Eadwig
04 Apr 2017
Re: Results TX2, " property prices both commercial and houses are now fairly stable so profits on sale of land may be on a more normal margin in the future. "House price inflation and actual inflation are fast coming together - house prices growth rate is falling (though still growing) and RPI is now very close to the same figure and going up fast.CPI, if you prefer that measurement, is perhaps 1.7% below the current house price growth rate, but also rising fast.dazedandconfused,Just as a note, REITs tend to 'guarantee' dividend rises based on RPI as a minimum. Therefore property investment REITs which still have room for capital growth and yields of 6% linked to RPI, may be worth looking at as part of your portfolio mix, if you haven't done so already.I personally have REITs based on student accommodation, build-to-rent and specialists in building distribution centres, as well as standard listed companies in builders similar to BHY (a mix of commercial, rental and residential construction), a FTSE 100 housebuilder (PSN) and specialists in low cost housing in London TEF, and INL who build and rent on behalf of councils, and are specialists in converting brownfield sites to gain planning permission and sell much of that land bank to other developers.I include this to show my own distribution across the construction sub-sectors. Note I don't have any large construction, such as Balfour Beatty and I sold my one materials specialist, IBSTOCK and housebuilder TW (both just too early, it turns out). PSN incorporates its own brick factory and modular (prefab) divisions. I've also slightly reduced my positions in TEF and INL over the last few months.I'm not so very confident about the sector after the failure of the government to introduce extra stimulus at any kind of meaningful level, the likely post Brexit fall off in population growth and possibly student numbers too and the rising cost of labour and materials.Its still by far the largest single sector in terms of my portfolio of investments, just to put all that into context. Its not like I'm panicking about the sector's future, more that I'm worried it may just end up being a normal, profitable, high dividend paying sector rather than one with stupendous growth which has never really been reflected in prices at any point over the last decade.
TX2
24 Mar 2017
Re: Results We seem to be busy;however rising prices tend to flatter profits & I get the impression that property prices both commercial and houses are now fairly stable so profits on sale of land may be on a more normal margin in the future.
dazedandconfused
24 Mar 2017
Re: Results A very positive Report against most, if not all, sectors..and nationwide too. I particularly liked this statement, given my SIPP is primarily invested in UK housebuilders: "In the early months of 2017, house builders continued to show strong interest in high quality sites and good market areas."
pearlsasinger
24 Mar 2017
Results Vey good and positive outlook.But I do not expect SP to move significantlyupwards- following yesterday afternoon's price 'surge' to close on 240p.Hopefully I am wrong!(holder)
Eadwig
22 Mar 2017
Re: Sell order placed Rhigos, "Worried may have missed boat as SP up 34% since January but fc PE of 11.7 not too high."Me too in terms of going back in. the charts look like they're still roaring up higher ... but, lots of uncertainty ahead for construction (and Scotland) on top of Brexit AND not really been floated long enough to have a handle on the share price.The one thing I think might be in their favour still is that student accommodation build is a little behind in Scotland so may have longer to run - plus if Scotland do leave the UK and remain in the EU, they'll get an even bigger boost in foreign students flocking in.Tricksy the way things are.
Rhigos
21 Mar 2017
Re: Sell order placed Eadwig,Well done for squeezing an extra 2p above what I got (1.875p to be precise) on sale of BHY. Quite often when I sell a share SP rises sharply. Nobody likes big spreads but they come with territory of smaller cap companies and poor liquidity. I seldom trade at market price preferring to use limit orders and agree could not do without limit orders. Sometimes with limit orders you can get a bargain when market opens. WJG look good from bit of research I've done. Impressive fc yield of 4%. Growth figures very good. fc EPS growth 56.6%. Slight worry about about me having too much invested in student property as already got ESP and DIGS, though WJG covers a wider aspect. Worried may have missed boat as SP up 34% since January but fc PE of 11.7 not too high. Worth considering, thank you for pointing them out.
