gamesinvestor
04 Aug 2017
Nowhere to Run to Baby !! Looks like SorryHat would have been jumping from the frying pan into the fire if he'd accepted the Teva job -- well at least according to this :-""""""Teva’s share price tumbled 18 per cent on Thursday after the Israeli drugs group reported a $6bn loss, slashed its dividend and said it would not rush a protracted search for a chief executive.Underscoring the scale of the challenge for any new leader, the world’s largest maker of copycat drugs took a $6.1bn impairment charge on its US generics business, which includes the Allergan unit it bought last year for about $40.5bn."""""Mind you, I don't suppose any of these guys give a monkey's as the pay policies are all set for zero risk and massive bonuses if you achieve EPS growth or you fail and get kicked out.[link] -- such a jaundiced view, it's not becoming of one, what?
gamesinvestor
03 Aug 2017
AZN article in Shares mag ""Analysts are split on whether drugs titan AstraZeneca (AZN) can bounce back from the shocking failure of its MYSTIC lung cancer trial as fears of a dividend cut and opportunistic takeover bids emerge.Shares in AstraZeneca crashed 15.6% on 27 July after the trial failed to demonstrate that a combination of durvalumab and tremelimumab immunotherapies could help patients in theadvanced stages of lung cancer. After a modest recovery they trade at £45.42.AstraZeneca has been trying to catch up to leaders in immunotherapy – a means of treatingcancer and other diseases which taps into the power of the immune system.COULD THE DIVIDEND BE CUT?Beaufort Securities analyst Ben Maitland has downgraded AstraZeneca to ‘sell’ on the faileddrug trial and believes the dividend is at risk.He has also cut his forecast target price by 11% to £39.‘Looking forward, we are becoming more concerned that the core AstraZeneca business isnot generating enough cash to justify its generous dividend policy,’ comments Maitland.He believes the full year 2018 dividend is at risk and suspects that a cut in a range of 25% to50% may be on the cards. In the full year to 31 December 2016, AstraZeneca paid $2.80 per share.Maitland says a potential takeover of the company is unlikely as nothing has significantly changed since US rival Pfizer tried to acquire AstraZeneca in 2014.This deal was largely justified by UK cost cutting and tax rate savings and was ultimately blocked by the authorities.He believes AstraZeneca is not deterred from its oncology focus, despite the setback and the high capital expenditure spent on the MYSTIC trial.EARNINGS HIT QUANTIFIEDJefferies is also negative and says the ‘failure of MYSTIC to hit the progression-free survivalendpoint for the mono and combo arms is a significant blow.’ The investment bank estimatesthe disappointing results have wiped off between 10% and 15% of mid-term earnings and valuation from AstraZeneca.Despite AstraZeneca’s setback, Jefferies believes the company has an interesting pipeline andhighlights that the Imfinzi (durvalumab) drug experienced success in other areas and could beused to treat other cancers.It adds the pipeline could make the pharma giant a ‘potential consolidation target, once thenegative impact of MYSTIC has been priced in.’Cantor Fitzgerald’s Brian White also sees recovery potential in AstraZeneca thanks to the strong launch of oncology drugs Lynparza and Tagrisso, which generated $59m and $232m in sales in the first half of 2017.AstraZeneca trades on a forecast 15.1 times earnings per share in the year to 31 December 2018. [LMJ]Games
gamesinvestor
03 Aug 2017
Shire Anyone interested in Shire results for Q2, they are just out and the stock just popped up 4.5%[link]
Proverbs 26 vs 5
02 Aug 2017
AstraZeneca Stages Major Lung Cancer Comeback Too much to copy & paste. Read it here:c356ec396bb9565f9165664115b9c5c&uprof=46&dr=1#alt1" target="blank" rel="nofollow">[link]
Chicken Lips
02 Aug 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith Games I totally agree. Its not Woodentop but more Spotty (the) Dog in terms of company selection. My investing strategy at this current time is to get out of anything he is in currently.
