The_buzz
01 Aug 2018
Top Up Time Again apologies as a bit a bit slow off the mark. This is the update for Narrabri and explains why coal production there was lower than before as outlined in the APF statement, however things should be much better in September. clients3.weblink.com.au 01999660.pdf 462.25 KB Narrabri “ROM coal production for the June quarter was 1.190Mt, down 29% on the previous corresponding period. Saleable coal production for the quarter was 0.878Mt and coal sales were 0.800Mt for the quarter. Full year ROM coal production of 6.289Mt was 13% lower than the previous year. Saleable coal production was 5.840Mt, 16% lower than the previous year and coal sales for the year were 5.760Mt. ROM coal production at Narrabri in the June quarter and second half of FY2018 was impacted by a series of longwall face mechanical issues and by localised weighting events. These factors combined to slow the rate of longwall retreat and have delayed the commencement of the longwall changeout, previously scheduled to occur prior to the end of FY2018. The changeout into longwall panel LW108, the next panel, will commence in July and longwall production is expected to recommence in September. Installation of the accelerated secondary support regime has progressed ahead of schedule in the panel gates roads and in the mains development roadways. Roadway development for the June quarter and full year was 4,579 metres and 17,145 metres respectively.†NB There is a very long informative section on the outlook. It is very positive for thermal coal and optimistic for coking coal. Th Buzz
The_buzz
01 Aug 2018
Top Up Time I think in the confusion of he iii self destruct change, I did not post this link for the Ovana gold production showing an 11% increase in output in Q3 orvana.com Orvana Reports Third Quarter Record Gold Production is pleased to provide production results for its Spanish and Bolivian operations for the third quarter of fiscal 2018 (" Q3 2018 "), featuring consolidated gold production of 26,761 ounces, an 8% increase in production compared to the previous... I am possibly looking really too close to the ground perhaps, but the price of coal seems to have bounced a bit yesterday. It will be interesting to see if the coal price firms up. That said there are some in the industry who predict a softening of prices:- [link] but at the moment things are looking better:- [link] The Buzz
The_buzz
31 Jul 2018
Top Up Time I have decided that the share price had fallen too much so I have used some of my reserve cash to top up with 4508 shares at 133.7p. The dividend is so much better than my useless bank account’s 1% interest rate. Just looking at the share price chart I have decided that it is probably at a support level now. With early signs of an improving steel market I am hopeful of at least holding and preferably better a rising price for coking coal. cmegroup.com Australian Coking Coal (Platts) Low Vol Futures Quotes - CME Group Find information for Australian Coking Coal (Platts) Low Vol Futures Quotes provided by CME Group. View Quotes With thermal coal still giving a good price:- Barchart.com ICE NewCastle Coal Aug '18 (LQQ18) Futures Price Quote - Barchart.com Free futures price quote for LQQ18. Latest real-time Bats price quote, charts, financials, technicals and opinions. In some respects it is a one way bet, but no guarantees. I suspect a stronger coking coal price will reinvigorate APF - but I could be wrong again - I have already topped up at higher levels! However, the dividend return is very attractive and I do not see much further capital downside at the moment. Hooray some buying support and the buy price has moved to 134p, in fact one transaction just went through at 134.97p. Spread 133-134p. The Buzz
The_buzz
31 Jul 2018
Good interview with Julian Treger Accidentally initially posted on HUM page:- Hi TP, Open draft to create a new topic. What’s more the bug that locked me out seems to have been fixed!! Re half year trading report was so near my previously expressed expectations that it was hardly worth commenting on. Technical issues at Narrabri were mentioned - although I had thought that they had been resolved? A good strong royalty from Kestrel - although I had remarked that the current price of coking coal at around $180/mt is a bit lower than the $200/mt previously obtained. That said there is tentative signs that the price has bottomed with the price Chinese rebar (steel) rising:- [link] 1 I was going to have a chat with APF about Pilbara as I sent APF an update on RTZ’s huge investment plans and wanted to know how it affected APF. APF have ssince updated there description on the Pilbara iron ore deposit. When RTZ finally gets to APF’s royalty zone, the mine will be massive. It is probably a little too far away for most investors’ horizon, but i should be a major royalty once it gets going. Vanadium and nickel are still looking good. Uranium seems to have gone into a quiescent state and bottomed out in price. Yes there are lots of opportunities out there - (probably the best are in coal as no one wants to invest for environmental reasons and yet the price of thermal coal will be strong for some time to come). Even HUM has had a dabble as just lending he money gives a big yield with the prospect of a high royalty return later was just too tempting for them. Talking of HUM to my surprise the share price is in the doldrums at 30.25p a share. I have a big investment here so I am really puzzled as to why there is selling after their good Q2 report - but at least there is a big investor their just soaking up all the sales at 30p. HUM have an interest in Cora Gold that has been having some very good drill results near the existing HUM mine. The expectation is that once HUM has a stache of cash it will be in a better position to develop Dugbe - perhaps with a partner. Then finally APF will get a royalty - but not in the near fuure as the price of gold has fallen back to around $1220/oz. That said there is an awful lot of speculation that gold has been heavily oversold. To summarise, APF is getting lots of cash in. It is paying a handsome dividend. The future royalty stream looks fairly solid and with talk of doubling Kestrel output - that will significantly boost conversion of royalty asset to cash and release lots of cash for acquisitions. I wonder for how long this prediction will hold?? The Buzz
Tony_Proudfoot
30 Jul 2018
Good interview with Julian Treger Does anyone know how to start a new topic on this board?
