NerveWreck
12 Feb 2016
Re: Rig Cancellation Why no RNS from the company? It's pretty farkin material imho.
chopper1000
12 Feb 2016
Re: Rig Cancellation 2p anyone?
Frogga
12 Feb 2016
Rig Cancellation What happens now then ?
Captain Pedant
01 Feb 2016
A mixed blessing? It looks like the ER rig may be put out to grass early. I wonder what Noble will do? If they need to mobilise a rig to replace the ER I guess it would at least be nice and cheap now and they may want a pop at more than Rhea?If they don't I wonder where we stand with our commitment to the Falkland Islands government to drill this year?Hmm.
Captain Pedant
14 Jan 2016
Re: RKH vs ARG Nice post by the way. £1.50 a share heh? I feel uncomfortable seeing my name all over the board when I don't really have too much to say so I'll look in after my family skiing trip. I look forward to seeing a few other Falkland's posters chipping in the run-up to Rhea. Marlon?Good luck one and all.
iiTown
14 Jan 2016
Re: RKH vs ARG Okay. Yes the boards are a lot calmer over here!
Captain Pedant
14 Jan 2016
Re: RKH vs ARG No not the same. Can you believe those fanatics on the LSE MMX board got me banned for telling the rampers to calm down a bit? Two years on and look at the share price. He who laughs last? The only problem is the can't hear me as I'm banned! Still it's better for my blood pressure.
iiTown
14 Jan 2016
Re: RKH vs ARG Sorry, I said Tuggy as I am also used to reading the LSE site. Are you one and the same Captain Pedant ?
iiTown
14 Jan 2016
RKH vs ARG So say at $65 per barrel, RKH say they are hoping for circa $220 million per quarter from Sea Lion. But there is the Guarantee Fee of $16 million per quarter, the 15% interest on the $750 million from PMO which could be circa $40 million per quarter (amortised over 20 years). That brings it down to $164 million per quarter. What would the Opex costs be?ARG. it's a big if, but assuming a similar sized and operated field as above and Noble go into production. 85,000 barrels a day at 5% gives 4,250 bpd or 395,000 per quarter. At $65 per barrel that would produce $26 million per quarter. Around a 6 to 1 ratio with RKH.Both have risks, ARG the most, so the current 10 to 1 market cap. ratio looks fair to me.If ARG were receiving $100 million per year, after tax that would be around $70 million. At P/E of 7 say, so $490 million market cap = £339 million or £1.50 per share. Dividend of 21p per share.I guess both could have upside on production and who knows what the oil price will be. I hope you will be smiling while Skiing Tuggy.
Captain Pedant
14 Jan 2016
Re: Sealion and $200m gross/year First off please believe me when I say I really know very little about oil exploration. I only posted on the Argos board because I can't believe the discrepancy between the interest and posts on the Rockhopper board and the amost complete silence on the Argos board. They're adjacent areas which in all probability hold similar amounts of oil. Is their any significant geological difference between them? The only real difference is that Rockhopper started their journey several years ago and share price wise it's largely been down hill since. The Argos share price is also at an all time low despite:Being one month before Noble plans to drill it's first well targeting multiple targets (see Argos web site Rhea Stack CPR).Noble has the resources and expertise to develop any finds even in the current oil environment (I think the Rockhopper board would value that).Argos has negotiated a very good deal where it receives 5% of all revenue generated from Oil/Gas sales. It has minimal overheads and will make good money regardless of the price of oil and how many companies can say that? If the price of oil stayed low it's possible Noble might lose money (in theory anyway). Not so Argos. The higher the price of oil though the more it stands to make. Rockhopper have just effectively agreed to re-negotiate their farm-out agreement to help to facilitate Premier sanctioning FID. That may turn out to be a moving target in the current POO environment. Who knows?Argos have loads of other prospects on their acreage, several of them neatly piled one on top of the other to make it easier for Noble to find oil. If Rhea should be dry will Noble decide to try another dirll before returning the rig. I'd be surprised if they didn't. Otherwise they've spent a lot of time and money finding a whole load of nothing.Looking at the big picture Rockhopper have oil that they can't affort to get out of the ground with a partner who are currently in some difficulties.Argos have yet to find oil but have a partner who would make field development look like a walk in the park compared to Rockhopper.It all comes down to whether you think the Argos acreage contains oil and if Noble are commited to finding it. I do. So I'm invested.One thing's for certain. If Noble find oil and develop it I'll be rich (at some point in the next 5-10 years). Perhaps I'll know by the time I go skiing at Easter? Now that's a nice thought! The same probably applies to Rockhopper but is it 100% they won't need to find another farm-in partner? What will the POO be then? Will they end up with less? Might they need a right's issue at some point? Probably not but....
