Eadwig
08 Mar 2017
Re: Reason for fall today? No, and it looks like its continuing to fall today on budget day which may well provide a boost for the sector. Others have been rising approaching the budget.It could be some profit taking, I was tempted myself to go before the budget, but was still deciding on that when it started to drop away. But, I get the feeling someone knows something we don't. Disappointing. All the signs were BHY were set to beat expectations in a couple of weeks time.
Rhigos
07 Mar 2017
Reason for fall today? Preliminary results not due until 24 March. Not ex-div and no recent broker views. Very low volume today.Anyone ant idea why SP fell 2.98% today? It was biggest percentage fall of any of my forty odd shares today. Must admit yesterday it was my fastest rising share having gone up 16.68% since buying 5.4 months ago so possibly just got ahead of itself and perhaps SP fell as almost nobody wanted to buy when SP was highest since Nov 2015 also may have been a small amount of profit taking.
Eadwig
10 Feb 2017
Re: Price rise " Always good to hear an alternative to Wetherby emerging.. "Well, quite. If you have cause to walk down Walmgate note the student accommodations that have gone up in recent years completely transforming the last industrial area within the city walls.
TX2
10 Feb 2017
Re: Price rise Boot seem to be valued as a property company at around book NAV presently circa 170p then depending on market sentiment "something" seems to be added for the constuction side plus prospects.
dazedandconfused
10 Feb 2017
Re: Price rise Up in York in a fortnight's time for a weekend so will look around. Always good to hear an alternative to Wetherby emerging..
Eadwig
10 Feb 2017
Re: Price rise dazedandconfused, "Henry Boot is a mixture of direct Property Developer and Construction Company"... and its sub category is listed on LSE as 'Heavy Industry'. So god knows what sector it is being affected by, if any.Lots of construction companies are generally up at the moment in the run up to a) full year results and b) UK budget (with expected infrastructure/housing boost) so I don't think we are necessarily in the dark about anything here. Not to mention the overall trajectory of the markets, of course.BHY have already guided slightly better than expected results. Having been around the chocolate factory some more I think forward sales will be even further ahead of expectations than previously by the end of year (2016). They'll probably be wondering why they ever got involved in housing outside of York, actually, after this experience.They do have industrial units and large commercial sites too of course, and seem to specialise in preparation of building lots for housing. Could be a lot of demand for that in the next 3 years.
musker ron
10 Feb 2017
Re: 228+ PearlAs always, there are other possibilities to the ones you suggest.The Construction sector as a whole, has seen share prices rise and Henry Boot is going up with it.. We are in a period of rising momentum and the next resistance is around the 240p mark although no doubt there will be some retracement on its way there.
pearlsasinger
10 Feb 2017
228+ Today's sp rise suggests 2 possibilities1. Market makers are short of stock as weekend approaches- or2. Some people know much more than we do
dazedandconfused
06 Feb 2017
Re: Price rise Henry Boot is a mixture of direct Property Developer and Construction Company (or it used to be, a decade back when i was working 'oop North), and so might have been affected by downturns in either/both categories?
