Lets assume a EV/EBITDA multiple of 8, so EV of $4bn. Knock off the debt and you get around $25 or 1600p per share. Obviously there are lots of execution issues to get through, but I think this is a reasonable target if the company can execute.
In the interim statement, the company repeated that, in the longer term (presumably with Hylas 4 full), EBITDA would be $500m. Current debt is $520m, and there will be additional debt for Hylas 4 of $125m - so $645m in total. After the placing there are 136.3m shares in issue.
Prominent chartist's view is that Avanti is a Company that suffers very much from being in the sights of bear traders and hedge funds. However now sees upside towards 350 by end December.
Link may not be working. I have it at Ennismore European Smaller Companies Fund. Investor Newsletter for October - Issued 7th November. Ref is www.ennismorefunds.com/documents/OEIC/OEIC%20-%20Most%20Recent%20NL.pfd
Ennismore have given their opinion re Avanti at [link] No doubt this seeks to justify their short. Any views would be appreciated.
Source is the Castellain Capital Short Interest Tracker which has consistently shown 1.2% short and is now showing no information for Avanti. This may simply be that the site is down over the Easter break. Any clarification would be welcome
Ennismore seem to have disappeared from my radar tracking of their short position. This means they have either closed out or are now below 5%. can anyone confirm what must be good news?
Weather could be a prob with drones and balloons?
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