LK Hyman
08 Feb 2016
Re: The Mix & Match dilemma redux Damp,"I assume that's what 'FWLIMBW' means ?"For what little it may be worth .... but you knew that.I'm flattered that you've done summat because I told you to!Despite today's fall in the Shell price the "max shares" option remains better than the default because Shell B is 1521.5p at the close, which is better than the 1469.0p which is the maximum price at which the "max shares" brigade will get their shares with some of their cash (if they get them LOL). And, as 8PK points out, there's no stamp duty or commission involved, which there would be if one opts for all cash and chust buys Shell in the market.But, shipm8es, do wait until the very last minute before making your election. You will get no sympathy from me if you elect to take "max shares" too early and the Shell share price goes down, like an anchor, before the last moment at which your broker allows you to make the election. LKH on the flybridge the people's friend
Damp Seaweed
08 Feb 2016
Re: The Mix & Match dilemma redux Well I've gone for the all RDSB option because LKH told me too !And implicit in his post was a cast iron guarantee......well I assume that's what 'FWLIMBW' means ?Or it could just be something he says to a fair maiden when he leaves port ?
LK Hyman
08 Feb 2016
Re: The Mix & Match dilemma redux 8pk,"to avoid the dealing cost and duty involved in investing the Wonga in Shell or 'owt else for that matter."Good point, m8. Have a bluey.LKH on the flybridge
8PK
08 Feb 2016
Re: The Mix & Match dilemma redux Hi folks,I've decided to go all B shares simply to avoid the dealing cost and duty involved in investing the Wonga in Shell or 'owt else for that matter.Chillaxed about the whole thing now.Regards,
dave31
08 Feb 2016
Re: The Mix & Match dilemma redux LKH,Thanks for your replies. I have to decide on my election today, so looking for my "lucky penny"..Dave
Damp Seaweed
08 Feb 2016
Re: The Mix & Match dilemma redux A small added complication added by iweb (HSDL) is that if you opt for anything other than the default option then after decision day (today) they will lock your shares away in the cupboard until after the completion date.I think that is to stop investors buying/selling and mucking up their calculations.
LK Hyman
08 Feb 2016
Re: The Mix & Match dilemma redux Dave,"Today's small rise in the Shell share price"Now that rise has reversed LOL!The thing to do is wait until the very last moment permitted by your own broker to make your Mix & Match election because, if the Shell share price, for whatever reason, falls well below the 1463.5p-1469.0p range, one will then want to opt for "max cash" rather than "max shares".Infuriatingly, the Barclays Stockbrokers scoundrels, who hold part, but not all, of the Hyman household BG shares, required me to make my election by 4 Feb, thereby putting me at a disadvantage compared to shareholders with other brokers who allow a later election.Hey ho, never mind,eh?LKH on the flybridge tracking steadily east
sharenov
08 Feb 2016
Re: BG Takeover Many thanks,it certainly gives me something to think about
LK Hyman
08 Feb 2016
Re: The Mix & Match dilemma redux Dave,"Can you clarify why the mix and match reference will be somewhere between 1463.5p and 1469.0p, rather than the actual share price on the day of the takeover?"The simple answer is "because the Shell scheme document of 22 December says so".But what you need to do to fully understand "why" is to read, very carefully, (I had to read it several times before the scales fell off my eyes), the bottom of page 44 and the top of page 45 of the scheme document, which is available on the Shell website. The illustrative example at the top of page 45 makes it crystal clear that the reference price will be somewhere between 1463.5p and 1469.0p, and that the precise point at which the reference price will fall between those two outlying numbers will depend upon how may BG shareholders opt for Shell A shares and how many opt for (or accept the default for) Shell B shares.The declaration of the reference price, which will be made on 15 Feb, will NOT (in my opinion) depend upon the price at which Shell shares start trading on 15 February, but it WILL be somewhere between 1463.5p and 1469.0p.I think many, many people have been confused by Shell's mention of the fact that the example given on page 45 is "illustrative", and they have wrongly assumed that that means that the 1463.5p and 1469.0p numbers are merely examples, but that the actual numbers will depend upon the price prevailing on 15 Feb. The illustrative nature of the example refers not to the input prices but to the percentages of A and B shares which are sought by BG shareholders. Clearly the people manning the BG shareholder help line do not understand the issue. This is not surprising as they cannot be experts in every aspect of the deal, but this particular point could have been better expressed in the scheme document.Shell's registrar, Equiniti, needs to know, on 15 Feb, how many Shell A or B shares each BG shareholder will be entitled to, because those shares can be traded on that day. Equiniti cannot possibly know the answer to that if the number of shares held by each shareholder depends on that day's price. So Shell fixes the input prices at the levels prevailing immediately before the scheme document was published on 22 Dec, and a horde of worker bees checks the extent to which the demand for "max cash" or "max shares" can be satisfied, by checking how many people want the default, and how many want the other alternatives under Mix & Match between now and 6.00 pm on 12 Feb.Today's small rise in the Shell share price strengthens my view that, on the face of it, the "max shares" option is better than the default option, but most people are likely to see that, so there is likely to be an overwhelming election for "max shares" which, ironically, (because of the need for offsetting "max cash" elections which will be few in number) will mean that the most probable outcome will be summat pretty close to the default!Nonetheless, it's worth choosing "max shares" (B shares for Blighty shareholders because of the Dutch divi withholding tax on the As) because, you never know, you might get quite a lot more shares than if you just take the default by, erm, default. There will be some people who opt for "max cash" because they believe that, on 15 Feb, the Shell share price will slump ... and they may be right, who knows?!LKH on the flybridge opting for max shares
