Lupo di mare
11 Sep 2015
Eurofighter deal 28 jets to be supplid to Kuwait, hence the nice little ris
gamesinvestor
07 Sep 2015
Re: Telegraph- Questor "In the last year the SP hit more than 540 so this statement seems wrong ?"Warren - well spotted -- it is indeed wrong.What's not wrong though is that the current P/E for 2015 is 11.5 and the PEG factor is 38.That probably doesn't matter that much given the short time to the end of this year, but looking forward BAE trading close to P/E of 11 and with a growth rate of 6% projected, leaving a PEG of 1.9 -- yes you can argue it's relatively cheap, but if it's revenue has fallen 18% in 5 years, what surety have we it can grow it again in the next 5 years with such strain on government spending (UK and US) and a somewhat stalled world growth?The US seems relatively disinterested in stopping ISIS and is unlikely to get involved in as many foreign wars with the current political regime.It's a gamble, and you might do well, but I was buying this stock well below 300p when it's revenue and pre-tax profit were higher than today, it's P/E was 6.Games
WarrenGemini
07 Sep 2015
Re: Telegraph- Questor "6. Share price trading close to 52 week highs, which in itself is not necessarily that meaningful except there is no room for shocks buying in at this level."In the last year the SP hit more than 540 so this statement seems wrong ?
gamesinvestor
06 Sep 2015
Spending Review [link] MoD have a target that we should be saving them [about] £200m a year,” Mr Newman said.In reality, the figure could be far greater."Games
gamesinvestor
06 Sep 2015
Re: Telegraph- Questor Soi, I think you need not worry, this share like all the others is likely to oscillate up and down so your trades are as good in BAE as any other.Games -- you'll probably see a bounce up from here.
soi
06 Sep 2015
Re: Telegraph- Questor Hi games Excellent post, drilled the fundamentals.If only others would do the same.I entered a SB long trade late last week, perhaps contrarian, often am.Agree with your view, I`m just looking for a short term opportunity, which may or may not happen.It might also be OK on a very long term view.Only time will tell.ATBsoi
gamesinvestor
06 Sep 2015
Re: Telegraph- Questor Intersting article, but for a stock analyst it seems particularly light on any figures explaining why BAE is where it is -- here are a few ideas :-The reason why the P/E is 11 is because the company has been in decline for 5 years. BAE is not a defensive company because it's business and government budgets are under threat, particularly with the ring fencing of NHS etc and the fact that the government's 2% protection figure is massaged as a number to role in some services to pad out the number. Some figures :-1. Falling Revenue -- £20.3Bn in 2009 ---> £16.7Bn projected end 2014.That's a fall off in business of 18% in 5 years. OK this is backward looking, but based on the recent large lost contract and the discussions about the bloated cost of the Typhoon do we really have confidence in the next 5 years? -- I dunno, do you?2. Earnings per Share (EPS) is also less now that in 2009 (37p compared to 40p in 2009) and this is despite the share buy backs which are supposed to flatter the EPS figure to help management bonuses (OK that was overly cynical of me).3. High PEG ratio of 2.0 going into next year based on a high P/E of 12.8 -- the highest BAE has experienced for years.4. No quoted ROCE -- I simply don't know how much is generated for each £ invested, and it doesn't seem to be a goal for the company unless I've missed something in the annual reports (I could stand to be corrected there).5. Dividend cover declining. Whilst still relatively comfortable it's fallen from well over 2 to 1.9 and not covered by cash flow, which is the only real true measurement of dividend cover.6. Share price trading close to 52 week highs, which in itself is not necessarily that meaningful except there is no room for shocks buying in at this level.7. Cash flow - was £1.1Bn short at the end of last year8. Debt is not enormous but still represents over 4.5 times it's current pre-tax profits.BAE is more than generously priced at this level.Games -- Prepares himself for a stiff riposte!
nk1999
28 Aug 2015
Telegraph- Questor "The Questor Column:Buy BAE Systems for value and dividend yield: BAE Systems missed out on a $6.8 billion contract to build 17,000 vehicles for the U.S. Army and Marines earlier this week, contributing to a dip in the defence group’s share price. American truck maker Oshkosh won the deal to replace ageing Humvees, and while it was a disappointment for BAE, it wasn’t the end of the world – in total 55,000 vehicles will be replaced. BAE is a tier 1 partner in the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter programme, building about 15% of each aircraft in what is the world’s biggest defence project with a $1.5 trillion lifetime value. While the jet itself is troubled – overweight, underpowered and unable to dogfight, critics claim – others say the sheer size of the project has generated such interest that flaws normal in developing a new aircraft have been blown out of proportion. The company is a partner in the Eurofighter Typhoon fighter programme, and needs to secure new export orders to keep production lines running. With an order backlog of £37.2 billion at the half-year, BAE is not going to run out of work soon, and although defence budgets have been under pressure for several years, the world is not getting any safer. Although the Typhoon programme poses a risk, Questor thinks the low valuation put on the shares means they rate a buy, maintaining the previous recommendation in September. Add in the fact they are down 20% on six months ago, the current depressed price presents a buying opportunity. BAE Systems at 446.1p +9.3p. Questor says “Buy.”nk
MrMeerkat
24 Aug 2015
Re: Out Morning CostasRight now, the sidelines!Unfortunately, while I am out of BA., I have plenty of other holdings that are a sea of red. I generally try to follow the maxim of 'time, not timing' but recent events are testing my resolve. For sure, my namesake Mr Market will be offering oversold prices at some point, especially in oils, minerals and EM financials, but I have no idea when the bottom will be reached. On the face of it, most fundamentals remain unchanged from 1-2 weeks ago so this is momentum-driven fear, imo. But for the moment, the knife keeps falling ...Good luck allMM
costas1234
21 Aug 2015
Re: Out Which sectors or business do you favour now
MrMeerkat
20 Aug 2015
Out I sold my holding yesterday when it fell through a trailing stop-loss level. I think BAES has several attractions but for me they are outweighed by uncertainties, not least the prospects for further Typhoon sales. In the current climate, I believe there are more attractive investment propositions being thrown up
gamesinvestor
30 Jul 2015
1/2 year results [link] better than anticipated, but profits still drag and the cash flow is now negative.Stock has lifted 1.34% this morning Games
gamesinvestor
30 Jul 2015
Re: Directors veksi - looks like you were right -- the results were better than expected anyhow.Games
veksi
29 Jul 2015
Re: Directors Expectations are not high, therefore, bae is more likely to surprise on the upside.Time to buy was at 450p just recently.
gamesinvestor
29 Jul 2015
Directors Given that the results are out soon, it might be worth waiting until after they are announced if you want to buy BAE as it could get hammered if the two big contracts, highlighted in the last post, are not signed.Also I see no evidence of confidence from management in the build up to these results, as they have not been buyers of the stock. In fact in the last months or this year, there have been only hefty sales by Ian King :-Traded Action Notifier Price Amount Value15-Apr-15  Sell Ian King 530.49p 173,960 £922,840.43 15-Apr-15 Exercise of option Ian King 457.00p 173,960 £794,997.23 13-Aug-14  Sell Ian King 430.95p 183,438 £790,526.10 15-Apr-15  Sell Ian King 530.49p 145,443 £771,560.60 15-Apr-15 Exercise of option Ian King 428.00p 145,443 £622,496.07 Games
