musker ron
19 Jan 2017
Re: Trading Update Thanks Rhigos for that. If FCF is negative and I see it has been negative for the last 5 years, how do you think they are paying the dividend? I also see net borrowings have also increased over the same period. Perhaps the divis are being paid out of debt. If so, something has to give eventually
Rhigos
19 Jan 2017
Re: Trading Update Yesterday there was a gold cross for BHY as 20 day EMA crossed rising (just) 60 day SMA. Said by some to be a buying opportunity.Trading update looks fair and will explain recent rise in SP.I bought into BHY on 22 Sep 2016 at 200p. Share price only recently started to show upward trend. I bought because of fundamentals including progressive dividends.They have following forecast:yield of 3.2% covered 3.3x, EPS growth of 22.4%, PE 9.5 which suggests not over priced.ROC and ROCE both around 10.5% so fair particularly compared with 3 year average of around 7%.Gearing a modest 23.2%.On the down side there is an issue with Free Cash Flow. Price/FCF -16 and FCF Conversion -73%.
Eadwig
18 Jan 2017
Trading Update As ii appear not to have received the RNS:RNS Number : 3836U Boot(Henry) PLC 18 January 2017Trading Update"The Board of Henry Boot PLC issues the following trading update for the year ended 31 Dec 2016 ahead of its full year results to be announced on Friday, 24 March 2017.December 2016 was, as expected, a busy month from a deal completion perspective. Certain land and property development deals completed in line with our expectations and the month also saw a total of 44 residential completions at our JV house builder, Stonebridge Projects, and The Chocolate Factory in York. In addition, construction work on the Aberdeen Exhibition and Conference Centre development is ahead of schedule resulting in marginally higher profit recognition for the year. We have also now received the draft investment property valuation data for our portfolio for 31 December 2016 which was as expected.Taking the above into account, the Board now expects that profit before tax and earnings per share for the year ended 31 December 2016 will be slightly ahead of market expectations.Furthermore, and notwithstanding the continuing macroeconomic concerns regarding the EU Referendum, the committed and contracted activity we already have in place means we start 2017 in an excellent position to achieve yet another year of further progress, delivering growth in long-term shareholder value.We look forward to updating shareholders further on 24 March 2017 with our full year results announcement."Short and to the point, 'slightly' ahead of market expectations. I wonder how far ahead they need to come in to actually get this stock price shifting.I had another look at the Chocolate factory last night. The clock tower prestige apartments are going to be pretty small, and I reckon they can only fit 3 in the tower itself (there wont be an apartment on the same level as the clock faces). Obviously they wont be in this year's results, but they're not going to add very much to next year, unless they can really maximise the lower part of the building. The go ahead with the once planned hotel on the site would be a major prestige project, I have a feeling that is unlikely to happen anytime soon and perhaps never, unfortunately.
pearlsasinger
18 Jan 2017
PBIT to be slightly ahead.... Today's RNS is very positive and I am delighted to be a holder in this company,BUT the share price does not seemto follow the various company progressstatements.Hopefully this time will be different!
Eadwig
10 Jan 2017
Re: Premium Planning Permission All measurements entirely within the context of it still being within Barratts. I bet not many people paying those high end prices realise their buying a Barratt house. Which is why they have different brands of course.
dazedandconfused
10 Jan 2017
Re: Premium Planning Permission Just a little info from darn sarf - PJ Livesey managed a paper mill regeneration into high-end housing (some flats, some semis) in Maidstone about ten years ago; they were unknown here, but traded marketing on their 'northern mill' renovation work. All went well with planners etc but then the 2008-9 recession hit sales (and asking prices) drastically - all units finally sold out about two years later, but i guess at reduced profit. Have heard no quibbles about quality from people living there, which is good sign for Terry's site. (ps. must say i giggled at you saying David Wilson Homes was the high-end quality builder of Barratts - depends what you measure 'high' against? Not thought so in Essex!)
