IAmShareCrazy
27 Aug 2017
Re: in the spin drier I am expecting a crash anytime soon. There was a sell off a few weeks ago according to the charts. Hopefully as I opened a short!
kryptes
23 Aug 2017
in the spin drier .
kryptes
26 Jul 2017
Re: Trading Statement If you base your conclusion that a company "could be a good recovery play" based upon what that company says then every struggling company fits that description. And AO spins more than most, as many have noted. You have to do some of your own analysis and thinking and not swallow PR spin.As for AO being "EBITDA positive" in the UK, so what? It is and has always been loss making. And where does the money come from to pay the ITDA bit do you think? Debt has to be serviced. Equipment has to be paid for (especially in a technology reliant company like AO).And I don't agree that they can make a profit shifting big white appliances. The margins are too low and the infrastructure costs are too high for it to generate any earnings from supplying goods, which is why it is entirely reliant on selling insurance policies AND why it refuses to provide a revenue breakdown between the two.AO has a business model which will fail. And if you don't agree, that's up to you but face facts: it has utterly failed to date, so why should that suddenly change?
II Editor
25 Jul 2017
NEW ARTICLE: How far will this small-cap struggler fall? "AO World (LSE:AO.)LSE:AO.:AO World was one of our possible ISA contenders but unfortunately the share price has failed to make the break above the blue line into safer territory.Worse, the share has now achieved a series of lower lows, making us ..."[link]
II Editor
24 Jul 2017
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 25/07/2017 " AO WORLD (LSE:AO.)Â This was one of our possible ISA contenders but unfortunately the share price has failed to make the break above BLUE into safer territory. Worse, the share has now achieved a series of lower lows, making us wonder whether ..."[link]
TradedOption
24 Jul 2017
Re: Trading Statement T_D,It depends what you mean by flawed. It's not that you can't make money flogging washing machines and tellies. The question is whether you can make enough to justify your valuation.Dixons Carphone are trading on a PE of just under 11. For AO to equal that PE they would need at the current valuation of have earnings of £50m a year (or if you're a real optimist, based on their flotation price, earnings of £125m). They currently don't make a penny of profit, although to be fair UK EBITDA was approx. £25m last year but those earnings were wiped out by a corresponding loss in Europe. Let's assume Europe pulls round by a net £50m and can contribute another £25 million EBITDA. That gets you your current valuation - just. But that only gets us to where we are now in terms of share price and who can say when or if European profitability will come to the rescue. I'd want to see some very clear signs of revenue increases delivering profit before even considering this as a recovery play.Also, as other posters have mentioned, there could be real regulatory risk around warranty sales and AO are not sufficiently clear on the financial contribution of this income stream to comfort me on this.Cheers
T-D
24 Jul 2017
Re: Trading Statement After listening to the recent meting to the market, it tells be this could be a good recovery play. AO certainly don't think its a flawed model. I'm not invested here but keeping a close eye.
kryptes
23 Jul 2017
Re: Trading Statement Think you're wrong - look at the analysts' research notes. Margin on white goods (after costs) is negative in all their models. AO makes its money - to the extent it makes any - on warranty policies. It's a flawed model.If you don't believe that, take a look at the share price - what does that tell you?
T-D
22 Jul 2017
Re: Trading Statement AO doesn't make a loss on all its items! Price matches it will do, but it has a margin on all items sold.Next round of advertising coming up will merely add to the 4 million happy customers already looking nowhere else but to AO, for their white goods, and a growing array of other products. AO lets go!
kryptes
22 Jul 2017
Re: Trading Statement AO makes a loss on the items it sells but hopes to make a profit from selling warranty insurance. Refuses to disclose split in revenues between the two which says a lot.A good example of how a company can get away with promising 'jam tomorrow' for quite a while before people wake up and realise it's merde sandwiches all round for share holders.
TradedOption
21 Jul 2017
Trading Statement So, UK sales growth is stalling, EU growth continues to look impressive but is probably just a reflection of it's low starting base. Profitability capable of underpinning the astronomical PE looks as elusive as ever. They may have happy customers but that happiness is clearly coming at a big cost to the bottom line. TO
IAmShareCrazy
14 Jul 2017
Re: How's it shaping up in 2017? 1-32p target?I did have a short at one point but ran out of patience. Not sure if any company will allow short postions now
kryptes
14 Jul 2017
Re: How's it shaping up in 2017? diving
kryptes
06 Jul 2017
Re: How's it shaping up in 2017? Yeah, yeah. Always buying when it's down, selling at it's peak. If only we all could be as smart as you. LOL.
Ripley94
13 Jun 2017
Re: How's it shaping up in 2017? As you know well i'm in and out of that one buying the dips as you slag .. thanks for all the lunches... lol
