gamesinvestor
01 Aug 2017
Downgrade [link] --- is their wild guess.Games
Proverbs 26 vs 5
01 Aug 2017
Not all Doom and Gloom III BTD for AZ's acalabrutinib in mantle cell lymphomaThe US Food and Drug Administration has granted AstraZeneca and its haematology research and development centre of excellence, Acerta Pharma, breakthrough therapy designation for acalabrutinib for the treatment of patients with mantle cell lymphoma (MCL) who have received at least one prior therapy. Acalabrutinib is a highly-selective, potent Bruton tyrosine kinase (BTK) inhibitor in development for the treatment of multiple B-cell cancers. BTD is designed to expedite the development and regulatory review of new medicines that are intended to treat a serious condition and that have shown encouraging early clinical results, which demonstrate substantial improvement on a clinically-significant endpoint over available medicines and when there is significant unmet medical need. Executive vice-president, global medicines development and chief mdical officer at AstraZeneca, Sean Bohen, said: "New treatments are urgently needed for people with mantle cell lymphoma who relapse or do not respond to current therapy. Breakthrough Therapy Designation for acalabrutinib will help us bring this potential new medicine to appropriate patients as quickly as possible." Story provided by StockMarketWire.com
nick2name
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith - and missin... yeah i promise i wn't tell your wifebut just out of interestwot's her bank account number, sort code and pin numberi promise i wn't tell your wife
gamesinvestor
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith - and missin... R -- Yes it has done in the last 3 years.Regarding fun, I agree it's no fun being eposed to a FTSE 100 and 350 tracker when you have to absorb all the mxnters in the index together with anything that performs.I have a US and a UK/Europe portfolio and for "excitement", (don't tell the wife will ya?) I have some AIM stocks.Things like :-Advanced Medical Solutions -- up 104% so far - long may it last.Renishaw - not AIM but never greatly in the press - up 130%Abcam - Up 28%Anpario - up 28%Molins - Up 8% although it crashed and burned before recovery - I wouldn't recommend this.Victrex - 25%Alliance Pharma - flat -- just bought it Biggest disaster was one I followed after Woody sang from the roof tops and lumped a couple of hundred million in -- Circassia (Cat Allergy, turned out to be a right pxssy) -- never again he shouts will I put money into a Biotech, or take heed of what the famous guy says !!Seems to be much more sensible to think for yourself -- assuming you have the capacity to do so LOL -- if not there's always Woody, he'll do the "not thinking" for you very nicely !!!Games -- Companies with low debt or net cash seem to be the ones that have done well pour moi!! - Oh and definitely where the CEO/CFO have significant skin in the game (as opposed to bxlls on the line).
Rhigos
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith - and missin... Proverbs 26 vs 5, "My portfolio is over 26 sectors with the biggest being Pharma & Life Sciences."Does your portfolio outperform the Total Return FTSE 100 index? If not, or only by a percent or so, wouldn't it be a lot easier to have a few FTSE 100 or FTSE 350 index tracker funds? Though perhaps not as much fun.