Eadwig
21 Mar 2017
Re: Sell order placed Rhigos, I'm also out @232p (16.44% in just under 6 months) on a limit order. the way, I agree with dazedandconfused. Its an extremely dodgy sector for comparisons, so take care with that. The whole sector thing needs a bit of a shake-up around construction, in my opinion (see my previous posts if you can be bothered). Many of the companies are defined in different sub-sectors on different sites, etc. God knows which are included in ETFs that are trading UK/European construction - if such things exist. They probably do, and that's why sector definition can be so important.Of course, moving your money to somewhere that gives a better return is always a good move, whatever the sector - diversification concerns aside. I don't know anything about KLR or KIE so can't comment specifically.I've had a really good return on WJG - one of my student accommodation plays, but a builder, not a renter. I cashed in after a disappointing budget. [Same reason I'm exiting BHY] I think I was too rash with WJG, the stock has hardly blinked, and isn't wholly dependent on student accommodation by any means. I might go back in, its back on my shopping list and is really roaring if you look at a chart and the moving averages. I made 25% in under 6 months, and all of that was really after the results in January. I didn't post the trades live though, although I have referred to it on occasion, so you'll have to trust me on it.It isn't as bad as BHY, but still a nasty spread. Worth getting repeated quotes, I've found, the spread isn't usually quite as bad as it is portrayed in 'My Portfolio'. WJG has no stamp duty, recently floated on AIM, its a Scottish based family construction company with over 100 years of operations behind it. Anyway, DYOR. I know you will.If the results disappoint at all with BHY, it might be very tricky to get the return I'm after for at least another 6 months. So, coupled with the disappointing budget and possible Brexit risks hitting construction generally (maybe), I've decided to sell. Plus, when you buy with a catalyst in mind (the budget and northern powerhouse) and it has happened (or not, in this case) you should exit a trade. I was never in BHY as a long term investment.I may end up disappointed selling BHY when the results come out, I've always felt York would prove a catalyst too, but its small compared to Aberdeen so may not move the needle.I've been particularly frustrated with the spread on BHY stock. It isn't commensurate with my usual approach of trading around a position to take profits and put against the book cost for a lower holding price and higher yield. I'm aiming for a very ambitious 15% per year on just about everything apart from a few steady yielders from the start of the next tax year, and I don't think BHY quite cuts it as a stock, if you understand me. Just not enough volatility and action for my style when after that kind of return. I'm going to have another long look at WJG though.Good luck everyone still holding. If you've read my posts you'll know I'm very local to BHY's HQ and know people who have worked there. I genuinely hope it does fantastically well. I'll be back if they do something about the stock liquidity, and will keep an eye on things anyway.PS. I have same problem with limit orders on the US markets with ii. Its a real pain. ii allows you to set a date up to 90 days ahead on London markets. God knows why they can't do that with all markets, even if its just implemented within their own software. They used to do it on US markets, but it changed when the back-end of ii changed - years ago now.I dunno how you cope without limit orders - I rely on them heavily when I can't get online when my daughter is off sick from kindergarten, which is more often than not at the moment. I also continually pick up stocks at low intraday prices. When I post trades sometimes people don't believe me because a graph showing closing prices sugge
dazedandconfused
21 Mar 2017
Re: Sell order placed I wouldn't classify KLR in the same 'sector' as BHY when analysing returns, just because they are both 'construction'; KLR are an out-and-out specialist contractor and probably a world leader in their field internationally and in UK (and their share price is a bit of a yo-yo!). BHY are a mix of Developer and regional builder/contractor, and are therefore a play on a specific geographical region (and the housing market). For clarity, I hold both in my SIPP (and used to hold Kier until a year ago).
Rhigos
20 Mar 2017
Re: Sell order placed Eadwig,Thanks for suggesting a target price of 230p. At 4pm today limit order finally met, profit after expenses of 14.03%. I have been looking at other companies in same sector that are outperforming BHY and as a results thinking of re-investing sale proceeds in KLR or KIE. BHY has performed well for 6 months up until a month or so ago. Other companies in same sector have performed better over a longer time period and I believe will do so in future.
