janebolacha
06 May 2015
Article in Daily Mail, "This is Money". [link]
janebolacha
05 May 2015
New interview with FD Richard Wolanski [link]
janebolacha
30 Apr 2015
Re: BBB- Not bad at all, on a par with Glencore, GM, Ford, Cigna............[link]
catsick
29 Apr 2015
BBB- Not too shabby , rated as investment grade , 1 notch above junk , that is actually ok and should enable them to get financing under the mtn programme at tighter spreads than they are currently paying , all of which will feed through to the bottom line ....
janebolacha
27 Apr 2015
From IMS issued 19/02/2015:"The Company's aircraft fleet currently comprises 29 aircraft which generates a gross rental yield of approximately 13 per cent, calculated from the book value as at 31 December 2014. The Company has a customer base of airlines in Europe and Asia/Pacific. Avation understands that it is the now the second largest lessor of turbo-prop aircraft in Asia/Pacific."" The average cost of debt capital across the group further reduced to 4.6% (31 December 2013: 5.5%); "With this kind of margin on leases of 6-12 years (AVAP's average is about 9 years) in an industry set for continuous rapid growth, the attraction of aircraft leasing companies becomes obvious.I also read in another WSJ article from 2012 that the percentage of aircraft that are leased, rather than bought, doubled in the previous decade, now topping 40%.All IMHO, DYOR.
janebolacha
27 Apr 2015
Asian interest in acquiring aircraft leasing businesses This is an article from Wall Street Journal from about six months ago on the appetite for aircraft leasing companies among Asian investors:[link]
janebolacha
27 Apr 2015
Reduction of risk of dilution through placings This seems to be a very sensible move, to facilitate more rapid expansion while reducing very much the risk of dilution through equity placings. The scale of the figure mentioned seems to be in line with Jeff Chatfield's announced ambition to reach in the near term the US$1bn mark in terms of assets under leasing. [link] margin between the cost of financing and the leasing charges on aircraft is already quite good. It seems to make sense to take advantage of present super-low interest rates to lock in profits over the lease terms, normally 6 or 12 years.I'd imagine that there will be new lease deals already in the pipeline, given that AVAP has options on 30 or so aircraft.All IMHO, DYOR.
claude reins
17 Apr 2015
Re: Recent numbers Good analysis as always, Willow.Perhaps the FD who is appearing/presenting at the next Mello event in Peterborough 23/24 April will be able to support your analysis and confirm the way forward for this company. I saw him last at the Mello event in Nov last year in Derby. He was certainly bullish then and was clearly trying to woo institutional investors as well as the PIs like us. He talked of an eventual 300p SP if he could get the IIs on board. He seems to spend a lot of time over here these days, maybe based here now?In the meantime Hold for further information.
Willow67
16 Apr 2015
Recent numbers I was very bullish AVAP going into this year for reasons that have been regularly discussed on this bb - valuation, hidden value on b/s, diversification, falling finance costs, falling tax charge, clear pipeline, management skin in the game. I expected the shares to go through £2 quickly this year.There is definitely an argument that the results were presented badly and there are plenty of good things that have happened but not yet fed through to their financials, not least the reduction in the cost of debt, although personally i think the benefit there will be more like $1-1.5m pa not the $3.5m that has been mentioned. The jump in operating expenses seems linked to the depreciation charge, so of little real significance. Net net if you strip out $1m in financing, $1m in depreciation, $1.5m from the previous periods aircraft sales and accept the FD’s argument that HR expenses were lumpy this period vs prior then you can get to a point where the bottom line as a fair comparison to prior could be $3-4m higher and in fact showing growth well in excess of sales.At the end of the day it’s a super-levered business — LT liabilities are 3x total equity. The point of investing in these businesses is that they are meant to have fantastic operational leverage; each aircraft should lock in additional net earnings without additional non finance-related costs. They have not demonstrated that successfully yet in my view and that’s the challenge. I am holding but I would really like to see those admin costs steady, finance costs steady (i doubt they will fall as they are taking on new debt) and revenues growing, such that their cashflow generation improves significantly. They have leveraged up the balance sheet, now they need to show the benefit of doing that in the cashflow! The jury is out for now and the volatility and general performance of the shares shows that.
janebolacha
19 Mar 2015
Technical chart comment on AVAP At 09.00 in:[link]
janebolacha
23 Feb 2015
Four aircraft leased to Flybe, 2015 and 2016 [link]
claude reins
20 Feb 2015
Re: First impressions - catsick Well he spent the last quarter of last year around the UK, talking to anyone and everyone trying to drum up interest. I was at Mello in Nov and he got a very good reception for a good presentation. I guess he didnt achieve his other target of getting some of the funds interested though Hargreaves team was well represented there, including the great man himself - in a leg brace!
claude reins
20 Feb 2015
Re: Addendum to Paul Scott SCVR yesterda... Thanks for that.
a madase
20 Feb 2015
Re: First impressions - catsick "but when the price of fuel halves, which has the biggest possible boost to an industry, nobody really cares"---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- -One of the main reasons that airlines buy/lease new planes is because the newer the planes are, the more fuel efficient they are. If fuel prices are low then there's less of a reason/requirement for them to upgrade them.There's some extremely erudite posts appeared here since the results yesterday. It's a pity some of you weren't writing their interim management report. What has struck me is the laziness of the reporting from the company which certainly hasn't helped market sentiment. It's ok him putting his hand up and acknowledging that he could have done better but you have to ask yourself the question, what is the FD doing all day? I mean, $27m turnover, $7m profit......it's hardly Apple!
janebolacha
20 Feb 2015
Re: Addendum to Paul Scott SCVR yesterda... Here you go, Claude:"Corporate ContactJeff Chatfield, ChairmanEmail: [email protected] Wolanski, Finance DirectorEmail: [email protected] "
