SaraRacano
05 Nov 2018
Divis this week Firstly what you’re saying is that the company breaks the first rule of business: Your product must be affordable to the customer, you simply will not survive. If a vast swath of empty unviable commercial property exists, do we really have a problem with affordable housing? What the UK needs is to find the problems as to what is actually causing these vicious price increases. You need to put capital controls on your housing, none residents neec to be charged 10% stamp duty. As long as housing is treated as a simple investment commodity you´re always going to have the same problem. What you´re seeing is a huge property bubble caused by lack capital controls. Blocks of buildings prior to the 00´s were never ever seen as “investmentsâ€. When huge capital controls hit the world, property prices will collapse!
frog_in_a_tree
05 Nov 2018
Divis this week Bowman Perhaps this will refresh your memory? The Independent – 3 Sep 16 Tories refused to build social housing because it would 'create Labour voters',... The Liberal Democrats supported the Conservatives in government between 2010 and 2015 I am familiar with the LCHs but progress has been unimpressive: Inside Housing Councils have set up 58 companies to build homes since 2012 Exclusive Inside Housing research reveals which councils have set up housebuilding companies I agree that Labour ought to have done more between 1997 and 2010 but I think that they had other priorities and had to a large extent bought into the Tory housing policy. Anyway, the net result is that we have far too little affordable housing whether for rent or for purchase. Cheers, Frog in a tree
Bowman
05 Nov 2018
Divis this week frog_in_a_tree: The position that we are in has arisen from the Tory hatred of social housing which, they think, creates Labour voter (as per George Osborne). Oh dear! If you keep spouting this clap-trap for long enough, you might actually come to believe it. Yes, the sale of Council housing stock was started under the Tories but this was under Mrs Thatcher, and, yes, the biggest mistake was that the proceeds were not ploughed back into new housing stock. However, there was a period of about 10 years after this where the Labour party held sway. This time was more than enough for them to correct this mistake and to allow more Council house building, but they were content to leave the status quo in place. In fact the only apparent action was taken under a Conservative led administration when back in 2012 the Localism Act widened councils’ powers to establish Local Housing Companies (LHC). A LHC is a commercial house building company owned / controlled by a Council. A report published by the National Planning Forum and the Royal Town Planning Institute in December last year found 44% of councils now have an LHC. Now whilst most of these Companies have yet to deliver a meaningful contribtion to the housing stock, this apparent slow progress is partly down to the fact that 41 of the 58 firms (covering 49 Councils) were established within the past two years. At least it is a start, and it is up to the Councils to rectify and local housing problems, and they have the means to do so should they choose to use it. Martin Tett, housing spokesperson for the Local Government Association, said: “Councils are setting up housing companies to help plug gaps in their local housing markets. This can aim to help meet the need for affordable homes, move-on accommodation, housing for older people or the provision of good quality private rented homes. “But it is crucial that the Government provides a stable environment to allow councils to invest in homes from within and outside the Housing Revenue Account."
frog_in_a_tree
05 Nov 2018
Divis this week Sara, Once again a rather overblown argument from you. You know perfectly well that there is a general shortage of AFFORDABLE housing. Empty flats in London may well exist but are hardly typical of the whole of the UK. I agree with you that a lot of commercial premises could be turned into housing and this is already happening in every town and city as far as I can see. As for the empty investment housing properties in London, perhaps the best solution would be to requisition them and put them to use. In my opinion we need a vast project of Council house and Housing Association building to provide accommodation for those who need affordable rented properties. The position that we are in has arisen from the Tory hatred of social housing which, they think, creates Labour voter (as per George Osborne). The provision of vastly more social housing would help to deflate excessive house prices. Cheers, Frog in a tree
SaraRacano
05 Nov 2018
Divis this week “houses which are targetted at families which can’t afford to buy anyway. For me, both BDEV and TW remain BUYs.†A bit of a bizzare comment to say the least. You don’t have a real clue how the housing market operates now, this is the problem, writing about things you don’t really comprehend. Go to London, & the southbank (Battersea). An absolutely tremendous amount of flats gone up, yet at night many of these flats are pitch dark & you speak about a “general shortage of housingâ€. Again, as I have pointed out to poor old Malj1 who is having trouble with his tutti frutti´s. To make a statement that the inthe UK there is a general shortage of housing you must also consider the over-supply of commercial space & add this to the equation. sooner or later the commercial space will be turned into private dwellings. I don´t know where you live Frog, even if you get out into the real world( I fear not). Housing today is world wide. Today´s flats (the ones you see on the south bank) these are not dwellings (never were intended to be) this are just blocks of money (investments), the same with all these ghost cities in China. You need to wake up to the UK housing market, frog!
