frog_in_a_tree
29 Nov 2018
Where have I seen this before? Sara Did you hear that the World Health Organisation estimates an increase in deaths of 110,000 across the world from measles due, in part, from anti-vacc conspiracy theorists promoted by those with only half a brain? Cheers, Frog in a tree
SaraRacano
29 Nov 2018
Where have I seen this before? It´s only when sellers become desperate that they start to lower prices. It´s just amazing that house prices in the main have held up for so long with huge consumer debt ratios. What are bank defaults on mortgages? When the UK housing market does finally come to a more price sensitive levels this will be armageddon, especially to those that have bought post 2014. When prices are static people normally wait it´s when the perception that they are falling people panic. With Woodford, the most basic of economic principles that affordabilty comes before demand. Surely the analysts that work for him must be aware of the affordabilty issues. There are lots of scenarios. How does a fall in GBP affect housebuilders? This is where I feel many people on here lose touch with reality. These hedge funds shorting the GBP, I can see why. I can see Carney´s predictions coming true but more to do with his own failed economic policies? I am back buying physical gold
Gamesinvestor1
28 Nov 2018
Where have I seen this before? Sara, whatever - in the meantime the housing market continues to stall. Stuff has been on the market around here for months and up in the North West close to a year or more. Brighton prices have fallen radically. Still, the help to cry is there to open up the gap wider. Builders share prices are not falling for no reason - the writing may well be on the wall. Woodford seems think they are a bargain, but could you ever trust his judgement again after the 20 or 30 major bloomers he’s lost out on in the last 3 years? Games - There’s always a fool and his money
SaraRacano
28 Nov 2018
Where have I seen this before? They are very soft rises. The Fed I would assume are trying to taper a Ponzi, very gradually working out what the market can take. Looking to be in control. Why did the Fed lower rates to near 0% & keep them there, To be honest, I don´t think the truth has ever been told about the events of 2007-08. Over 10 years on & the same “emergency toolsâ€. I think things are far more delicate than any one let´s on. Trump, now appears to be using this Mexican caravan as a trade war tool against Mexico, threatening to shut the boarder as long as is demanded. “Mexico has done rather well against the U.S. in previous yearsâ€. The classic thing is how the UK housing markets act if capital controls are ever placed. All those Asians that have purchased in central London, especially will panic, they are not there for the long run!
Gamesinvestor1
28 Nov 2018
Where have I seen this before? I wouldn’t rule it out Sara, they are already at 3.07% - compare that to 1 and 2 years back. If the big downturn was as dramatic as suggested in some of the press, it’s curious as to why the Fed keeps raising rates. Games
SaraRacano
28 Nov 2018
Where have I seen this before? Do you think 10 year bonds will yield 5%? You´re looking at a potentially massive default, although it depends on when these bonds come to fruition, it might not come all at once thus any new economic depression. This article might refer just to re-mortgaging. All the signs are now that a big downturn is here.
Gamesinvestor1
28 Nov 2018
Where have I seen this before? It’s much higher than 6 times salary. The ratio nationally is more like 250k/27K = 9.25 against the value of the house Let’s assume you have £10K deposit then it’s 240/27 – still 8.9X You’ll never see a bigger bubble than this when 10 year bonds start to yield closer to 5%. Games
SaraRacano
27 Nov 2018
Where have I seen this before?
malj1
23 Nov 2018
Re: hpi So 2018 starts to draw to a close. ONS hpi is lightly accelerating up & currently just under +4% yoy. Which is where I said (repeatedly) where it would come out at the start of & earlier this year. So score 1 for me (yet again) as my projection has turned out to be correct. Score nil for SR/HCU et al, none of whose housing comments on housing implosion have turned out to be correct (for a good decade). How does it feel to be wrong for a decade? Well I wouldn’t know! But I daresay there’ll be the usual post from SR/HCU predicting the end of the world, how my fig.s are all wrong & how I just don’t get it. Definitely something odd in being so relentlessly detached from reality!!! And with that farewell for a while. It’s pretty obvious what’s happening in UK housing, so I’ll keep putting my money where my mouth is, having run a portfolio cagr of +23% over the last decade. Gosh I must have got something right! Just as well I ignored the doomster fantasy economics & ‘analysis.’
SaraRacano
07 Nov 2018
Zillow down 20% Where the U.S. housing market goes the world follows. SP´s of U.S new builds closely follow the UK´s. DradS39XQAETV2P.jpg1200x927 70.2 KB Fortune [link] Fortune 500 Daily & Breaking Business News
frog_in_a_tree
05 Nov 2018
Divis this week Atvleast we agree on Right to Buy and, I think, that neither party has covered themselves in glory on housing policy fro Thatcher on. Cheers, Frog in a tree
Bowman
05 Nov 2018
Divis this week Unfortunately all your quotes stem from the Independent, a source that is highly unlikely to publish anything positive about the Conservatives, and will bend any of the facts to produce the most negative of interpretations. Your main quote is “The Conservatives refused to build more social housing because they worried it would create more Labour voters, Nick Clegg has said†from a biased article based on the input from a political nonentity who was trying to publicise his new book. All he does is to quote a throw-away off-the-cuff remark by somebody (he does not actually remember who it was) and then tries to imply that the sentiment aired was official Conservative policy. Much is made of the apparent (completely unproven) fact that Council tenants vote Labour and owner-occupiers vote Conservative. This implies that staunch Labour voters will stop voting for them once they have exercised their right to buy, which of course is absolute nonsense. The measures initiated by the Conservative are at least a start to addressing the problems and there is not an approach that will give all Councils equal opportunites, since each one has chosen a different path as a result of previous policies. Also Councils that have completely mismanaged their affairs in the past and are saddled with high debt levels will be severely resticted as to what they can do. At least a start has been made, something that was not done under Labour since they apparently did not consider it a priority. This start needs to be tweaked occassionally as the different consequences become clear. The changes also take time to work through and currently we are at the beginning. I think that the only point on which we agree is that there are areas where there is too little social and affordable housing. I believe that the whole “Right-to-buy†policy should be scrapped.
SaraRacano
05 Nov 2018
Another big problem here Note, this help to buy accounts for 40%/50% housebuilder sales. Note this is now for first time buyers only with caps placed on the amounts. A business that is hugely government subsidised, this vannot gho on forever!
frog_in_a_tree
05 Nov 2018
Divis this week More evidence of government failure in housing policy: The Independent – 4 Nov 18 Theresa May's flagship policy to solve housing crisis will deliver no new homes... Exclusive: Ministers admit half of local authorities stand to miss out on billions of pounds of funding for new low-cost homes Frog in a tree
SaraRacano
05 Nov 2018
Divis this week Oh dear! If you keep spouting this clap-trap for long enough, you might actually come to believe it. Sadly this is the case, they believe all the PR they read in the press. Don´t forget too you have some big residential housing associations (HA) out there. Don´t forget too you have to consider HA & local authority debt. Even if LA´s wanted to build housing do they have the financing??? Many LA´s are on their knees financially. Take Newham, 80% of income goes on paying off %. Many of these London Boroughs have seen huge housing development but very few new dwellings!