Eadwig
10 Jan 2017
Trading Update Due? Sometime this week or next I think. I've been a bit concerned about the share price weakening as the date approaches, but it came back well today.At the half year point HBY guided profits would be ahead of expectations at that time. They did see a slow down for a time after the Brexit vote, however, in August they reported more or less business as usual. It should include the news about the York site I discussed in previous posts, but much more important will be the start of work on the Aberdeen Council conference and exhibition centre which is BHY's biggest development by far, though they aren't the leading developer on the site.BHY will receive design and planning fees from Aberdeen Council now the lead developer has started work. BHY bought land adjacent to this site and have secured planning permission for a business park. That will be incorporated as part of the whole scheme which also comprises a Hilton Hotel and another hotel is seeking to finalise planning permission. There's also an energy centre ... I'm guessing thats about oil and gas being Aberdeen.£300m and £333m I've read in BHY docs describing the Aberdeen development whereas York is rated at just £45m and the Barnsley town centre renovation contract won has been mentioned at £30m and also £35m, which shows the importance of Aberdeen to them. Due for completion in 2019.There is also the Manchester Kampus project worth £200m which the update will hopefully confirm has seen demolition and site preparation get underway in the Autumn. Completion planned in 2019 which shows the fast pace of some of these larger projects and the strength of BHY's pipeline of work.The Markham development project worth around £75m has had major on time completions which should see an inflow of revenues, which will be reflected in profits on this year's results, hopefully. BHY recently renewed their relationship with Derbyshire County Council on this project that started in 2003 with a partnership between the two. 4 more years of Markham in the pipeline which may see the completion of the business and logistics hub on Junction 29 of the M1. (It has been a bit of a slow burner, reading between the lines of the quotes from both parties in the local media) but seems to be speeding up a little now with several more completions expected on the site next year to add to the 40 businesses based there now.Those are the major Property investment and developments but there are several other smaller ones which were completed in the first half and others that may have completed late 2016 or may fall in early 2017.BHY have been working on all that stuff for a long time and its all lining up as a very nice pipeline going into the new year and will be 'cash generative' for at least 2 years, during which more projects should be added. The lead time for planning permissions is quite worrying, especially where BHY don't get paid for much effort until all is in place, like with Aberdeen. I'm assuming they have some cover should planning permission fail to be granted at the last moment. Aberdeen and the cut backs in the UK oil and gas industry was just such a situation waiting to happen, at least to the outsider looking on.Land Sales is the other big revenue driver and they were doing very well in the last update, way ahead of 2015, but slightly front-loaded to the first 6 months as far as I can tell. If first half performance was to be matched then the final results will show a large increase in year on year profits.The construction business is ticking over nicely if not exactly shooting the lights out and will get a boost from work starting on the Olympic Legacy Park in Sheffield, completion due in 2017H1. The plant hire seems to be very steady, which is another indicator of 'business as usual', at least in the north of the UK, despite the Brexit vote shock. I'm not sure I see a whole lot of value being added by this part of the business.The last real
Eadwig
10 Jan 2017
Re: Premium Planning Permission TX2, ".Is the rest of the site being cleared?"The rest of the site was cleared probably 18 months ago of the lesser quality buildings surrounding the classic grade II listed factory and fantastic HQ office buildings. Adjacent are wholly new build flats and houses, certainly on the York side of the factory buildings, and already have people living in them. They've been built by David Wilson Homes, the higher end brand of Barratts I think they are, and I think they're pretty much completed. The HQ building is going to be some kind of 'care village' I think, or at least that was the plan once.BHY have the factory building itself and surrounds as phase 2 as far as I can tell. Some apartments in the main building are already bought and on the market for rent at around £1500 per month for a 2 bed apartment in the main factory complex termed 'The Residence'. BHY built them pre-sold or rented to de-risk their involvement, but obviously from what has been said their payment received does differ depending on the price achieved. I'm guessing now, but I believe BHY are concerned with renovation and construction while PJ Livesey market the finished units in a joint venture agreement. They are taking the 'luxury living' approach to marketing this site and have 1 bedroom apartments starting at $205k listed for sale in 'The Residence' and other sizes with prices up to about £750k I think. It is an impressive site and the whole of it designated a conservation zone.No surprises to me that BHY are saying that they have been achieving higher than expected valuations, York has been a housing hot spot since the mid-late eighties. Even with high apartment rents and quarterly maintenance bills this site was always going to sell like hot cakes. There are obvious opportunities for local shops and services which I've