Tony Proudfoot
06 Mar 2018
Share price & volume I have been watching this over the past few weeks.First one does despair at iii's system as at this moment (10.22) it shows a throuput so far of 136,617 whereas its summary is only showing 45717 - the difference being two transactions of 45,500. If anyone can make head or tail of this please enlighten me.Secondly, the share price is strenghening as I do think we have a nibbler out there quietly building a position.
The buzz
05 Mar 2018
V2O% Important Largo News Release [link] of facts here. Mainly because of their high quality ore, V2O5 powder is now being produced increasing their market reach.Largo is being qualified to supply more and more consumers - including battery manufacturers. Glencore will organise the sales of V2O5 powder as well as continuing with the sales of V2O5 flakeProduction of 706t in January and 645t in February - lower than the nameplate capacity due to scheduled maintenance. March onwards should be ~800t until July for a 7 day factory close down for some more scheduled maintenance.Update on prices - along the lines that we know ready - but just shows how the prices are improving:-"The London Metal Bulletin price for V2O5 as at March 2, 2018 was trading in the range of US$14.00 to US$14.50 per pound of V2O5. This level increased from the December 31, 2017 price range of US$9.60 to US$9.90 per pound of V2O5."The B
Dusty42
01 Mar 2018
Met coal outlook remains positive Still somewhat unclear on exactly how the realised price by Rio is impacted by spot prices, but impression is there is a bit of a lag in short term rises or falls making it into the period contracts. I think q1/q2 will be good for apf with regard to met coal at least - and mostly everything else is looking pretty robust price wise."Seaborne coking coal prices rose on Wednesday February 28, with Chinese buyers flagging limited offers of such materials and an unclear outlook for domestic supply as factors generating buying interest."Final dividend next month to look forward to and news of further investments due any time(though I've been thinking that for a couple of months now!).[link]
The buzz
28 Feb 2018
Narrabri Whitehaven Coal has just published a presentation that includes reference to Narrabri, in particular pages 16 and 17:-[link] is projected that FY 2018 will have production of 6.0-6.5mtFY 2019 7.7mtFY 2020 7.0mtIn the mean time I notice that this vanadium price web site is at last showing the increase in prices reported earlier (China $13.3/lb, Europe $12.85/lb):-[link] price holding up well ( a very volatile chart but currently shows about $13,800/ton):-[link] 0The B
Dusty42
21 Feb 2018
Storms, temp rail disruption Only temporary, but adds to the tightening of supply no doubt.[link]
The buzz
21 Feb 2018
Re: Met coal futures strengthening It's the same old story - demand continues to increase with China and India the key players - with India likely to be buying more coking coal in the future:-[link] is strting to get desperate to secure coal supplies and the outlook for coking coal prices is making it difficult for them to buy into Australian cola mines:-[link] expert suggested that since coking coal prices are firming up globally, potential sellers are anticipating better valuation of the assets, which in turn is resulting in delays in signing a procurement agreement. According to US investment bank Seaport Global, the benchmark coking coal contract pricing forecast for 2018 has been upped to $170 per tonne from the earlier estimate of $150 per tonne.It expects the prices in early 2018 to hover around $220-$230 per tonne....."The B
Dusty42
21 Feb 2018
Re: Met coal futures strengthening Still creeping up, q118 looking quite good, lots of talk of robust steel demand:[link]
Dusty42
19 Feb 2018
Re: The Iron Lady is Going Hi buzz, thanks for the HUM links. I hadn't spotted the update. As you say they seem to be doing alright on the production side and the most important variable(gold price) is in a nice place currently. The podcast was interesting. Presumably if they put their mind to it and the POG stayed were it is they could be debt free in 18 months?
