BigBobby20
15 Nov 2016
Into forward gear? SP dipped a penny or two lower than the support levels that I expected to come into play but it seems that profit taking may now have died away and that we shall not be testing the 200 day moving average (circa 203p). With Christmas and New Year not so far off, perhaps the likely Santa rally is beginning to be part of current thinking and starting to draw in buyers who will be looking for a 10% uptick over the next six or eight weeks. BB20
winningstreak
09 Nov 2016
208.5p At 208.5p the shares are beginning to look attractive for topping up. ws
Cantseethewoodsforthetrees
09 Nov 2016
Re: Question-BB20 Thanks for your reply-much appreciated.Perhaps it was part of Aviva's sell-off, so flagged up to the market in advance?Surprised that so many institutions have invested in AMS, as many seem ''allergic' to AIM shares as a matter of principle-so should bode well, although they all have their own agenda.Will be interesting to see if Trump's threat to dismantle 'Obamacare' has any impact on AMS sales.
grittynougat
04 Nov 2016
aviva [email protected] for nominees? thoughts?
soundos
27 Oct 2016
Re: Sharp fall Thanks BB20, an excellent analysis and a much closer reading of recent reports than my own!
BigBobby20
27 Oct 2016
Re: Sharp fall Hi Soundos:I agree with your views and expectations, though I imagine the impact of exchange rates may be unclear for some time yet, as 70% of the estimate transaction exposure is hedged (see trading update, 5 July), for twelve months, on a rolling basis, in advance. I suppose, therefore, that the true picture will not start to emerge until a year after the Brexit referendum. Clearly, in the meantime, we can be sure that the prices of the AMS range of products in mainland Europe, the US and the rest of the world will continue to look no different to the purchaser; however, at the AMS end of things, the revenue will convert into GBP in a very handsome way, tantamount to a 20% boost, a chunk of it dropping through to the bottom line. It will take an experienced economist to project the short and medium term impact on the costs of manufacturing. There is no manufacturing in the US, to my knowledge, so no difficult maths for us there, but there are four manufacturing centres in the Netherlands, Germany and the Czech Republic--and, of course two in the UK. The interim report included a geographic breakdown of revenues, with the following guidance: "Sterling sales, including some European partners, represents the largest currency with significant sales also in Euros and US dollars. The Group's policy is to use natural hedging where possible and to hedge transactional risk. The Group estimates that a 10% movement in the £:US$ or £:Euro exchange rate would impact Sterling revenues by approximately 3% and 3% respectively and, in the absence of any hedging, this would result in an impact on profit of 2.1% and 0.5% respectively."I am assuming that "impact' in the last sentence is to be understood in a positive sense (but a negative impact may be what is meant). BB20
soundos
26 Oct 2016
Re: Sharp fall Hopefully sterling's weakness will benefit AMS in the US and Europe. It may provide an opportunity for market building through undercutting. Although it remains to be seen whether AMS' manufacturing costs will decline - I'm guessing that if they do, it won't be significantly.
soundos
26 Oct 2016
Re: Sharp fall Thanks BB20.I'm also guessing at profit takers but was concerned that there may be some hidden issues caused by the weak sterling. I think you're right that this is most likely to represent a buying opp and is certainly not a time to panic.
Cantseethewoodsforthetrees
26 Oct 2016
Re: Sharp fall PE of c.31 may put PIs off buying although daily trading seems largely automatic via algoriithms.Guess AMS benefits from weak £, but don't know how competitive their sectors are in the US.One thing's for sure, imho, if they can beat the US companies in their home market, theyll get taken out by a US major.
BigBobby20
26 Oct 2016
Re: Sharp fall Hi Soundos. Zig and now zag. A dazzling rise over the last couple of months giving way to inevitable profit taking, in my view, accompanied by some stop losses triggered, which has prompted further selling Pretty well all of the recent rise is now retraced. (See ii chart.) There should, in theory,, be some resistance to further selling at the present price but a continued drift downwards could well see the SP retesting the 200 day moving average (around 201p). The SP slips under the 200 day moving average only very rarely and on past occasions this event has been a good opportunity for those wanting to increase their stake at the 'right' price.Nothing going wrong with the company that I know of. BB20
soundos
26 Oct 2016
Sharp fall Does anyone have any idea what might be driving the sharp losses in AMS this week?
BigBobby20
17 Oct 2016
Re: Question Hi Cantseeethewoods.You write: "New to this share, so puzzled that 250k buy doesn't shift the sp."Puzzling over why the SP goes up or down, even when it is in defiance of what seem to be contrary waves of buying or selling, is not worth the candle, especially on AIM. II (see "Trading"
does not differentiate in its log between buys and sells, while others (ADVFN) can only make a best guess at the nature of the day's transactions and often get things wrong. Most of my buys over the last year in various shares, including AMS, have appeared as sells. So there is no knowing whether the 250k you mention was a buy or a sell (unless it was your own deal). While computers log transactions and are often set up in dealing rooms to track and predict trends or alert traders to major shifts, market makers can--and according to the hue and cry often do-- intervene to massage (distort?) the price. (Read what people post when they claim an unexpected 'tree shake" has triggered their stop losses.)The best you can hope for is that a sound and well managed company like AMS, with no debts and good prospects, will do well over the long (and often medium) term and that the SP will remain faithful to fundamentals. In the short term, zag will follow zig and Fibonacci enthusiasts will point to expected or unexpected retracements, while shorters will have a field day if revenue and profits pause for breath. I could not find a transaction of 250,000 shares on the day you posted nor on the two previous working days, not that this number of shares is enough to move mountains. If an investment house drops four million shares into the market, that will make people sit up and perhaps react, leading an impact of some sort on the SP. Even then, an immediate buy back by another large investor will cancel out any slide or wobble.Enjoy the ride and do not try to fathom why you may at times being going back or standing still when you feel it would be much more logical to be moving forward.BB20
BigBobby20
12 Oct 2016
Stocks and their dividends See under "News" an interesting article by Ben Hobson on ten companies with the fastest growing dividends, which include AMS.We know the dividend here is not yet much to write home about (although LTHs who bought into a penny stock might feel otherwise). The point of the article is that noteworthy percentage rises in dividend that occur year after year are a very good way of identifying strong and promising companies.Worth a read.BB20
Cantseethewoodsforthetrees
11 Oct 2016
Question New to this share, so puzzled that 250k buy doesn't shift the sp.Can someone explain, thanks.
BigBobby20
03 Oct 2016
Steady as she goes.... SP opening at 234p today and holding on to some of this rise at the close. The pattern of higher highs and higher lows seems to be firm enough. An 8% rise in the SP over the next 12 weeks would bring us close to 250p by Christmas. Any bid after that will need at least a mark up of 125p to succeed, taking the SP within a stone's throw of 400p. Let's keep fingers crossed that no bid comes for at least another year, as 2017 could be very rewarding.BB20