SaraRacano
04 Nov 2018
All over the place, malj1 You appear to be a person who has lost their head & more over some one who has very little knowledge of what is actuall going on, firstly a your statement " 6m transaction shortfall, equating to ca 1/4 UK total housing stock". First & foremost why has this happened? After all your whole agument is based on logical price sensitive markets. Why haven´t housebuilders been meeting actual demand? Once you explain this the rest of your arguments are going to appear gobblegook. Local councils the problem? Look at new build in London. The council grants permission to a constuctor, that constructor may give the local council 40m (only perhaps the price of two “luxary†penthouses. Going on a more technical (all your figures are estimates & estimates are nearly always wrong). UK commercial floor build, how much of current space is actually needed? There is already & incredible amount of waste commercial space. In future may many of these huge office blocks have to be put into residental use? Also if you look at London, especially & all these nuw build “luxary†flats, hardly anyone lives there. If you look at the electorate register in a 200 block of flats, you´ll be lucky if 3 flats are occupied. Office space/residential space are now only being built for investment purporses. You need to examine how the psychology of the market has changed. Far, far more international than say 20 years ago. 15m for a Penthouse in Stratford!!!
frog_in_a_tree
04 Nov 2018
Divis this week We are due a final divi from BDEV on Tuesday and an interim divi from Taylor Wimpy on Friday. Both are splashing the cash. I know that there is some worry about future prospects, especially in terms of a Brexit induced turndown in the economy but I don’t worry too much about that. There is plenty of fat on these cash cows as profit margins after costs of construction are wide. The general shortage of housing will also maintain profitability. Recent government announcements which aim at increasing the amount of Council house building, while welcome, are pretty much symbolic and will hardly make a dent in housing demand, too few houses which are targetted at families which can’t afford to buy anyway. For me, both BDEV and TW remain BUYs. Cheers, Frog in a tree
SaraRacano
30 Oct 2018
London & Beijing, what´s the difference? You can see how this all ends in disaster. GHow the GBP is supported by seculative capital inflows for money.