seen no one moving to take advantage of yet. See below...I've heard and seen nothing about the hotel and convenience store (which will be a gold mine in that area) that BHY originally were also supposed to be building on the site. Meanwhile, planning permission has been given for a 97 bed 'apart-hotel' almost across the road on another site entirely and an extra 107 rooms to expand the Grand Hotel nearer the centre but also more or less the racecourse side of the city and walking distance.Just today a full planning application for a 120 bed Moxy hotel in the city centre has been formerly delivered to the council joining applications already under consideration for the conversion of the large Ex-Aviva Insurance building to be converted into a hotel plus another 146 bed hotel on a city centre site. York published a 'hotel strategy' in 2014 which stated that hotel developments should concentrate on quality, not quantity, because of the pressure it would place on existing hotels. So, where that leaves BHY and the Chocolate Factory site hotel scheme, I know not. Maybe they already have planning permission, I'm unsure, the council messed about with the empty site for a full 10 years before work finally started. And the general public accuse housebuilders of delaying developments to keep house prices high.Eadwig, who went to primary school right next to Terry's and coincidentally used to live around the corner from Henry Boot's HQ in Sheffield.
TX2
09 Jan 2017
Re: Premium Planning Permission Thanks interesting to have a local update on "The Chocolate Works" development.The Tower & its associated building are only a smallish part of the 14 acre factory complex.Is the rest of the site being cleared?I assume PJ Livesey who specialise in this type of work are part funding the project.I am now into my 15th year of holding Henry Boot shares,the only share I have continuously held longer is James Latham the timber merchant.
pearlsasinger
09 Jan 2017
Re: Premium Planning Permission Very interesting Eadwig.I was unaware of this situation.(holder)
Eadwig
09 Jan 2017
Premium Planning Permission An absolutely premium project right next to York racecourse. It seems to be going ahead very well, but this silly idea of public access to the clock tower (there never was any before) has been dropped at last.They will be extremely exclusive apartments and will command higher prices now security and privacy wont be an issue, and no affordable housing to be built in either, just a donation to the housing department to be negotiated. So, that will up the exclusivity of the site also, no doubt. It sounds like the developers have the whip hand when it comes to the negotiations so that shouldn't be too much of a cost. With a bit of luck it might be all agreed for the trading update which is due some time soon I believe. [link] iconic clock tower in the south of York will be made into apartments, if a deal can be struck over affordable housing.Developers PJ Livesey and Henry Boot got the unanimous go ahead for their plan for the historic building at a council committee meeting on Thursday, and won praise from a council planning committee for coming up with the proposals.Cllr John Galvin, chairman of the area planning committee, said: “It’s patently obvious that unless it is financially viable it will fall down, and that would be a tragedy. I am delighted with what is being proposed, it’s an admirable solution.”The plans had drawn criticism from some people nearby, who had wanted earlier schemes for a public use for the building to go ahead.However planning consultant Kate Bailey told the planning committee that other plans had proved unviable, and if the specialist developers walked away from the project there is no “plan B” to save the building.“We have been in discussions for a year, and all this time the vacant buildings have continued to deteriorate. The building has many constraints including the location and the poor structural condition", she added.The committee also heard that while the education department had dropped their request for money to improve dining facilities at Scarcroft School, the housing department had asked for a financial contribution for affordable housing to be built elsewhere in the city.Ms Bailey said the plans had been designed and costed on the basis as a vacant building it would be exempt from those payments, and added that the financial viability of the current scheme is fragile. "
Eadwig
20 Nov 2016
O/T Next Garden City Ebbsfleet? This is the place I was thinking of in my last post. At first glance, including this article, it would appear ideal, but the housing companies don't think so, not without subsidies. Also, any rise in sea levels would put this area in danger one would imagine, it is very close to the Thames estuary - not the best future planning, really, for the Milton Keynes of the future. There are other competing areas in Essex which can likely claim several of the communications advantages, although probably not a high speed international rail link!I've put if Off Topic because I'm not aware of BHY having any concern in this project and it is well out of its usual northern/northwestern bailiwick. From Telegraph Mar 2014"Ebbsfleet, where Britain’s first new garden city in 100 years will be built, has already undergone some redevelopment in recent years, but not as much as originally hoped.Plans to build thousands of homes were first submitted over a decade ago, but just 150 have been completed so far.A significant advance was made in 2007 when Ebbsfleet International railway station was opened, opening up high speed services to Kings Cross St Pancras and Stratford, as well as Eurostar services to Europe. When it first became operation it was billed as “the ultimate park and ride station”.George Osborne’s claim that the area has “fantastic infrastructure” is further backed up by the site being close to the M25, M20, M2 and A2, and 24 miles from London.Ebbsfleet is situated to the east of Dartford and to the west of Gravesend on the south of the Thames Estuary, and is just a few miles from Bluewater shopping centre, the fourth largest in Britain.In 2007, in an attempt to promote a sense of identity for the area, the local football team Gravesend and Northfleet FC changed their name to Ebbsfleet United FC.An original masterplan for the long-awaited development at Eastern Quarry area of Ebbsfleet Valley included more than 6,000 homes and 231,000 sq metres of floorspace for businesses - shops, schools, libraries, health centres, places of worship, sports and leisure centres. [Anyone who doesn't understand why large housing projects are classed as infrastructure spend should read that last paragraph and add a road plan with lighting and sewers, gas and electric, broadband, TV cabling. New link roads to the motorway network, specialised services to hub airports, a bus and/or train station and hospital with support services for mental health, physio-therapy etc etc will all be essential for a larger population. THAT is why it takes government involvement to plan it successfully- Eadwig]However, there has been very little progress in recent years.Much of the land that will be built on for the new garden city was formerly used by industrial companies and manufacturers.Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, wrote on Twitter: "Government plans for a garden city in Ebbsfleet in Kent with 15,000 homes is great news for London, for jobs & growth and for the UK economy."Gareth Johnson, Conservative MP for Dartford, told the BBC he "very much welcomed" the chancellor's announcement. "The Ebbsfleet Valley has been a source of great frustration for many years," he said. "Despite the efforts of the council and central government, we've never got the development we want to see in the area."A huge white horse designed by Mark Wallinger, the artist, is to to be built near the site of the proposed garden city. The 160ft (50m) sculpture - 33 times the size of a real horse - has become known as The Angel of the South, and is expected to dominate the north Kent landscape in its position overlooking the A2.It was the winning design in a competition to find a symbol for the regeneration of the area around Ebbsfleet International."
Eadwig
20 Nov 2016
Re: Agree this is a BUY Rhigos,All the wider construction and materials sector seemed to be up yesterday, I'm unsure why, perhaps a leak about the upcoming Autumn statement and/or the housing white paper? Maybe something else that has been reported in the weekend papers? I'm out of the UK since Friday until the New Year, so it is hard to pick up snippets of news that may be very important for a whole sector, but not general headline grabbers. Maybe you have read something this weekend?I think there might be the pushing forward of the creation of another garden city/new town which has been mooted for ages but is mostly on the site of an old quarry, so although many housing companies have acreage, only a few houses have been built on relatively green field adjoining sites so far. Its somewhere around the Essex outskirts of London.BDEV has a lot of the acreage if I remember correctly, they reported on it a couple of years ago saying they are basically awaiting incentives to go ahead because it is effectively very expensive brownfield land - presumably large parts of it need filling in - and that no company could build housing there and turn a profit so the government must stump for basic preparation and probably public infrastructure also.Fact is a recent report showed this type of large-scale addressing of the housing shortage to be as important as ever, with the lowest number of new build affordable housing built since 1998 or something, supposedly an unintended consequence of higher stamp duty on high end prices. Not sure how that is supposed to work, but it is what I read.I've always expected Hammond to address affordable housing which is why I have extensive holdings across PSN (they have a factory unit for pre-fabrication), Ibstock (bricks and cement), INL (amongst other things, a history of building houses for councils in the southeast and actually managing the rental on their behalf as well, although small scale). Henry Boot (of course!) for the northern powerhouse office building requirement aspect, Some others too - can't think straight with family making noise this morning.What was disappointing about BDEV? Them getting a bit over-stretched in London? - maybe. I think they're doing a fine job of converting from growth to a big divi payer as I said on that board. That is normally a very, very painful time for shareholders, especially if they bought near the top. You said it yourself above, house builders doing a fine job with profitability ... not much growth left though (PSN has some to go I believe - see that board).From my point of view I built a position in BDEV in 2010/11 averaging @101p and my biggest disappointment was selling out too early. I've traded them a few times since, and very nearly tho other day. Wish I had. Could have made 25pps in dividends and sold out for about 25-50pps profit depending how close I got to the lows and highs.I still rate PSN the best of breed in the sector, but BDEV have come a close second. I think they should have done something about getting their debt at a cheaper rate, but that may be too late now. Agree about the spread on BHY, ridiculous. They really need to get more liquidity into the market place, maybe by a 1 for 4 swap or something. They wont though, it would cost a few quid and not help the company directly.Good luck, getting hassled by Ms. Eadwig. God knows what about. Speak soon.
