romaron
12 Apr 2018
Can I come out now? Now the dust has begun to settle and the febrile AIM punters have corrected their knee jerks maybe it is time to reflect. I took advantage of the fact that I have attended the last 3 AGM's and spoke today to one of the Avanti people I know from various conversations at them [AGMs].The mess with the dates was an oversight (registrars?) and may have been concentrating on the small print and legalities whilst missing the bleedin' obvious. I did say that I hope individuals concerned had nothing to do with programming of Hylas 4. The main reason for all this paperwork is nervous Nomads and the Takeover Panel. He also mentioned lawyers and advisers in addition but it is the TO panel and Nomads who are yes men to the TO panel that create this need for being whiter than white. Because Solus will end up with a large percentage of equity but don't wish to buy the company they need to get a Rule 9 waiver from the panel. This means that the paperwork works almost from a 'worst case' scenario which means that insolvency rears its ugly head. Yes there is a risk of insolvency but also a chance that I may get run over by a bus tomorrow or Russia will bomb Salisbury. The word 'paranoid' was used when Nomad was mentioned. There is nothing stopping Avanti personnel from buying or selling stock because (apparently) everything is out there and transparency is the order of the day. The 3 biggest bond holders are on the board and another in the US has indicated they will fall into step. I asked about M&G (equity) and they don't really have an option to break ranks anyway as they wanted the debt for equity deal (or were signed up to it).My contact was mystified at the share movements and we both guessed it was the 'insolvency' word. The amounts are tiny in the scheme of things and the share price was in the doldrums whilst trading was desultory before. Any aggressive buying or selling in this case is likely to get momentum. My guess is that sellers got first mover advantage and will take profits quickly before the meeting on 25th (I may attend). I expect the share to move back to the .11225 figure and maybe higher. The bond holders have nothing to gain from starving the company of near term funds imo.I am happy with the explanations I got which if you think about it, we already knew!Be Lucky
romaron
09 Apr 2018
Re: Beaufort sec tip We've known for some time that the share price has been a wet finger in the air guess. The company is either worth zero or something as a going concern. Hedge funds are notorious for their 'activism' which is always self-serving. All I know is that for a modest sum the stock price can be manipulated daily. Directors wishing to avoid claims of negligence follow the rules and let the market know when solvency is at risk. I cannot imagine Paul Walsh wishing to be associated with any illegal chicanery and the RNS was probably held back until after the launch. It is not a surprise. At this time I have no idea what will happen but a gut feeling that this is regulatory and whatever happens there is some value here. If the worst happens there will not be enough to leave shareholders anything after dismemberment. We'll know by the end of the month.
terryebby
09 Apr 2018
Re: Beaufort sec tip Thats just posturing form the bondholders who are on the Board to make sure no-one objects to the debt for equity swap
Ripley94
09 Apr 2018
Re: Beaufort sec tip RNS Open offer @ 11.25 ...above shows 9p - 10.35% .Not sure how that's going to attract ?TW blog states they are warning could go bust even with the fund raise.
terryebby
06 Apr 2018
Re: LIVE LAUNCH VIDEO judging by this mornings announcement that the long drawn out JV between Viasat and EUTELSAT for Africa is dead, I would say Avanti is about to sell A LOT to Vista, possibly the entire company. One of Avanti's bond holders, Tennenbaum was An owner of Wild Blue, the early US equivalent of Avanti, and they sold that to Viasat a few years ago.
Accypete
06 Apr 2018
Re: LIVE LAUNCH VIDEO just need some good salespeople and new contracts.As always !!!Avanti have a poor sales record, lets hope it improves from here on.
terryebby
06 Apr 2018
big news - viasat Hours after the successful launch of HYLAS 4, it has been announced that the long mooted JV between EUTELSAT and Viasat has been terminated. Viasat must have an alternative strategy for getting capacity in Africa. WHAT COULD THAT POSSIBLE BE !!!!!!!!
terryebby
06 Apr 2018
Re: LIVE LAUNCH VIDEO That really was amazing. It really brings home to you what an astonishing feat of engineering it all is. Well done to those engineers who built it.Big milestone, trebles the capacity of the Company
the real stan
05 Apr 2018
**** in orbit ***** That's it. HYLAS 4 is in orbit. I guess there will be an RNS in the morning and then we have to wait for news of final testing.
romaron
05 Apr 2018
Re: LIVE LAUNCH VIDEO They've all started clapping and smiling. It's gone well. Riveting TV, I didn't think I'd feel so involved. Well done Avanti, Orbital and Arianne.
the real stan
05 Apr 2018
Re: LIVE LAUNCH VIDEO 10 mins into flight. All good. in 25 mins HYLAS 4 separates and the launch job is done.
terryebby
05 Apr 2018
LIVE LAUNCH VIDEO It looks like we can watch the launch live here at 10.15pm tonight: [link]
romaron
05 Apr 2018
Re: ready to launch That may well be the case terryebby and I suspect there were definitely bits that would interest ISAT but they have their own problems and perhaps the finance wasn't forthcoming. Maybe they chose to sit and wait whilst Avn expired, expecting a fire-sale forced by the bond holders. It was a close call and the story is still running. I struggle to understand the lack of interest and low amount and number of trades as we know that AIM is a casino. I would have thought more PI's would have taken a punt. Maybe the small number of free shares has something to do with it? It certainly precludes any large selling and buying by other institutions, competitors and funds. Next week will be interesting following a successful launch.
terryebby
05 Apr 2018
Re: ready to launch There is an Arianespace Launch film up which shows that th capacity goes as far as Latin America Which I dot not realise. I knew it covered North Atlantic, and that is where I think the most In Flight capacity is going to be needed. Because Avanti don't have dedicated switches in their teleports, customers can put their own in, that means that any of the IFC companies can buy capacity and add it to their global coverage. I think this is the biggest upside. On The Inmarsat thing, I spoke to one of the PR people at an event last year and he said that the Inmarsat offer was of course real and the Times writer had the salient details of the Offer, but they did not want it played out in public at a time when they were in the middle of a Bond roadshow so whenever leaked it killed a real opportunity stupidly.
romaron
05 Apr 2018
Re: ready to launch Well I don't know if the potential contract is for wi-fi on planes but you do raise an interesting point. Inmarsat (ISAT) are struggling on that front and were contacted during our strategic review in July 2016 but vehemently denied that they had made an offer. In some respects I think (to paraphrase Shakespeare) 'the company doth protest too much, methinks. Avn opened a kinda data room during the review and I doubt very much that ISAT could have resisted being nosey. I don't think Rightmove cover satellite companies.Private investors in Avn now are practically hedge funds as they [the hedge funds] decided not to wipe us out and would, if behaving to type, have future plans. I'm no expert but I think that we could fill in a few gaps on ISAT's coverage and things have changed. Apart from the industrialised countries the rest of the world struggles with cables and in space it's even harder to lay. The attempts with drones and balloons may yet come up trumps but the tried and tested satellite systems do have a certain plug in and go functionality. It will be a different game once H4 is up and running. Be lucky