Bill1703
02 Aug 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith "Anyway, here's hoping he makes a good recovery - there but for the... "And you can say the same for the SP, perhaps... needless to say, I have been talking a quick look at the AA as a possible "value" story now.And it looks like Games has a point... I cannot recall a more leveraged quoted business! Makes the utility stocks look like Apple... 8x net debt to EBITDA!!! If you include the pension deficit... FCF generation (and valuation) is very good - but it kinda needs to be!
gamesinvestor
02 Aug 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith "who hasn't been sorely tempted to have a swing at a colleague."That's what I like, deal with the issue in a first hand manner !!Games - punchy story!
asand
02 Aug 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith "in a hotel bar"Sounds like the mental health issues could have a link with DiageoAnyway, here's hoping he makes a good recovery - there but for the...
Bill1703
02 Aug 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith "Gross misconduct .... that sounds pretty serious. I wonder what he did?"The Daily Mail is reporting the following today: "The AA has sacked its executive chairman for gross misconduct over claims he lashed out a colleague during a 'Jeremy Clarkson moment' at a hotel bar.... However, his family have denied that he was fired and instead said he resigned over an 'extremely distressing mental health issue'. It is believed that he has checked himself into a private London hospital, while he recuperates. A source close to the family told The Daily Telegraph: 'Bob had what I would describe as a Jeremy Clarkson moment. He is not well.'""Looks clear cut enough... even if the "mental health" story is an obvious cover-up - if he really was ill, he probably wouldn't have had the presence of mind to check himself in, sharpish!But hard not to have some sympathy, of course... who hasn't been sorely tempted to have a swing at a colleague... or two? Most of them have it coming...
gamesinvestor
01 Aug 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith "but the old bruiser does seem to have had a REALLY unfortunate run of it, just lately...!!"Bill - I'd put that down as the understatement of the year.His stock picks over the last years have been woeful at best.North West BiotherapeuticsRolls RoyceCircassiaProvident FinancialCentricaAllied MindsCapitaThe AAI could go on, but there isn't enough space on an A4 sheet.As for "unfortunate" - I'd say it's not unfortunate at all - if you pick shoddy companies that are highly indebted then you will be "unfortunate" at best.It's hard to find many that you could call successful -- I have no idea how he keeps claiming a positive month for the fund. Well I do actually but it's an unpalatable statement so I best leave it out.Games
Bill1703
01 Aug 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith "I was amused to see that Woodentop was one of the big backers of the AA, which has just sacked its executive chairman for "gross misconduct" leading to a Big Fag-style meltdown in the AA share price! Gross misconduct .... that sounds pretty serious. I wonder what he did?"It is always fun to speculate on the reasons behind such things... unusually sudden and final as they are here. Normally there'd be an announcement about a suspension, pending internal investigations, etc, etc.No-one in the press has got a scoop on this, as yet, as far as I can see... a "personal conduct" issue, apparently, of a "sensitive" nature and legally "delicate"? Liberum were quoted as saying it didn't look like any kind of fraud, difficult to say whether they are guessing or have been tipped off... though I suppose the company would've had to declare it if it was?A 63 year old... gentlemen of a "certain age", and all that... it is easy enough to start building a picture - however presumptive that may prove to be!I must say - I am never one to join in the gratuitous Woody bashing... but the old bruiser does seem to have had a REALLY unfortunate run of it, just lately...!!
gamesinvestor
01 Aug 2017
Would you invest in..... a company with borrowings of :-£2.839BN and an after tax profit of £74MThat's a ratio of 38XIt's revenues don't grow very much over time and it's profits are erratic at best.Can you guess who it is?Games
gamesinvestor
01 Aug 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith " I was amused to see that Woodentop was one of the big backers of the AA"I don't understand why anyone buys anything from a Private Equity company. They buy it distressed, load it with debt and sell it at a high price.You'd have to have a wooden top not to understand that.Games
Bill1703
01 Aug 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith "I was amused to see that Woodentop was one of the big backers of the AA, which has just sacked its executive chairman for "gross misconduct" leading to a Big Fag-style meltdown in the AA share price! Gross misconduct .... that sounds pretty serious. I wonder what he did?"Maybe he overinflated his tyres? They take a dim view of that over there...
LK Hyman
01 Aug 2017
Re: Correlation - Fundsmith Bill,"I am not defending Woody"Me neither. I was amused to see that Woodentop was one of the big backers of the AA, which has just sacked its executive chairman for "gross misconduct" leading to a Big Fag-style meltdown in the AA share price! Gross misconduct .... that sounds pretty serious. I wonder what he did?LKH on the flybridge they laughed when I sat down at the piano ... but when I started to play ...
