Eadwig
18 Jul 2016
Re: Arguments against takeover Dave,As ARM management appear to have agreed to this takeover, then you can expect all sorts of statements like:a) Allows us greater investment that we could not raise ourselves.b) will double the workforce and mean more money for R&Dc) will allow us better access to certain foreign market opportunitiesd) presents opportunities in new sub-sectors that weren't easily open to us previouslye) will create synergies and savings that we can plough back into capital investmentetc etc etc (in case I've hit any spot on, I haven't actually read any detailed reports on the takeover, just headlines and one brief BBC report).
Eadwig
18 Jul 2016
Re: decided to sell half... Apostrophe,All patriotism aside, you own shares to make money for your future (presumably). If I were still holding ARM, I would very likely have made the same decision as you just have. There could be a belated blocking move on this takeover, in which case you can buy back in cheaper later. If it goes through at the current level (which i must say the media are reporting this as a done deal, as far as I have heard), then for the cost of some dealing charges, you just got half your cash several months ahead of time with which to invest elsewhere.Congrats on what I'm sure has been a profitable day for you. On an individual level, I wouldn't blame a single person for taking at least some profits. That means you too Rhigos. Think hard about it, my friend, you can't halt the future on your own, the only thing you can do as an individual is buffer yourself against it with as much wealth as possible. In my opinion, the stock market isn't a place to be making symbolic stands with your own money on the line - unless you are a billionaire, and I suspect you probably aren't.Congratulations to all who stayed with ARM over the years. I was frightened off a long time ago by the high P/E ratio. I was wrong.
DaveHughes
18 Jul 2016
Re: Arguments against takeover "I can only assume ARM management want a quick profit or feel that they cannot raise enough capital to grow ARM as fast as SoftBank can."ARM management do say that they need more support to fully exploit the opportunity of IOT etc., but don 't they have well over £600m of cash?
Eadwig
18 Jul 2016
Re: Sad day for UK industry terribletim, "How can UK build a decent tech sector when they keep get taken over by overseas cos "I'm afraid we're going to see a lot more of it with the weakened pound, likely to get weaker if the B. of E. threats to lower rates next month are taken seriously by the markets. Or if indeed they actually do go through with it.I'm not sure if a settled government might not have blocked this bid. Make no mistake, this is the jewel in the crown of a strategic industry going to another country - even if they intend to keep ARM based here and double jobs etc. Once sold, such decisions can soon be reversed by a private company especially in changing market conditions, if it can be justified to shareholders.In a post-Brexit future where our economy swims alone, UK PLC just sold out its leading light in a leading sector (20% of the S&P 500 is technology) to a leading competitor, Japan.
Rhigos
18 Jul 2016
Arguments against takeover Just reread my last post, in my haste several typos and mistakes. 2nd draft:"This is like someone coming a long and giving you 20 times the value of your house" No it is not. It is like a Japanese person buying your house for a 40% premium based on valuation in £, with Yen that have risen sharply in value against pound when house prices are going up 10% pa. Not a good deal IMO.In the last 5 years (since 17 Jul 2011) SP has gone up 110%. The devaluing of pound means that there is upward pressure on the SP. If there were no takeover the SP could easily go up 150% in the next 5 years. Institutional investors, with their short term view, will jump at a 40%+ premium but in the long term the takeover is bad for investors. Shareholders holder of ARM shares would have been off if it had remained independent. On the other hand SoftBank shareholders will do very well out of the deal over the next 5 years I predict, which is why SoftBank have made bid. I can only assume ARM management want a quick profit or feel that they cannot raise enough capital to grow ARM as fast as SoftBank can. The majority of future profits from ARM will go to Japan instead of UK which is bad for UK.
Rhigos
18 Jul 2016
Re: What chance a rival bid? nm "This is like someone coming a long and giving you 20 times the value of your house" No it is not. It is like a Japanese person buying your house for a 40% premium based on valuation in £, with Yen that have risen sharply in value against pound when house prices are going up 10% pa. Not a good deal IMO.In the last 5 years (since 17 Jul 2011) SP has gone up 110%. The devaluing of pound means SP, there were no takeover could easily go up 150% in the next 5 years. Institutional investors, with their short term view, will jump at a 40 odd percent premium but long term takeover is bad for investors. In the long term a holder of ARM shares would have been off if it had remained independent. SoftBank shareholders will do very well out of deal over the next 5 years I predict, which is why they have made bid. I can only assume ARM management want a quick profit or feel that they cannot raise enough capital to grow ARM as fast as SoftBank can. The majority of future profits from ARM will go to Japan instead of UK which is bad for UK.
terribletim
18 Jul 2016
Sad day for UK industry How can UK build a decent tech sector when they keep get taken over by overseas cos
Apostrophe
18 Jul 2016
decided to sell half... at 17.0006 or thereabouts.Thanks for all the points - I know it is very likely to go through, and waiting would have saved commission costs, but I think we've all been here before when sales didn't go through, and waiting was the wrong decision (RSA insurance for instance just a few months ago)So hedging my bets.....
MoleMan99
18 Jul 2016
Re: What chance a rival bid? nm None. Take it and run, laughing. This is like someone coming a long and giving you 20 times the value of your house, just because it is the best one in the street.Well done believers.
Rhigos
18 Jul 2016
Re: what to do? Sell or hold? "I am not surprised that ARM are being bought, I am surprised that the buyer is not Apple or Samsung - have I missed something?" good point NCMR.Makes argument for holding all the stronger, there could be a HIGHER COUNTER BID though I am not aware of Apple or Samsung being interested in chip design. Perhaps Intel though do not know if they could afford ARM and there would probably be objections regarding monopolies.
DaveHughes
18 Jul 2016
What chance a rival bid? nm ?
DaveHughes
18 Jul 2016
Re: what to do? Sell or hold? "I am surprised that the buyer is not Apple or Samsung - have I missed something?"It has always been the case that if one mobile manufacturer bought ARM then the other manufacturers would over time move their business elsewhere.
Rhigos
18 Jul 2016
Re: what to do? Sell or hold? Apostrophe,If you do not need money, from past experiences of takeovers, IMO you should hold. Just checked on sell price with my broker firm and it is 1706p so market is very certain deal will go ahead. If enough shareholders vote against it SoftBank might increase their offer. SP will stay close to offer price of 1700p unless there is any doubt about bid success or an increase in bid. There is a faint chance of government or EU objection that could prevent sale so I suppose selling now would avoid that risk but risk must be low or market would have made SP less than bid offer. Assuming you accept offer (if you hold in a nominee account, all ISA's are, then as recommended bid, your nominee will accept unless you ask them not to) then you will get offer price for shares and same yourself commission charge.
once a week
18 Jul 2016
Re: what to do? Sell or hold? I've just done the same. Sold half my holding just now.Been here before with Astra and a few others.
NCMR
18 Jul 2016
Re: what to do? Sell or hold? I am not surprised that ARM are being bought, I am surprised that the buyer is not Apple or Samsung - have I missed something?