malj1
30 Oct 2018
Re: same old same Budget … blah blah blah … rearranging deckchairs … same ol’ same … boring … missed opportunity … As ever the UK housing market grinds continuously on, failing to implode despite the relentless claims that theendoftheworldisnigh from the usual doomsters. Who curiously having been wrong relentlessly for the past decade never seem to learn from their mistakes. Let alone acknowledge them. So I’ll stick with my projection/post from way earlier this year for ONS hpi end 2018 to be ca +4%. H2B extended for another couple of years, in a slightly tapered form, with extra SDLT exemptions essentially offsetting the taper. OMG Spreadsheet Phil having a window dressing moment there - overall pointless. The market comprehensively gridlocked at the mid/upper range due to the 2015 SDLT hike. Over the last decade there has been a ca 6m transaction shortfall, equating to ca 1/4 UK total housing stock, so now folk only move about once every 25 yrs (rather than once every 12-13 yrs pre the CC). Major bottlenecked demand there, & consequently the supply of housing (especially semi sheltered) for retirees is effectively nil. Overall the UK supply-demand imbalance is worse now than before the CC, is poised to start worsening exponentially, & with no one addressing this. Sooner or later we end up with another hpi boom - I just don’t know quite when. The builders are wildly cash generative, with wild amounts of net cash on the b/s, with l/b length to indicate apc is based on house prices on average about 5 yrs ago (with that level locking in a ca 20% op%/+20% ROCE). Curiously a central prime London hpi nascent hockey stick playing out. Smart money coming in ahead of a brexit deal? So I’ll be sticking around & nibbling each time Mr Mkt sees only the pit of utter despair. On the assumption of a brexit deal & concomitant banging of the drum, these will shift. But I know: theendoftheworldisnigh. Blah, blah, blah … heard it all b4 … record stuck in groove … consistently wrong … Einstein’s definition of madness etc …
Last-Call
27 Oct 2018
BDEV, POTENTIAL UPSIDE STAGGERING once it went above 497 and came back, it was fairly obvious triggering of buy orders before the coming drop. Maybe more impending market conditions than Bdev. Not sure. But its going to take a pounding for a stretch now imo
Last-Call
27 Oct 2018
BDEV, POTENTIAL UPSIDE STAGGERING 350p. See if its a buy there.
SaraRacano
16 Sep 2018
Comiendo el coco, frog? La Deuda The only way out of this is for the UK to join the €, full integration or nothing. In case you have not sussed it, Britexit is a trade war tool being used against the likes of Germany probably with the great support of the U.S. (it wouldn´t surprise me if the vote was rigged). Germany/Russia/China et al all want to get away from the U.S$ banking system which is a major threat to the U.S. Another secret, the 2008 banking crisis was far worse than any one let on, that´s why you have these “emergency measures†10 years later. QE cannot stop, central banks cannot raise % rates (it can prentend raising them .5% in 3 years). QE is a Ponzi (the whole idea of fiat money). BTW - Trump is just the vocal mouth piece of corporate America. The debt statistics over in the U.S. are no better than the UK. " left-field and conspiracy theory inspired posts." or the truth?
frog_in_a_tree
16 Sep 2018
Comiendo el coco, frog? La Deuda I agree that endebtedness is a problem…it always has been. I also agree that QE is problematic and has the nflated asset prices. QE was always a poorly focussed attempt to stimulate the economy in the place of Keynesian stimulous to which our government is ideologically opposed. Low interest rates are being increased but it will be a slow process. The cost of the 2008/09 crisis has been borne mainly by workers and hardly at all by bankers. Perhaps we might agree on this point? All that being said, Brexit has the potential to make a bad situation even worse. I rather think it is you that feasts on fake news what with all your left-field and conspiracy theory inspired posts. Cheers, Frog in a tree
SaraRacano
16 Sep 2018
Comiendo el coco, frog? La Deuda What am I saying??? Britexit, is the red herring. Debt levels are much dangerous to the health of the British economy, than any affects of Britexit. Britexit, is being used as an excuse for failed central bank & central government failed policies. All 0% rates have done is fuelled a gigantic debt bubble which cannot now be turned off. Help to buy, has just inflated asset prices, again fuelled debt levels. The way you have posted is that you see Britexit as far more dangerous to the UK economy than consumer/corporate/government debt levels. You have not (to my knowledge commented in relation to this & Britexit). You appear totally focused on fake news whilst forgetting the real underlinning issues that really plague the UK economy. Since 1996 (1984-88), most of the UK economic growth has just been a purge of debt on the back of increasing asset prices, nothing to do with productivity.
frog_in_a_tree
16 Sep 2018
Comiendo el coco, frog? La Deuda Sara, I am not quite clear about the point you are making regarding debt and Brexit. It is likely that we are due a serious market correction at some point soon as it is now overdue. I hope that if we do it will take house prices down a peg or two as the are ludicrously over priced. As for how Brexit relates to the UK economy it looks likely to be damaging and could even be a trigger for recession. Frog in a tree