Rhigos
18 Nov 2016
Re: Agree this is a BUY Eadwig,I too am overweight in construction / house-builders as I believe shortage of houses and low interest will ensure their profitability for some time to come. They have been paying very good dividends and or capital returns. BDEV performance has disappointed me though.Now after BHY's 4.42% rise in SP from yesterday's close (according to my data source, not ii) I am showing a paper profit of 2.5% based on mid-price and gross purchase price. I see no point in using closing sell price as spread nearly always opens up near close giving an artificially low price. Not really sure why SP gone up so much today though house-builders up as well. Now happy with purchase and looking forward to further rise in SP over following few months.
Eadwig
11 Oct 2016
Re: Agree this is a BUY Hiya Rhigos,As I said, I'm not keen on the spread on on BHY at all, so after the price action in the markets yesterday I revised down my limit order a little to ensure that with stamp duty my first tranche wouldn't be over 200p.It executed this afternoon judging by the e-mail I received, but haven't logged into my account to see the price. I assume that I've got the @200p inc duty etc or a shade under.I've gone a bit heavy on construction and housing stocks, rather banking on the government seeding economic activity (they have to do something positive, surely?). The way the markets are going - and more to the point the self-destructive nature of this government right now - its turning into quite a gamble on this last quarter of the year.I've averaged down in INL and TEF (both affordable housing) and bought a tranche in Ibstock after its recent placing, assuming its bricks and concrete will be in much demand and as I bought under the recent placing price of @170p, it should be a reasonable play ... Isn't looking that way right now, although it came back a bit today, its still a little under my buying price.Also bought a tranche of BKG @2400p as a range trade, adding to my long term holding there - so other end of the market, but still construction and very London specific. that might be the biggest gamble of all of them.I can't remember what the sell price is, probably covering just 5%. BKG came back well today, but who knows where high-end London property might end up if hard Brexit sees a lot of high paying finance jobs leaving London.The other side of that is that as a world asset class, London property for the long term foreign investor is very cheap right now - even with the new higher stamp duties. I'm hoping there is some offset there potentially, along with the 8%+ yield on BKG at that price. Ex-div in December, hopefully the trade will have executed before then or its probably in trouble.Happily I bought some Tesla - two tranches, one @$225 (much too high it turned out) and a second @$197 or there abouts - crucially *before* the latest steep drop in GBP, so that's sort of looking ok at the moment despite an average of about $215 and just about everything down in the Us today, I'm still about break-even on those when Fx taken into account.Not to worried anyway - a much longer term play that one with the tie up with Solar City pending. I think Musk is another Jobs/Zuckerberg, and I'm prepared to ride it out.Everything else I have in US dollars I'm hanging onto at the moment. Who knows where the exchange rate might end up?I'm looking at Merlin entertainment as a play on foreign tourism coming to the UK, also Brits staying at home due to bad tourist rates. Plus they have some foreign currency earnings too. Need to look closer - terribly high P/E and not much of a dividend, plus I think there may still be law suits pending and depressed attendance after the accident at Alton Towers.