Sadaat
14 Jan 2016
Re: Sealion and $200m gross/year Captain;How much risk is with Rhea?Personally I believe upside potential is huge, with NPV of 450 mbbls recoverable oil is 104p/share net to Argos (From Argos Presentation) without any dilution.With CoS 38% I term Rhea is medium risk, but based on overall result ration in NFB, is CoS is better than 38%?What will be realistic target price on discovery?
Captain Pedant
13 Jan 2016
Re: Sealion and $200m gross/year Of course it follows from your excellent point that if the Rhea stack turns out to be of similar size to Sealion that Argos would expect to receive a check from Noble once a QUARTER from Noble for $10,000,000, so $40,000,000 per year without having to do anything except not spend too much on admin and custard creams and making sure the Barclay's current account doesn't go overdrawn. And a Market Cap of £15m! And in the dream like senario that sends me to sleep most nights I try to imagine how many potential targets Argos (Noble) has sitting quietly under the sea waiting to be found, and how many are continuous? 2? 3? 10?How often do you see the potential returns that this might give for so little risk (in oil exploration terms)? Not often. Get in quick and make sure it's in an ISA.As always time will tell.
Captain Pedant
13 Jan 2016
Re: Sealion and $200m gross/year I can barely read never mind speed read (and please don't mention the spelling).Thanks for that. Is it just me with Argos Resources? I'm in Rockhopper and expect them to do very well by 2020 but Premier Oil may not actually make it that far if oil stays down at these levels too long. Rockhopper will be fine I think, lots of cash and income generating wells coming but the wait, oh the wait!This is now! Huge field, lots of oil, commited American partner with lots of North American shale fields that's looking to diversify.And the boards? Tumbleweed city!Still I'm backing myself on this one and hope to do well, even at $30/barrel and there aren't many places at the moment where that might happen.Good luck.
Robpug_uk
13 Jan 2016
Re: Sealion and $200m gross/year Captain Pedant, dunno if you speed read that bit, but its actually $200 million per quarter... so rocky would be getting $800 million per year revenue at 85k barrels a day @ $65 oil ..."Rockhopper's share of projected quarterly gross revenue at oil prices... "
Captain Pedant
13 Jan 2016
Sealion and $200m gross/year I notice in Rockhopper's RNS today that at $65 per barrel they project a gross annual profit of $200,000,000 from the Sealion field. Of course Isobel and phases two/three and all the others in due course will increase this significantly. This figure is also calculated on conservative volumes of oil in place which will almost certainly increase (further CPR en-route).And Argos? The NFB is full of oil. Even if Noble find only ONE Sealion look-alike in ALL their acreage the annual take for Argos would be 5% of the GROSS profit ie $10m per year for the life of the field. Current Market Cap: £15m. Not a bad punt in today's market. This might come as early as Rhea? And as a bonus there wouldn't be the high levels of uncertainty with Noble that dear old Premier Oil are causing at the moment. And of course Argos has lots and lots of other targets and has stated it's intention to consider aquiring more acreage as and when it becomes available.A good punt today and longer term the upside is huge. It's like the early days of Desire/Rockhopper again. Only this time we already know the oil is there you just have to be a little more competent at looking for it than Desire were. And all those years ago Desire's Market Cap was what at it's peak? With no oil (well for one weekend!) and no partner/finacial backing.Argos - always the dark horse of the north basin. It's in the right basin (NOT south), with the right partner at the right time.Patience will be rewarded in these uncertain times.