fitcontroller
31 Jul 2017
onward and upward bouncing back nicely
iswl
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith Bill/Games, thanks for providing an interesting analysis on Fundsmith. My youngest son has been privately educated (and still is) thanks to Mr T Smith and team and a good deal of my SIPP (at least the most profitable part) also is down to El TelI think the point you are both missing is that he gets paid the big bucks to make these calls and it's no matter of conjecture that he gets them, for the most part, correct. I'm very confident if he sees the end of any sector cycle, let alone a specific company one, he will make the necessary adjustments.Incidentally, the reason why I first got into Fundsmith is through a recommendation of a senior manager in the Bank of America and a few of his colleagues. None of which could professionally recommend the fund but of of which privately do.He it going guys, it's good reading, intelligent and most of all, entertaining.regards
gamesinvestor
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith """ all well and good for Terry and for anyone else who hold them (or him), but whither the outlook for future returns - from HERE? ""Bill - you can take any 5-10 year period for many of these stocks and they have performed.""but would you buy into his fund, as it stands, at the moment? Or these individual stocks??""Not the fund no, but I own and will buy more of some of these marked *MicrosoftPayPal *UnileverNovo Nordisk *Imperial TobaccoKoneAmadeus *JM SmuckerEstee LauderI'd buy Diageo again at the right price and when Ivan has been booted out.Games
Bill1703
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith " ... I rather assume Terry's (or his team or whatever) take the view that the companies generate lots of money from relatively modest capital outlay... That's why it's noted that companies like these go on to provide long term fantastic returns over time."Yes, that's the history - over a long period. But there've been fairly long periods when "Staples" have not performed well... these things go in cycles. But many of these stocks are up 40-50% over the past couple of years, and some much more (eg. ULVR)... all well and good for Terry and for anyone else who hold them (or him), but whither the outlook for future returns - from HERE? "It's hard to take that away from him and perhaps there isn't a need to have a sprawling mass of shares in each and every sector of the market."So no, I wouldn't attempt to take much away from him... and yes, to offer properly differentiated "active" management, you have to have at least a degree of concentration. He's been in the right areas generally these past two years or so, for sure... I am merely raising the issue of his out-sized exposure to areas that may well be at, or approaching, their cyclical highs (talking of market cycles, not economic cycles - very different animals!)So yes, he's offered the right exposure looking back - but would you buy into his fund, as it stands, at the moment? Or these individual stocks?? The answers in turn being, for me - definitely not, and for the most part not. You can't buy P&G where it was 30 years ago, much as it would be nice (and much as executive share options often effectively allow our well-upholstered directors so to do - but that is quite another matter!)"I guess you could argue that Philip Morris or IMB which probably makes up a good % of the 29.7% is realistically Consumer Discretionary..."Hmmmm not so sure... true, you can dissect pretty much any sector and raise issues with any constituent parts. But are most of Diageo's products really "staples" on this argument... or Pepsi's? Or even much of Unilever's product list... who actually 'needs' premium fancy-flavoured ice cream, or pot noodles?? The vast majority of all consumer "staple" products are really discretionary, but that is not what distinguishes them from true consumer cyclicals, like hotels, restaurants, airlines - hence the generally observed classification. So again, hats off to Terry, I wish 30% of my portfolio was in consumer staples, just at the moment... but if it was, I would looking at reducing this at least somewhat as a matter of some urgency. Maybe he indeed is? Like Woody, I am sure he will tell us... but after the event, not before!
gamesinvestor
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith ""That Terry has 12 out of 29 stocks in this Consumer Staple space is indeed a high degree of sector concentration""Bill - it's difficult to say and I rather assume Terry's (or his team or whatever) take the view that the companies generate lots of money from relatively modest capital outlay - so regardless of the cyclical effects of markets or certain "volaitility" they just keep making money for their shareholders.That's why it's noted that companies like these go on to provide long term fantastic returns over time. The often quoted P&G example is one :-Even though this company has been managed by eejits from time to time and particularly over the last 5-7 years, it still managed to turn $10,000 into $1.7Million since 1970.Granted that's a long time but Terry's short history in Fundsmith isn't really representative of his experience, as he managed the pension funds in his previous companies and he changed them from bond laced deficit laden entities into good returning units in surplus year in year out.It's hard to take that away from him and perhaps there isn't a need to have a sprawling mass of shares in each and every sector of the market.But having said that if you look at the list, there is still a good diversification and less in consumer than all the erroneous press statements suggest.His fund consists of :-29.7% Consumer Staples29.35 Healthcare25.2% Technology8% Industrials4.5% Consumer Discretionary3.3% in CashI guess you could argue that Philip Morris or IMB which probably makes up a good % of the 29.7% is realistically Consumer Discretionary as it's not necessary or desirable (to others) to smoke and it's the addictive nature that perhaps allows it to become a "staple".Games
Proverbs 26 vs 5
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith - and missin... My portfolio is over 26 sectors with the biggest being Pharma & Life Sciences.