dave31
07 Feb 2016
Re: The Mix & Match dilemma redux Interesting post.. Can you clarify why the mix and match reference will be somewhere between 1463.5p and 1469.0p, rather than the actual share price on the day of the takeover?Dave
LK Hyman
07 Feb 2016
The Mix & Match dilemma redux Further to our earlier discussions about whether to take the default (£3.83 cash plus 0.4454 Shell shares per BG share) or go for max cash or max Shell shares, I believe that I have now (finally) cracked the conundrum, having run the numbers through the Antikythera mechanism, which I acquired in, erm, Antikythera, while on the long haul down from Antikythera to our current location.The Mix & Match reference price WILL be somewhere between 1463.5p and 1469.0p. That price will be the same whether BG shareholders opt for Shell A shares or Shell B shares, and it will depend on the extent to which BG shareholders want Shell A or Shell B shares. If shareholders all want Shell A shares the reference price will be 1463.5p. If they all want Shell B shares the reference price will be 1469.0p. Obviously, some will want Shell A and some will want Shell B, in which case the reference price will be somewhere between them two outlying prices, depending upon the percentage of each share class that the punters want.The most recent Shell A share price is 1535p, and Shell B 1536.5p so, depending upon what happens to the Shell share prices between now and the last moment when BG shareholders can declare their preference for default, max cash or max shares, it looks as if the max shares alternative is defo the one to go for, rather than the default or the max cash alternative. That is because one will get the shares for a maximum of 1469.0p which are currently priced at a minimum of 1535p. That has to be "a good thing" (ceteris paribus).As stated in previous posts by various people, loads of people will be able to anticipate the foregoing and therefore it is probable that so many people will opt for max shares that there will be insufficient people opting for max cash to provide the offsetting elections needed to give the "max shares" shareholders all the shares that they want.Nevertheless, there will be some people who want max cash, so it will be worth opting for max shares since, even if there is a big scale back, one should still get a few more shares than if one just accepts the default option.None of the foregoing will be worth a cup of warm spit of course, if, between the time one chooses max shares and 15 February, the oil price collapses further.LKH on the flybridge, at anchor, eastern harbour, Alexandri
LK Hyman
07 Feb 2016
Re: BG Takeover Sharenov,"I have 5000 shares in BG and I go for the default arrangement what will happen to the RDSB price on takeover of BG. Will it increase or decrease?"It's impossible for anyone to know the answer to that sensible question more certainly as regards the Shell share price than any other share in the market, alas, m8.A lot will depend upon the extent to which BG shareholders choose to pump the cash element of the deal price into Shell rather than do summat else with it. My own feeling, FWLIMBW, is that Shell WILL be the destination for a goodly chunk of that wedge. How much I know not, but, probably enough, ceteris paribus, to push the Shell share price upwards a bit.Of course, ceteris never are paribus, so there may also be a downwards push on the Shell share price if a lot of BG shareholders decide, for whatever reason, to sell a good chunk of the 1,526 million odd Shell shares which are being issued on 15 February. Again, FWLIMBW, my view is that not many BG shareholders will sell on 15 February. This is because the BG discount has just about disappeared now (because the deal is certain to complete). Anyone wanting to sell Shell on 15 February might therefore just as well sell BG in the market now and be done with it."So, LK", I hear you cry "you are saying that your view is that the Shell share price will increase on 15 February, when the new shares start trading, yah?".Well, erm, no, because there is an elephant in the room ... the price of oil. If it collapses between now and then the Shell share price will, as sure as God made little green apples, fall. And, unfortunately, I don't have the first clue whether it will fall or whether it will rise ... in which latter case the Shell share price will almost certainly increase.So, you pays your money and you makes your choice. Sorry not to be more helpful.LKH on the flybridge my next post will, I hope be more helpful
sharenov
07 Feb 2016
BG Takeover Can anyone explain that if I have 5000 shares in BG and I go for the default arrangement what will happen to the RDSB price on takeover of BG. Will it increase or decrease? Thanks your help will be appreciated.
BarleyBaron
04 Feb 2016
Re: Sold Out Alpha Centauri.New one arrived this morning. The turbine blades are only a metre wide but I found them stuck in my neighbor's garden shed, a mere 200 metres away. He was not impressed. The brake failed at 60mph when it should have stopped everything . All the lady who brought out the new one could say was WOW. I'm an expert at destroying things.I'm going to miss the Old Girl (BG) when the day we cease trading arrives. I know nought changes but I've been here since the start, reinvested all my divi's for more shares, topped up numerous times and it's turned out to have been a nice wee earner.She done good.Baron.
Ripley94
04 Feb 2016
Re: Mix and Match Re,,, picstloup.Thanks for that simple reply.had to chose by yesterday.... was below 14.69 at close above 15 today ...lol.