Tony_Proudfoot
30 Jul 2018
Good interview with Julian Treger Everyone seems to have missed the half year results?
reevesfamily4224
30 Jul 2018
Good interview with Julian Treger Hi Buzz, good points all. A director at the agm told me they had looked at just over 100 opportunities last year. They seem to be clever at buying into new opportunities when the prices of such materials are not inflated.
The_buzz
26 Jul 2018
Good interview with Julian Treger Glad some of my info useful. I know that they are actively searching for new opportunities but there seem to be so many that they are spoilt for choice. In the mean time cobalt seems to getting some attention:- BBC News The precious metal sparking a new gold rush The race to find new sources of cobalt - the key component in smartphone and electric car batteries. There are of course existing options with the Brazilian nickel royalty and that could consume large amounts of cash. The proposed accelerated production at Kestrel will be very good news as the investment can be switched to new royalties faster than previously expected. My main concern at the moment is coking coal - the price is at a historically good price, but at around $175 is lower than I want it to be after recent highs and strong Chinese demand:- cmegroup.com Australian Coking Coal (Platts) Low Vol Futures Quotes - CME Group Find information for Australian Coking Coal (Platts) Low Vol Futures Quotes provided by CME Group. View Quotes I suspect Trump’s sanctions are messing the market up and assuming that things are resolved, one might anticipate that the demand for coking coal will improve. Note here is a very strong underpin to thecoking coal price by the very strong thermal coal prices:- Barchart.com ICE NewCastle Coal Apr '18 (LQJ18) Futures Price Quote - Barchart.com Free futures price quote for LQJ18. Latest real-time Bats price quote, charts, financials, technicals and opinions. The Buzz
reevesfamily4224
25 Jul 2018
Good interview with Julian Treger HI Buzz, thanks for interesting and positive posts. One thing I am surprised about though is JT was very bullish about regular new investments and yet no announcements. Presumably the cash pile is still building so the new deals could be bigger… and more lucrative. Any thoughts on what is holding back new deals ? Steve
The_buzz
24 Jul 2018
Good interview with Julian Treger Apologies for ragged input. The super new comment section locked up on me yet again!! The India coal demand has a lot of Australian input and looks to be there for quite a while and should hold up the price obtained obtained by Narrabri. Vanadium now showns as $19.35/lb [link]
The_buzz
24 Jul 2018
Good interview with Julian Treger Bought anther 4k today. Weak £, Chines announce a big boost to infrastructure spending nd vanadium going from strength to strength. I noticed an update to the APF web site on royalties. I liked the update to the Pilbaro royalty - that could be a majoe earner once brought onto stream:- [link] Plus India has major U.K. – 24 Jul 18 India's thermal coal imports rise over 14 pct in Q2 - trader India's thermal coal imports rose by more than 14 percent in the second quarter of 2018 from a year earlier, putting the energy-hungry nation on track for a rise in annual imports after two straight years of decline.
The_buzz
20 Jul 2018
Largo to Boost Production!!! Note says price $17/lb Current price now $19.15/lb [link]
The_buzz
17 Jul 2018
Largo to Boost Production!!! Another great earnings update on vanadium from Largo largoresources.com Largo Resources Provides Guidance on Second Quarter 2018 Revenue and Announces... Largo Resources Ltd. (" Largo " or the " Company ") (TSX: LGO) (OTCQX: LGORF) is pleased to provide guidance on its expected revenue for the three month period ending June 30, 2018 anticipating revenue of between CDN$99 million and CDN$107 million, a... This should be a good little earner with a 2% NSR royalty. Not sure what the text means about royalty payments, as far as I can make out APF have this fixed rate. The Buzz
The_buzz
11 Jul 2018
Largo to Boost Production!!! Another good set of result from Largo:- largoresources.com Largo Resources Reports Second Quarter 2018 Production Results Total production of 2,458 tonnes of V2O5 in Q2 2018, a 13% increase over Q2 2017 and a 11% increase over Q1 2018 New average daily production record for June of 29.4 tonnes of V2O5 produced per day Overall V2O5 recovery rate of 79.2% achieved in Q2... “Total production from the Maracás Menchen Mine in the second quarter of 2018 was 2,458 tonnes of V2O5 representing a 13% increase over Q2 2017 and an 11% increase over Q1 2018. Overall V2O5 recovery rates for Q2 2018 averaged 79.2%, which represents an increase of 6.6% against Q2 2017, and an increase of 4.3% against Q1 2018. The Company is very pleased to report it has achieved a new daily average production record for the month of June with 29.4 tonnes of V2O5 produced per day. Total concentrate produced in Q2 2018 was 85,639 tonnes compared to 88,186 in Q2 2017 representing a decrease of 2.9%.†and look at the record prices being obtained:- "Mr. Smith continued: “V2O5 prices continued to edge higher with the latest European Metal Bulletin price range posted during the week of July 6 being US$18.50-$19.00/lb,which puts us in a good starting position for the third quarter. Management continues to remain very optimistic for the year ahead as the Company begins the construction phase of the Maracás Menchen Mine expansion plan which will see capacity increase at the mine from a total of 800 tonnes produced per month of V2O5 to 1,000. We look forward to providing the market with updates as the expansion plan construction commences.†Increasing production, better recovery rates and higher prices. Everything seems to be going very well! The Buzz
The_buzz
10 Jul 2018
Good to interview with Julian Treger Wow good spot!! The increase in production will radically increase revenue AND increase the rate of transition from a high dependence on the coking coal royalty to other royalties as the higher royalty stream is invested. This should make APF much more investable as it will have less dominance on a single royalty source - and become much more diversified. It was only yesterday that I topped up - and now feel even more vindicated. Having just made a very quick useful profit with PFD - dare I top up any more?? The Buzz