Rhigos
13 Mar 2017
Sell order placed I bought at exactly 200p on 22 Sep 2016 and have just placed limit order to sell all at 230p or more. If I do not sell today I will try again. Annoyingly my online broker service does not support enduring limit orders so limit orders expire at market close.
Rhigos
13 Mar 2017
Re: And down again 3% Eadwig,"However, if we get a price rise where I can sell for over 230p (damn that spread) I will probably take it before the results. That would represent 15% profit in about 6 months,"I tend to agree with you about selling. Today's rise has SP around your target level. A limit order to sell at 230p may be met today. I think I may place such an order myself, after dealing costs that would give me a profit 14.0% in under 6 months. Bought ex-div so that would be total return.I forget now why I bought BHY (really must add a note to all buys to remind me of logic behind purchases). Just been studying SP 6m 12m and 24m. Over last 12 months SP up only 5% whereas FTSE 350 Construction and Materials Sector up 44%. Must look at other companies in that sector.
Eadwig
09 Mar 2017
Re: And down again 3% I had many plays that would have benefited from a budget heavy on infrastructure spending. Which we had kind of been promised. Other than schools, we saw very little of that. Several of my plays are down 2-3% today and fell yesterday PM also.[I was research Balfour Beatty a couple of years ago as a recovery play, and during that time they announced some changes in policy to help the company recovery. One of those was to no longer bid to build schools ... because the 3% profit margin was too tight! I couldn't agree more! I wonder if its improved any for these new schools. I never bought into them in the end - a good decision given the returns I'd have had, they would have been very meagre.]If you are trading for a catalyst to boost the share price, and the catalyst fails to come about, you should really sell ASAP (so the pros say).. I've held on because the results aren't far away and I'm still expecting them to be good (I.e. beat expectations). It might be a decision I regret, especially as I know I'm now in the realms of making an amateur mistake.However, if we get a price rise where I can sell for over 230p (damn that spread) I will probably take it before the results. That would represent 15% profit in about 6 months, which is what I am ideally aiming for as an average on every deal over a year. If I get it I can't really complain, therefore.Once I exit, I don't think I'll be back in BHY. Spread too big, and not enough volatility (due to lack of share liquidity, it seems) for opportunities, even though it should benefit from HS2 and HS3 infrastructure spend. If it all happens and they win contracts. All a bit too long term for me though, with not enough dividend to justify a long term involvement.Shame, from the sentimental point of view. I've known people who worked at their HQ in Sheffield and lived a couple of minutes walk from it for many years and am still basednot far away. No room for sentiment in the investing game though.
musker ron
09 Mar 2017
Re: And down again 3% Looking at the 3 month volatility on the chart (Std Deviation) it rose steadily in early February as it broke out of the sideways trend and is now back to normal? levels.
Rhigos
09 Mar 2017
And down again 3% SP for BHY turning into an oscillation with 1 day period! If pattern persists buy today and be up 3% by Friday close. Sadly often as soon as a pattern like this becomes obvious it ends.Looking at SP & volume chart I note that between 13 Jan 2017 and 20 Feb 2017 there was very low trade volume but SP went up a lot. On 21 Feb a bit higher volume and SP fell 3.7%. Looked like profit taking to me.
Rhigos
08 Mar 2017
Re: Reason for fall today? Eadwig,Now, 15:40, SP up around 2.2%. Bearing in mind very low volume of trade yesterday the fall probably not worth worrying about. When volume low a few sizeable sells can cause SP to fall for no good reason.Fundamentals look very positive. From SharePad where fc=forecast:fc PE 10.2fc Pre-Tax profit growth 22.9%fc Normalised EPS growth 28.8%fc Yield 3.1% covered x3.2fc div growth 14.8%, there have been 6 years of growthROE 10.9%ROCE 10.4%You too could have all this at your finger tips for 3 months for a mere £25!Still looks to me like a buy which is broker consensus as well.
