Armageddon
11 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? Eadwig: Basically, a single bad quarter can wipe out a hedge fund which often only has a few dozen very rich clients. Managers are terrified of their performance standing out as bad when measured against other funds. Clients have no loyalty and will soon move their funds out entirely, especially if there are two bad quarters in a row. They are pretty dodgy , most of them. Zero risk control or accountability of worth in a lot . I have a few working in thr game. Still are. And u kid you not, apart from 2 of them… thick as two planks. A seat from daddys name. And a lot of this still manages portfolios
Armageddon
11 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? Eadwig: many don’t even know what the thought is behind the move Funds buying or selling, I reckon you could attribute the large majority with that
Eadwig
11 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? Armageddon: Been around the bloc a few times I used to have a customer/friend who worked for a Wall Street hedge fund. He taught me quite a lot - and gave me a very occasional tip in advance too, though he had to be super careful about that. He wasn’t a trader, just worked in I.T. but picked up a lot. Basically, a single bad quarter can wipe out a hedge fund which often only has a few dozen very rich clients. Managers are terrified of their performance standing out as bad when measured against other funds. Clients have no loyalty and will soon move their funds out entirely, especially if there are two bad quarters in a row.
Eadwig
11 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? Armageddon: Most funds are Muppets. Know less than us. I’m only interested in the muscle Agreed. Its the muscle that counts - especially when they get panicked and all start moving together., many don’t even know what the thought is behind the move, they just don’t want to get caught holding in a sector where all the cash is flowing out.
Armageddon
11 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? Been around the bloc a few times
Armageddon
11 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? Eadwig: What you have to remember and be cautious about at such a time is that these few thousand fund managers are in competition with each other and no one else Most funds are Muppets. Know less than us. I’m only interested in the muscle
Armageddon
11 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? Eadwig: ’d describe myself as a ‘stock-picker’. That generally means that I am choosing a stock because of some thesis about an upcoming change in the market. I do these fundamentals too. But charts are just to see money backing what I think. If not i stay out.
Eadwig
11 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? Armageddon: Charts confirm thoughts and more important, fund money. Sure use fundamentals. But…if the charts dont confirm money is supporting your view? Don’t get in I think that idea of a brand new thread, when you get time, to look at when and why we choose to buy/short is an excellent idea. Money flow is beyond the standard indicators that many people who only glance at charts look at. You can explain it to us. Something you said elsewhere about this made me think you may have misunderstood my own methods. I’d describe myself as a ‘stock-picker’. That generally means that I am choosing a stock because of some thesis about an upcoming change in the market. Or it may be as simple as particular specific future catalyst that will see the share price rise. If the catalyst I am betting on fails to move the share price in the expected way, or does lift it and seems played out, then that is the time to exit. I highlight rise because I don’t currently have any means to short particular stocks and only ever short at the moment via ETF instruments which aren’t very satisfactory and generally only cover indices or commodities. The other way that I trade is simply on stocks that I know well and which are moving in a tradeable range, buying when I feel comfortable they are oversold at the bottom of the range and normally with a target of around 5%-10% depending on the range volatility and length of time required to hold. I do also look for breakouts from a range and I’m not one of those who say ‘oh, I missed that one and can’;t make my 10 bagger now’. No, if the momentum is still there, I’ll often buy on a pullback and aim to take 30% within 3 months, which I think is super business. Unfortunately my tools to spot breakouts on the weekly chart are no longer available to me, I need to do something about that. I think P.I.s need to use all tools available to them so I’m happy to exchange views on any ways to make money in the markets. You keep mentioning funds and they skew markets for people with my approach badly, especially when a ‘herd mentality’ takes over and cash flows from one sector to another. What you have to remember and be cautious about at such a time is that these few thousand fund managers are in competition with each other and no one else. To many if they make a 10% loss for their clients for the year, they will still count it as a good year if their immediate rivals are averaging a 20% loss. They still come out as the fund more likely to attract more cash, which is how they get paid. Hedge funds are even worse for this. In 1970 90% of stocks were owned by individuals in the USA, today 90% of stocks are owned by funds. Even when they’re wrong and the herd is all moving the same way, you simply can’t bet against them (unless taking a very long view, even then timing is all important.)
Ripley94
11 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? BDEV… Moving from ( B ) sold some @ 570
Armageddon
08 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? Charts confirm thoughts. Sure use fundamentals. But…if the charts dont confirm money is supporting your view? Don’t get in
Ripley94
08 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? With out a chart you would think if a bid ( tender offer ) is turned down as big holders are saying they want more as undervalued . The bidder if not leaving will come back with more if he wants it. If the charts stated to confirm it ???
Armageddon
08 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? @Ripley94 Look at the volumes as low was being approached. Look at the accumulations. Even the most basic of charts re mobile. Of course you don’t know how big a flyer will come. But you know somebody building .
Armageddon
08 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? MLC was super obvious coming to techs. Easy saying hindsight but ask any other here you know. They will agree. During flat price the accumulation was momentous
Armageddon
08 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? I have a continues book of 40 instruments. They take 20 mins a day to manage if not looking to replace one. Thats what you should aim for. If you dont have a chart software package to make a reminder lost list of whst to look back at, make an alert datq base with Windows. It will pop up a message once a week … with the instrument shown to remind you
Ripley94
08 Jun 2019
This just a momentum play? Of course in hindsight better to have folded and came back but not sure id remember to do so , could easily miss it . To much time watching the loads i have , without the ones i have not.