The buzz
19 Feb 2018
Whitehave H1 FY2018 Report [link] this web page:-[link] statement:-" ROM coal production for the first half was 3.9Mt. Saleable coal production for the first half was 3.8Mt and coal sales were 3.8Mt, each modestly lower than the pcp. Coal production at Narrabri during the first half was impacted by a slower mining rate through the fault zone in the September quarter while changing roof conditions in the December quarter accelerated the need for secondary roof support to be installedahead of previous plans. During the December quarter labour was diverted from production to install additional secondary support leading to a reduction in longwall production. The changed roof conditions are due to the increasing depth of cover atthe mine. Following the success of mining through the fault in longwall panel LW107, plans have been developed to mine through the fault zone in panels LW108 and LW109. Relative to previous guidance, mining through this zone will reduce costs in both FY2019 and FY2020 and result in increased ROM coal production of 0.3Mt in each year. Production guidance for Narrabri for FY2018 is in the range of 6.0Mt and 6.5Mt ROM coal."Much of this statement has already been reported before. My interpretation of this is that Narrabri production in FY 2018 will be on the low side, but will be better in FY2019 and FY2020 once they have mined through panels LW108 and LW109.The rest of the market seems to be sleeping for the Chinese New Year.The B
The buzz
17 Feb 2018
The Iron Lady is Going So Rachel Rhodes is going. She used to be FD of the now defunct London Mining, but skipped ship just before the collapse of iron ore. She once remarked that in negotiations with the Sierra Leone Government the ministers referred to her as the "Iron Lady" I met her at a recent APF AGM and said "Hullo, you must be the Iron Lady!" - which she found very amusing and remarked about it when each of the directors had to do an imprompto talk in the formal meeting!Clearly a competent person. Clearly experienced with iron ore, but that is not the direction that APF is heading. JT told me that he was more interested in the likes of copper, vanadium etc. As an aside I said that it was perhaps the wrong side of the commodity cycle to buy more royalties - but he disagreed as he considered that the opportunities were still competitively priced.Back at the mill, Dusty42 did you see HUM's announcement about the production update at its mali mine:-[link] bit of discussion is taking place on the HUM bb as one interpretation is that the Yanifolila mine is owned by a separate company (80% owned by HUM) that could be stuffed with IOU's to get the mine operating. So the next 3 (say) years could have all the gold sale proceeds going to HUM to pay off the loans before the shareholders get a dividend. That aside the money is now pouring into the coffers. In the web cast the CEO of HUM said that if the share price does not move he might start using some of this cash to buy back some shares (the speel starts just over 1min 30s into the podcast)! [link] terms of APF - HUM are rightfully driving down debt with 15% of the cash going to Mali exploration to extend the life of the mine. Once the debt has been reduced and the Mali mine's life extended, I would anticipate some movement on Dugbe, even if it is only exploring some of the targets identified by aerial surveys and refining the cost of building a mine at Dugbe. The recent strength in the price of gold is starting to make this mine look progressively more attractive.As for coking coal - I would not expect anything meaningful during the Chinese New Year celebrationsThe B
The buzz
15 Feb 2018
Vanadium VRBs [link] optimistic note about using vanadium for power storage.Lithium ion is not good, apart from a propensity to catch fire, loses its charge capacity (as we all know!) over time."Lithium has been the most relevant energy metal over the past few years.In recent months, cobalt has become the energy metal favoured by investors.The demand for both of these metals is set to increase rapidly as demand for lithium-ion batteries continues to grow. But the energy metal with the biggest upside right now is one you might not associate with energy, or even know: vanadium."APF has exposure to vanadium via Maracás Menchen.[link] note ends saying:-"With no direct investment access, investors must look to companies that mine vanadium or those that are manufacturing VRBs or developing VRB technology.We are currently investigating several vanadium and VRB companies and plan to bring you some new ideas soon. Stay tuned."...... Or buy a share that has a royalty from vanadium!The B
Dusty42
15 Feb 2018
Met coal futures strengthening March prices now higher than febuary, keeping over $200/mt until august. I reckon the first three months of this year(assuming amount produced is equal) could likely beat the last 3 months of last year in terms of income for apf.[link]
Dusty42
15 Feb 2018
Indian Demand [link]
Dusty42
14 Feb 2018
Supply concerns persist.. '“This is no different to a cyclone event,” a supplier source said.'[link]
Dusty42
14 Feb 2018
BKY article Lot at stake here for apf will a royalty and a still large equity holding.[link]
