gamesinvestor
11 Jul 2017
APH Winning -- just had a look at APH. Interesting company that's built up quite a portfolio of niche prescription drugs in various areas of medical need.What's a little diconcerting is to why so many are selling significant chunks of shares :-[link] - Top sliced AMS and applied cash to a non medical company
gamesinvestor
11 Jul 2017
Re: Price ""The valuation is lofty, I agree, but there are few Companiesas sound as AMS""Winning I don't doubt what you say for a minute, but look at the analysis from Phil Oakley to emphasise the point. Good companies often remain good companies, but the article illustrates that they may not be good investments going forward if you are starting from a very high multiple.The article illustrates how comparing Fevertree with an expected 15-20% annual growth rate, something that will become more difficult as they grow, to a 3% growth rate company (Britvic) on a much lower starting multiple. The effects over 10 years are startling and not obvious without looking at the analysis.AMS is on a 10-12% growth rate and even maintaining that could lead to quite modest returns over 10 years (assuming they are not bought out) compared to a less aggressively priced and even lower growth company.I'll certainly take a look at APH - thxGames
winningstreak
10 Jul 2017
Re: Price Games - The valuation is lofty, I agree, but there are few Companiesas sound as AMS, and should there come an economic recessionthen AMS will continue to thrive as plasters and sutures are unlikely togo out of fashion.If you feel uncomfortable, why not sell half your holding and invest theproceeds in APH, where the valuation is low, and where trade is alsonear recession proof.IMHO,Cheers,ws
gamesinvestor
10 Jul 2017
Price Is it just me, or I am right in thinking this is now so overbought?In 2012 AMS had revenues of £52M and pre-tax profits of £10.8MIn 2016 AMS had revenues of 82.6M and pre-tax profits of £19.1MThat's a lift in revenue of 59% and profits of 77% -- pretty impressiveHowever the P/E back in 2012 was 11.9 and the PEG was 0.5 because the growth rate was 24% in earnings. In 2016 that P/E jumped 28.6 and it's about 33 today - almost triple the valuation for a less than doubling of business, and the PEG is 2.5 (3.3 into 2017) due to growth rates slowing to 12% and 10% respectivelyif you take a look at this article by Phil Oakley it draws up a comparison between Fevertree and Britvic and shows the effects of the two companies on vastly different valuations and with vastly different growth rates -- the results you might find astonishing :-[link] drinks have precious little to do with AMS, but it serves as an example on what to expect from the next 10 years in terms of returns when starting from such a lofty valuation.I love AMS and I'm more than 100% up but is it realistic to expect anything other than mediocre returns from hereonin when starting from the current lofty valuation, even if the company continues to grow at 10% a year -- which is about the level it's achieving.If the company starts to miss any of these expectations, the downside could be considerable.Considering my position here at 3.5% of my wad.Comments?Games
BigBobby20
05 Jul 2017
Re: Trading update Full and half year reports and most other trading updates have to do with what is being made and sold, with developments relating thereto (including growth, market share, profits). They also offer a forecast of future trends. They do not, however, report on the ups and downs of the SP; that's what analysts, discussion boards and chartist commentators in particular are there for.If you track back through posts here over the last year, you will find some spot on readings of the trend lines and the likely trajectory of the SP--both up and down. Share prices go zig, but then they go zag, to the bemusement and sometimes the consternation of many investors. 'Twas ever thus. Seeing what is coming allows some to unload and buy back at a lower price. Others who hold fast look for steep falls to give opportunities for a top up on the cheap. This particular correction is long overdue but has very little to do with the fortunes of the company itself. BB20
Why nicknames
04 Jul 2017
Re: Trading update But 'in line with expectation' = drop in share price?
BigBobby20
04 Jul 2017
Trading update In today's trading update for the half year (Jan. to June), CEO Chris Meredith talks of "ongoing strong progress" and trading "on track for the full year". The Board is focused on organic growth, in part through innovation, but there is a mention also of possible growth through acquisition.A fuller picture will emerge on Sept. 13. Upwards and onwards..BB20
23Jez
27 Jun 2017
Re: Steep rise... How about a fall in the value of the pound?
winningstreak
22 Jun 2017
Re: Steep rise... Sorry, typo error in my last message, for 14.5p read 15.5p. w.s.
winningstreak
22 Jun 2017
Re: Steep rise... As I said in my earlier post today, I sold in part.I put the proceeds on INSE (paid 14.5p) where I feel further rises are warranted (based on strong fundamentals).We'll see how it goes.Cheers,ws
winningstreak
22 Jun 2017
Re: Steep rise... Not amusing, just realistic, my view remains unchanged from whenI first commented on the share price having gone rather high.ws
Cantseethewoodsforthetrees
22 Jun 2017
Re: Steep rise... Winningstreak,No offence, but your posts since April do make amusing reading!SP 'over the top', at £2.70 and 'frothy' ever since....Agreed the sp looks to have got ahead of itself recently, but perhaps there's something coming, so far unannounced, that a few 'in the know' are taking advantage of?
winningstreak
22 Jun 2017
Steep rise... Share price up by almost 40% since March, that is a steep rise, indeed perhaps too steep to last as there has been no news from the Company to justify such a rise. Rather frothy at above300p I would say. I have taken some profits.IMHO,ws
Cantseethewoodsforthetrees
21 Jun 2017
Re: The magic milestone. Looking at the trade 'type' since Friday, there's been no 'O' trades, only 'ATs'.V unusual for AMS.SP move driven by institutions?
BigBobby20
20 Jun 2017
The magic milestone. Well, we made it to the magic milestone (also got there briefly intraday yesterday). My forecast in March of this year ("I would be surprised if we do not see 300p by the New Year"was evidently way out with regard to the target date but at least on the money in terms of the SP growth projected. And just to think, back in February, we were more than100p away from today's close. What a share!Where we go next is anybody's guess. It would help us to know how well AMS has done in the half year just ending. And is there a stake builder quietly at work in the wings? It will not surprise me to see the SP now pause for breath. Nor to see a retracement of perhaps 25p-30p. Time for a celebratory drink, I would say.BB20
