Hydrogen Economy
25 May 2015
Re: SP drop Owned BAE 2003-2005 and did nicely - sold a little early but nearly doubled price. Was interested in the differing views on outlook and whether worth taking a stake so took a very quick look.I note Digital Look showing forecast recovery in revenue and more so in PTP. I see they quote adjusted EPS, the reported numbers are grimmer at 5.p and 23.4p in 13/14 respectively - but the trend is back up after a deep dip. If the pre-tax forecast is right (and I would want some more information before believing it) that would give EPS in range 34-39p depending on effective tax rate that's a div cover around 1.9 and EPS 13.8 ish.Sadly there are plenty of ill winds gusting but many could benefit BAE. Overall I think worth deeper investigation, I'll be keeping it on watch. H2Year Ending Revenue (£m) Pre-tax (£m) EPS P/E PEG EPS Grth. Div Yield2010-12-31 20,980.00 1,409.00 39.80p 8.3 -11.1 -1% 17.50p 5.3% 2011-12-31 17,770.00 1,466.00 45.60p 6.3 0.4 15% 18.80p 6.6%2012-12-31 16,691.00 1,202.00 38.70p 8.7 -0.6 -15% 19.50p 5.8%2013-12-31 16,864.00 422.00 42.00p 10.4 1.2 9% 20.10p 4.6%2014-12-31 15,430.00 882.00 38.00p 12.4 -1.3 -10% 20.50p 4.3%Forecast2015-12-31 17,366.46 1,445.24 38.91p 13.1 5.4 2% 20.87p 4.0%2016-12-31 17,738.05 1,512.94 41.22p 12.3 2.1 6% 21.57p 4.2%
Hawk Eye32
24 May 2015
Re: SP drop The sp has increased by almost 25pc in the past year, I am aware this is lumbering giant, but if you sell these where do you for growth and income to replace? All quality stocks in theFTSE are at their high so perhaps it's better the Devil you know.
gamesinvestor
24 May 2015
Re: SP drop "I have sold most of my holding"Casey could be a good move. You view has changed, or you would still be holding the majority surely.I think the numbers I set out are more than just a few - just about every measurement has fallen away over 5 years except the stock price.Games -- I could be wildly wrong of course and people are so in love with big companies like BAE, that they can simply ignore the decline in the business and hope the stock price can only go up and to the right! Wasn't it Warren Buffet (an over quoted guy I know) who said that playing the greater fool theory was not investing, but speculating?
casey5521
13 May 2015
Re: SP drop YesI have sold most of my holding, but am still confident in BAeA wobble and a few numbers will not change my viewKC
gamesinvestor
13 May 2015
Re: SP drop "BAe is a solid and successful outfit,"Casey, is it?It's revenue has been in decline for 5 yearsIt's pre-tax profit has slumped from £1.4Bn in 2010 to £882M 2014 after hitting £422M in 2013.It's borrowings have grown from £2.1BN in 2010 to £2.86Bn in 2014 or a 36% increaseThe P/E now stands at 13 (high for a low/no growth company) compared to just 8.3 in 2010It's net assets have fallen from £5.4Bn in 2010 to £1.8Bn in 2014The dividend has increased but the dividend cover is slipping every yearThe projected EPS is the same in 2015 as back in 2010 at 38p despite falling profitsGames -- It's a big solid company agreed, but as an investment, it's certainly not bullet proof (pardon the pun).
II Editor
24 Apr 2015
NEW ARTICLE: BAE Systems puts US business up for sale "LSE:BA.:BAE Systems is considering selling part of its American business after receiving a number of enquiries from potential buyers. News that the US-based manpower and services businesses of the defence giant's US Intelligence and Security ..."[link]
II Editor
24 Apr 2015
NEW ARTICLE: BAE Systems puts US business up for sale "LSE:BA.:BAE Systems is considering selling part of its American business after receiving a number of enquiries from potential buyers. News that the US-based manpower and services businesses of the defence giant's US Intelligence and Security ..."[link]
casey5521
23 Apr 2015
Re: SP drop LNot sure on that, I will see when it stops falling...480p...?I think there will be a sharp riseBAe is a solid and successful outfit, so I have no doubt it will recover - no matter how sorry it loks nowKC
lagolis
23 Apr 2015
Re: SP drop buy a few when it dropped to 512.I will be tempted to buy few more.KC - what will be your entry point?Lagolis
casey5521
23 Apr 2015
Re: SP drop I agreeI think it will drop a little moreAfter the election, the politicos will continue to slag off each other, followed by a lot of name callingThe rest of us however can get on with our livesThen the SP will bounce backI sold a few k earlier, but will buy back after it has bottomed outGLAKC
brownsfriend
23 Apr 2015
SP drop Looks like a bout of pre-election jitters long term holders should you use this opportunity to top up IMHO the short term noise will soon go away.
lagolis
23 Apr 2015
Re: Director sales How did the directors know best time was to get out before XD date.What a collapse from 540 to 503 for 12p dividend!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
gamesinvestor
17 Apr 2015
Director sales 15-Apr-15 BAE Systems BA. Lynas, Peter 13,386 @ 530.49p £71,011 15-Apr-15 BAE Systems BA. Lynas, Peter 62,855 @ 530.49p £333,440 15-Apr-15 BAE Systems BA. Lynas, Peter 12,105 @ 530.49p £64,216 15-Apr-15 BAE Systems BA. King, Ian 173,960 @ 530.49p £922,840 15-Apr-15 BAE Systems BA. King, Ian 145,443 @ 530.49p £771,561 15-Apr-15 BAE Systems BA. King, Ian 11,286 @ 530.49p £59,871 15-Apr-15 BAE Systems BA. Lynas, Peter 73,522 @ 530.49p £390,027 15-Apr-15 BAE Systems BA. Lynas, Peter 75,887 @ 530.49p £402,573
II Editor
16 Apr 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 17/04/2015 "BAe PLC (LSE:BA.)Â completes our Aerospace and Defence Sector week. The share is on the cusp of making a "no brainer" signal for the future as, should it now CLOSE above 547p, the price can be expected to grow to 560p with secondary 574p. ..."[link]
LEO1455
12 Apr 2015
Re: Investec again 7 DB schemes is clearly a consequence of the many separate companies that are now all part of BAE systems. Merging of some of these schemes would certainly be possible but the resulting cost savings would probably not be significant. There would be a cost in carrying out the mergers. Because each scheme probably has different rules any mergers would just result separate sections within one scheme. So if two schemes were merged you could get rid of one actuary but the remaining actuary would only have slightly less work than the previous two schemes. PPF levies are proportionate to scheme size so merging of two schemes will not significantly reduce the PPF levy.Liability driven investing is very attractive from both a trustee point of view and the sponsoring employer but clearly this only really works if the scheme is fully funded. If the scheme has a deficit then some proportion of the scheme assets need to be invested in growth assets to try and make up the deficit unless the sponsoring employer is happy to rectify the deficit by deficit recovery payments only! Two of the most important tools available to Trustees are hedging and swaps. Most large pension schemes will have significant hedging and swap derivatives in place. Both interest rate and inflation hedges reduce volatility and unrewarded risk. Clearly trustees take extensive advice on these issues.Gilts are used by the actuary as the returns from Gilts are regarded as risk free. However, where the trustees and the actuary have more flexibility is regard to the discount rate (the assumed rate of return that the schemes assets can achieve above the risk free rate). Clearly a discount rate of gilts + 2% will result in a much less demanding recovery plan than gilts + 1%.Best RegardsLEO1455
