Barratt Developments Live Discussion

SaraRacano 16 Sep 2018

Comiendo el coco, frog? La Deuda You appear to be brainwashed with Britexit. frog. Perhaps some harsh realities of the business world should be conveyed. Every quarter (2017) in the UK over 300,000 ccj´s were issued against private individuals, rising by 1/3 (462.5m against private individuals). 25%+ of all corporate insolvencies are down to late/none payments to business. Nearly 1/3 payments to small/medium sized businesses are late, this is estimated to cost the British economy 2.5 billion GBP a year. 50000 small businesses are forced out of business every year as a result of late payments. 50% of small businesses are under financial pressure, 1/5 resort to personal savings to keep the business afloat whilst 1/3 have no provisions for their pensions. 9/10 small business owners had no savings at all (according to a business debt charity). UK personal debt increased 50bn GBP in 2017. Around 8m people are struggling with debt. 3,500 new private debt problems are reported every day. The list towards UK debt is a very substanial one, I have only covered a small proportion of points. Do you consider yourself in touch with the living world, frog & not getting caught up in fake news (Britexit)?

frog_in_a_tree 15 Sep 2018

More huge warning signs Sara This is pretty much a bet on on Brexit now. We know the time frame but as yet we don’t know how hard the Brexit will be of the scale of the damage, initially or over the medium term. If the Brexit is relatively soft we could have a nice spike in the share price. In the meantime we have the divis to sustain us and the general shortage of housing to support the house builders. In my on view, house prices are so over priced in comparison with construction costs that there is quite a bit of a cushion to “vaccinate” the builders if the market turns down. Cheers, Frog in a tree

SaraRacano 15 Sep 2018

More huge warning signs It´s how much more legs this market has. Last time round I remember the warning signs were so clearly evident around January 2008, Barratt´s were dropping like a stone to under 300p. By April of 2008, it was clear that some thing was wrong with the banks, with RBS´s rights issue. This time it´s not so clear cut, there is still little volatilty in these markets. Many of these builders defy gravity like the banks. Normally the volatilty is the key indicator but there is absolutely nothing. Barclays, are treading down. Gold is another indicator, again absolutely nothing. It´s gone to highly shorted. It´s like these central banks are acting like the magic circle.

IAmShareCrazy 15 Sep 2018

More huge warning signs Load up with your financial and house market short sells?

SaraRacano 15 Sep 2018

More huge warning signs Be careful with these kind of statements “vulnerable to an"other crisis because of the economic volatility caused by Brexit.” Some of the UK debt structures are absolutely shocking including the UK current account deficit. Half the UK consumer debt is held by those under 35. Wages have been more or less stagnant since 2007. Moreover, if you look at the true state of the UK economy it is built on nothing more than more & more debt coupled with asset price increases there are no fundamentals under-pinning the UK economy (productivity). With these consumer debt levels (Spain included as well) just as a 1% rise in % rates could send the UK economy into an economic depression. How does Carney, cope with inflation that could quite easily turn in hyper? Just what tools does he have left? In years gone by Venezuela, had a AAA+ credit rating. The UK certainly is no better than the likes of Turkey. Once the trigger to another crisis has been pressed the UK is going to be deeply embroiled. I think 2019, I think the markets should be OK this October.

IAmShareCrazy 15 Sep 2018

More huge warning signs Sky News Next financial crisis 'has begun and will be worse than 2008 crash,' economists... Economists who predicted the 2008 global meltdown tell Sky News the world economy is in danger once again.

SaraRacano 14 Sep 2018

More huge warning signs [link] & Mark Carney, puts the blame & Britexit for a potential collapse in the GBP/high inflation & collapse in house prices. How about failed central banking policies? Remember, consumer debt excludes mortgage debt. “Before the 2008 financial crisis, the Bank of England’s data on consumer debt in the UK was recorded at £2.08 trillion.” “In January 2018, the UK’s consumer debt has reached pre-crisis levels and, as of April 2018, stands at £2.1 trillion.”

frog_in_a_tree 05 Sep 2018

Re: meantime As expected, a good set of results this morning with an increased dividend. The sp is keeping its nose above water. The BBC reports: Barratt Developments is doing well - earlier today the housebuilder reported full-year profits up 9.2%. Its share price is up only slightly this morning. Why? Laith Khalaf, a senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, says it is down to “three things which are out of Barratt’s control - Brexit, interest rates and Help to Buy”. “Clearly there are concerns that withdrawal from the EU may not be an entirely smooth ride, and that puts a dampener on stocks like Barratt, which are plugged into the domestic economy. Meanwhile the Bank of England is raising interest rates, albeit slowly, but that’s a reversal of direction from the last ten years of monetary policy. Indeed, many first time buyers may never have seen an interest rate rise in their adult lives, and this could constrain house price growth. Finally, the end of the Help to Buy scheme is hoving into view, and unless the government extends this in some form beyond 2021, that spells the removal of a key lynchpin in the new build property market.” In my view the end of HTB may take a bit of gloss off the BDEV performance but shouldn’t be too damaging. House prices are so high that there is plenty of fat to sustain the business. Frog in a tree

frog_in_a_tree 04 Sep 2018

Re: meantime Hi Malj I think you were referring to Hardcore Uproar. After a little local difficulties with moderators following an ill-judged post, HCU got banned and has relisted as Sara Raçano. She is alive and well and posting the usual overcooked material. BDEV Finals are being reported tomorrow. I am expecting a good set of results. Cheers Frog in a tree

malj1 21 Aug 2018

Re: more meantime Meantime builder results start to come in. Today = Persimmon. Of course it’s tough with the endlessly heralded collapse. 30% operating margin, well over a decade’s of land in hand, then a over £1bn net cash float & at the current sp a dy% of almost 10%. Oh dear oh dear. Where did it all go wrong eh?

malj1 20 Aug 2018

Re: meantime … the housing market ticks along. All concomitant with y/e ONS hpi ca 4%. So hardly the collapse all expect. All oh so quiet on the bb’s. Is it the impact of the site redesign? Or is it the fact that after eons of v odd posts that (the legendary?!) HCU has been thrown off the bb!!!

malj1 07 Aug 2018

Re: hpi Both NW & HAL show house prices picking up markedly in July. So to me it looks like the ONS will showing hpi 4%~5% end 18; marginally below the UK hpi long term run rate of ca 5%~6%. Of course this is with sentiment/animal spirits on the floor. As ever we shall see - but I doubt we’ll be seeing the doomsday collapse so frequently prophesied on this bb.

wheelerstuart 06 Aug 2018

A graph for contemplation Technically not true…the banking system and credit creation has only been in this form for the last 40yrs. The supply/demand analysis is economic vanity…cheap credit and plenty of it, funnelled into a property market that is ring fenced by the “green belt”…boom!!! It’s a simple as that. Human greed drives the demand…greed is good and all that… remember the mantra because that’s what businessbanking sees as good for society. Mindless consumers believing in more tomorrow and forgetting who they REALLY are!!

Sara_Racano_HardcoreUproar 04 Aug 2018

Chilling warning signs Wolf Street – 4 Aug 18 UK “Housing Downturn” Pushes Biggest Real-Estate Agency with 10,000 Employees to... Blamed: political and economic uncertainty, Brexit, and the very measures designed to tamp down on London’s housing bubble. 

Sara_Racano_HardcoreUproar 02 Aug 2018

One trick poney! Bank of England raises key lending rate to 0.75%. OMG! More room to move rates lower when inflation surges further, the recession hits and property prices collapse. Djlz-KUX4AIQpK4.jpg1200x838 108 KB