Eadwig
06 Feb 2017
Re: Price rise My assumptions were flawed in my last post. I thought that because the BHY price peaked at the same time as the housing sector, that it was generally following that sector's trend.In fact, if you look at the BHY chart for the last 3 years, and compare to the Construction & Materials sector, it seems that BHY and the sector had a bad 2014 generallyin stock price terms. 2014 was actually an excellent year for BHY, but not so good in 2015 resulting in BHY failing to follow the sector's recovery seemingly. Lets hope this current recovery in price takes on the sector attributes, in which case the stock price will climb well past immediate pre-Brexit vote levels, and on past the 2015 high too.[link] old saying goes that 50% of a stock's price movement is based on the sector. If that is the case with BHY then they were dragged down when they were actually fast improving their fundamentals, and haven't benefited (yet) from the sector's sharply upward trend over the last 12 months after reporting some areas of disappointment in year ending 31 Dec 2015.In fact, the sector was barely affected by the Brexit vote, whereas BHY was heavily impacted. Due to more reliance on housing for revenue, perhaps? I'm not sure, I haven't drilled down that far thwt far back. A big fall in adjusted EPS and unable to push on from, or even maintain, operating margin highs reached in year ending 2014 has obviously had a major dampening affect on the BHY price, it seems. [link] should add leverage is down and was never excessive, so I was possibly barking up the wrong tree there - although its still possible they took on debt at too expensive a level. Not the only ones in the housing/construction sectors to do so if they did. Again, I haven't the time to research down to those levels.It would be good if we could find a general commentary on BHY's strategy and execution, especially in regard to impacting fundamentals over the last 4 or 5 years. It would require a detailed analysts report though, or a series of historic ones, and they aint so easy to come by.Still, the most important thing is the outlook is definitely looking positive from all angles as we approach the 2016 earnings statement. If at all justified, I hope they low their own trumpet bit when it comes. Underlining consistent dividend growth, well covered, for example, wouldn't do any harm for general sentiment and continued stock price momentum.
musker ron
05 Feb 2017
Re: Price rise EadwigHaving done a bit of research, I can find nothing specific to the Company that caused the sharp drop in price in 2014, rather there were macroeconomic factors similar to those prevailing at the moment i.e. promises of increased infrastructure spending resulting in share prices rising which later failed to materialist leading to those falls. It doesn't seem to relate to BHY fundamentals at all. in my view, this Government has no choice but to increase spending on infrastructure, including housing if only to help cushion any fallout from Brexit.My initial post was to highlight a breakout from the previous 6 month high which bodes well for that rising momentum to continue as we have been trading sideways for several months now.
Eadwig
04 Feb 2017
Re: Price rise musker ron et alI think the real breakthrough might be to see the share price go above pre-Brexit vote levels. I'm not sure I could name a property developer that has managed that yet, off the top of my head, let alone what is now looking like the peek of this cycle in late summer 2015. Difficult to follow housing/property cycles after such unique shocks to the economy as the financial crisis/credit crunch and Brexit. Was the Brexit vote in June the true low of this cycle, or just a blip we should ignore when looking over the longer term? We are within a few weeks of the budget which is said to contain a boost for housing developers, specifically small and medium sized ones. Plus other infrastructure measures which are all geared towards helping the economy going into the Brexit process as well as addressing the housing demand issue which has been outstanding for twenty years or more now.This government wanted to add a million houses between 2015-2020. They're already a long way behind the curve 20+ months in.Do any longer term holders know what was the cause of the breakdown in the BHY stock price in 2014? Most property company stock prices kept accelerating right through that period up to mid-late 2015. I don't remember noticing it before. Bit of a deficiency in my research prior to buying into BHY, I have to admit.Apart from a big increase in debt, there doesn't appear to be any obvious reason for it I can immediately spot, and much of that debt was taken on to secure sites which are now paying big dividends. There was mention of an expectation of interest rate rises in the pipeline in the FY results for 2013 (the drop looks like it started around those results being announced), I wonder if they over-paid for the financing due to that expectation, perhaps?
musker ron
03 Feb 2017
Price rise Pleased to see the price break through and close above the previous 6 month high. This could be the breakout we've been waiting for but volumes are low.
musker ron
19 Jan 2017
Re: Trading Update Yes I understand that TX2. I see the FCF as a concern but not a serious problem at the moment and your scenario is one of the things I was thinking about. A risk though is that if land/property prices fall then problems could arise if they are forced to sell.The dividend therefore appears to be paid out of borrowings. Nothing to get too worried about but it does need to be watched.
TX2
19 Jan 2017
Re: Trading Update "Something has to give eventually";Not exactly Boot is a property development company in the main a wholesaler of land which it sells on after improving its prospects by obtaining planning permission,putting projects together.Gearing is still fairly low;to raise cash all it needs to do is sell more land than it buys.