Bill1703
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith "I guess the only example of misleading I have seen is his claim he doesn't invest in Pharmaceitical stocks (GSK-AZN article I previously posted), when he had J&J in his top 10."Games - I am not talking about deliberate or even direct "misleading" here, I am talking about the misdirection that can happen when Terry overstates or vividly illustrates his point for effect, as his wont and as is, of course, an effective rhetorical device, but his acolytes - of whom there are many - take him literally..."In terms of his 16-17 correlated stocks here they are -- it looks like 10 correlated areas to me..."Well, I believe Terry was talking about 16/17 "UNcorrelated stocks"... but thanks for your analysis of his list, which I think proves my point about sector concentration. I, and many others, would lump all of Tobacco, Food, HPC and Beverages into the same Consumer Staple bracket... you could term them "consumer defensives" as apposed to the "consumer cyclical" space. These sub-sectors are certainly all correlated to a degree - the sector performance stats will bear this out - short, medium and indeed longer term.That Terry has 12 out of 29 stocks in this Consumer Staple space is indeed a high degree of sector concentration, I would argue - as opposed to, for example, only one (IHT) in Consumer Cyclicals. No law against this, of course, and all well and good, when the wider sector is on the up, as it has been for the past year or two... but sectors tend to rotate in and out of favour over time, and only time will tell if Terry can maintain his impressive performance figures as the cycle turns. "I think Woody fudges his monthly growth figures (for which he grows his fees from) by buying more unlisted shares in these 43 companies and revalueing the earlier investments in those companies -- a kind of self managed growth - when we all know that of those 43 companies the value is probably close to Jack Schizzer as LK would name it."A very strong accusation, Games! Any evidence for this at all? I am not defending Woody, his long stock list or his investment mandate - I don't have any funds invested in him, never have, and I doubt I ever will. Though I am equally unlikely to buy into Tel's Consumer Staples fund - at least at the top of that particular sector cycle, where we may well be now (or at least, close to it) - however good an idea that would've been a couple of years back!
gamesinvestor
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith - and missing what's missing from Terry's portfolio :-BanksInsurance CompaniesFund ManagersCommodities - including oilHeavy IndustrialMilitaryTelecomPropertyRetailOutsourcersBondsPubs and RestaurantsWoody's portfolioGames - The last one was a bit cheeky I guess !!
gamesinvestor
31 Jul 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith ""Hmmm, OK, J&J have a few tabs in their portfolio""LK - J&J's pharma business is bigger than AZN and GSK combined.Games -- That's quite a few tabs innit !!
Proverbs 26 vs 5
31 Jul 2017
Not Quite all Doom & Gloom II AstraZeneca and MedImmune, its global biologics research and development arm, have announced that the US Food and Drug Administration has granted breakthrough therapy designation for Imfinzi (durvalumab) for the treatment of patients with locally-advanced, unresectable non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) whose disease has not progressed following platinum-based chemoradiation therapy. Executive vice-president, global medicines development and chief medical officer at AstraZeneca, Sean Bohen, said: "For patients who have not progressed following chemoradiation therapy the only current option is active monitoring. "Unfortunately, for the majority of patients, their cancer will progress to metastatic disease, typically within 12 months. "Imfinzi is the first immuno-oncology medicine to show a clinically-significant benefit in this earlier, non-metastatic setting, so following the breakthrough designation we hope to bring it to patients as soon as possible." AstraZeneca said the breakthrough therapy designation was designed to expedite the development and regulatory review of new medicines that were intended to treat a serious condition and that had shown encouraging early clinical results, which demonstrated substantial improvement on a clinically-significant endpoint over available medicines and when there was significant unmet medical need. At 9:17am: (LON:AZN) AstraZeneca PLC share price was +67p at 4548.5p Story provided by StockMarketWire.com
