosphere. The risk is of course missing the boat and so you need to try and find a few options to trade and hope if you miss one the next bus is following close behind. Like most of my best ideas I'll probably make a mess of it and end up being something I'll wish I never bothered with!!Thanks again for the response, H44... .. out of interest what website/software do you use for charting? I only use III and I can't see KST as an indicator option.
holland44
07 May 2015
Re: Last spring Thanks stressboy for your comment. As Dragons Teeth said, this is a volatile trust, and I for one don't have the nerves or the time to be constantly trading in and out of BIOG in an attempt to time the market.There is a strong argument in favour of sticking to your guns if you want to share in all the innovative, disruptive change of biotech, and therefore one should simply hold on through the slumps until things recover; that way you also don't lose out on the gains by mis-timing your entry back in. Equally, slumps of 25-30% hurt, and with all the information out there, it ought to be possible to time your departure and re-entry following some broad trends. You may lose out by not selling quickly enough, or holding off on your re-entry, but you won't suffer the full effects of the slump either.I like the Intermediate KST indicator combined with MACD and some of the other shorter-term ones, as an Intermediate crossover is often a good sign of a change in trend for a share. I know I'm unlikely to catch the real top or bottom, but I do seem to be do better overall than simply passively sitting there.I used to look at Bollinger lines too, until someone pointed out that they are best considered in relation to the share price of single companies, not collective vehicles like worldwide generalist investment trusts which have a multiplicity of companies and regions within their share price. Perhaps Bollingers are more relevant though for trusts like BIOG, which are stand-ins for a lot of companies working in a similar field.
stressboy
06 May 2015
Re: Last spring The share price is certainly looking a lot weaker than it did a month ago, and everyone has to acknowledge the SP rise has been meteoric, and with a rise like that it does make you think there has to be some correction at some point.As rugosplants said the SP fell through the lower support of the more recent lows. Looking further back I noted a possible other trendline that could lend support near 620p.I did buy back in at 760p, taking the chance that the share price would find support at the lower Bollinger.Each day that passes it looks less certain this is happening. I'll be out again if this doesn't begin to show strength soon. It really is difficult to see where there is any support (chart wise) north of 650p.Quite like your posts H44, tend to make me think twice about my logic. Sage also appreciate your post the other night ... what's that old saying about May?? And what happened last spring as you say?Thanks to both you guys for making me have a good think about what I'm doing. I really am more and more convinced I should be out of here..... lets see how we finish the week.
holland44
06 May 2015
Re: Last spring Another chartist way of looking at this would be to observe that the SP growth since late summer 2014 has been unusually fast; if you look further back into 2011-2014 and extend the trendline from there, it suggests the SP has got ahead of itself and is likely to fall back to 600-650, where the 50-day Moving Average may provide some support, as it did in April-June 2014.The Intermediate KST indicator has also moved well below the signal line, again as it did in April-July 2014. The MACD indicator is still very high at around 45, but is moving sharply lower.IBT is showing the same trends, which suggests it's a sensible time to be out of these trusts.
stressboy
05 May 2015
Re: Last spring Interestingly you can draw a trendline between the lows of mid May 2104, mid July 2014 and mid Oct 2014. This trendline would suggest a possible bottom of around 618p.Given the year high of 850 from which we have retraced, to hit 618p would mean a drop of ……..27%What was it you said we saw in 2014? Of course, things can't be planned out like that but the coincidence is uncanny!
sage in the hills
05 May 2015
Last spring in 2014, Biog retraced from 550p to 400p thats approx 28 % off ?SAGE
Dragons teeth
05 May 2015
Re: Lower Bollinger bounce? Last Fri morning Biog was down 3.5% as I was about to go out, I took a deep breath and held off selling, by the time I returned late evening it was up 1.5%, a near enough 5 % swing. That's just how Biog is , a volatile fund, and that volatility is likely to remain for some time. If you can hold your nerve over a long time period this will usually come good, on the other hand wtfdik 
Galahads Apprentice
05 May 2015
Re: Lower Bollinger bounce? Thank v much stressboy ..Hope so too, but it will be as much luck as judgement on my part as I'm still very much a novice!
stressboy
01 May 2015
Re: Lower Bollinger bounce? I did think I was premature the other day.... but was too fixated on the bollinger. Now the Stochastics really do look to have bottomed. You may just have called it perfectly - I certainly hope so! Good luck.
Galahads Apprentice
01 May 2015
Re: Lower Bollinger bounce? Just jumped on here, hoping the diving may be done..
Rusty Jock
29 Apr 2015
Re: Lower Bollinger bounce? Index is INDEXNASDAQ:NBI , and it is still falling tonight now down to 3570 which is down another 1% as I type . If this continues BIOG will probably be weaker again tomorrow .
stressboy
29 Apr 2015
Re: Lower Bollinger bounce? Cheers guys for the responses...so the SP finishes the day recovering to somewhere near the lower Bollinger... lets hope this is the support. Rusty - how do you monitor the Nasdaq biotech index? Is it the ticker IBB?...
Rusty Jock
29 Apr 2015
Re: Lower Bollinger bounce? BIOG has fallen from its recent high of around 850p to around 760p , a drop of 10.5% .The Nasdaq Biotech index has fallen from around 3830 to around 3610 , a drop of just under 6% .I think the fall in BIOG is overdone at this point .The only problem is the possibility of further falls in US Biotech companies which may or may not happen . As I type this the index may be stabilising , but who knows .I also just added at around 755p for a bounce trade , but have a long position on BIOG that I am happy to run until such times as Biotech companies run out of steam .
rugosaplants
29 Apr 2015
Re: Lower Bollinger bounce? Lower support line has been breached, which would normally mean sell. But on previous occasions, this sign has been followed by a strong rise. So, if you have the funds, buy a few.
stressboy
29 Apr 2015
Re: Lower Bollinger bounce? Well this is annoying.... had looked at the pivot point at 747p and placed an automatic buy.... then thought better of it once I looked at the lower Bollinger. (so I bought at 760.7) ... what's the SP? 741p,..Ho hum.
