BigBobby20
21 Feb 2017
Re: good news coming? WinningStreak:I think this link will get you to the original of the news published by the Telegraph on the AMS 'supeglue' product as highlighted by Stillere.[link] do not have the article in front of me at this time but I recall, as Stillere mentions, that it points out approval will be needed from the US authorities before a roll out can begin. A promising source of new revenue when it happens.It goes to show (as if any proof were needed) that this is not a company that sits back to admire its past achievements and that the pipeline products are a crucial part of the AMS business plan.As I hoped, the SP turned around after its short, aberrant spell below the 200 day moving average and is comfortably back in more familiar territory with another decent rise this morning. My hunch is that the coming prelims (14 March) will concentrate minds nicely and keep the SP buoyant, though day traders will inevitably nibble away at the rise as they must. Let's see whether we can make it back to the mid 230s--ideally before prelim results, which promise to be at least tolerably good. BB20
stillere
21 Feb 2017
Re: good news coming? outlines likelihood of approval for INTERNAL use of medical adhesives thus widening mkt esp. in us
winningstreak
21 Feb 2017
Re: good news coming? Please outline contents of report.ws
stillere
20 Feb 2017
good news coming? report in today's telegraph should help . if confirmed could be big boost.
BigBobby20
09 Feb 2017
Re: Topped up (FAO Hedley) Hi Hedley:You offer an attentive analysis of the trend lines and I agree that there is no denying that things are always much clearer and more convincing when the volume of transactions is substantial. What we do know for certain is that the share price moved down from October onwards to sag very briefly into the high 190s and that, unusually, it ended up below the 200 day moving average. We are all accustomed to see shares go up and shares go down, sometimes for no obvious reason. In this case, there were doubtless those who felt the AMS share price had risen too far, too fast, in climbing to the mid 230s and who decided some profit taking was a good move. I believe there is also a sizeable percentage of shares out on loan, which suggests that shorters may have had a hand in this. In your post, you describe a downward pattern of "lower lows and lower highs". In reality, only the second part of that statement is correct, as one or two of the lows along the way were actually higher than preceding lows, serving to describe, for a while at least, a narrowing wedge. (A classic sign that investors were unsure of the direction of the next SP movements.) The final downward leg coincided with Trump looming larger than life to take up the reins and many investors doubtless fearing the worst for Pharma. (Not that we are really Pharma.) However, leaving aside this nicety of plotting exactly the highs and lows, I view the downwards zigzag of the AMS share price into the sub 200 day moving average zone as no more than a classic retracement, similar to those rare, earlier occurrences of the last two or three years. As I view the chart, the nearly continuous upward trend of recent years may have had something of a shaking but it has not been badly broken. Measure the latest retracement (from 235p to 199p) as a proportion of the SP and you will see that there is nothing in this correction that makes it significantly different from the earlier examples--if anything, this downturn was a little less swingeing. In the past, the powerful re-launch of the SP following such a lurch downwards came about in just a few days. New, heavy handed policies in the US, also the enduring worries about the impact of Brexit on business plans, probably explain why the sojourn below the 200 day moving average this time round ran to two or three weeks. But we now appear to be out of the woods and, so the evidence suggests, heading north once again. I do not see that this company has run out of marketable products or new ideas just yet and I agree with others here who calculate that this is not the time to be selling. For me, the recent retracement was a time to be pulling in whatever AMS shares one could afford.None of has a crystal ball, so we shall have to wait and see, as those old cricketers like to say.BB20
winningstreak
09 Feb 2017
Re: Topped up / hedley5 Hedley5 - You might like the looks of Inspired Energy (INSE).Along with AMS, INSE is one of firm long term holds.Cheers,ws
hedley5
09 Feb 2017
Re: Topped up / hedley5 Winningstreak,I am not negative on AMS medium/long term, but can find better/safer? places to put the proceeds in the short/medium term. As a long term buy and hold probably a good bet. Quality company, and possibility of a take over always there. My investing approach is based on momentum/quality. Quality still there. Momentum has broken down: negative relative strength over 3 and 6 months, price >10% off 52 week high, price below 50 and 200d moving average. Value: not great - highly rated on a rolling PER of 26, with forecast eps growth of only 10%. Macro: pressure on pharmas to reduce the price of product.I sold 2/3 of my long term holding. Sat in cash. Not sure where to put it yet. Recent purchases have been Blackrock World Mining fund, and Chemring. KWS and ABDP are examples of what i look for.All my own opinion, in the spirit of healthy debate. No offence intended.
winningstreak
09 Feb 2017
Re: Topped up / hedley5 Hedley5 - Let us know where you re-invested the proceeds so that wecan compare notes in a couple of months' time. I take little notice of of charts-performance, I take notice of the performance of the Company -of management performance, of reliable growth record, of sound balance sheet and, not least of all, of the quality/uniqueness of products, product innovation and product development. AMS scores top-class in all those respects. Therefore the shares are bound to grow in value, bound to be at a premium.IMHO,ws
hedley5
08 Feb 2017
Re: Topped up Good luck because its all looking weak now chartwise. Low volume during the rise up from 200, and much lower volume than the recent down days. The share price has been in a downtrend since october forming a channel with lower lows and lower highs. The previous trips down to the 200 day moving average were much quicker short lived corrections. 50 day moving average acted as resistance today. A nice company but looking overvalued, and with the uncertainty of Trump's attitude to healthcare amd pharmas i have sold down my holding. Each to their own!
Cantseethewoodsforthetrees
07 Feb 2017
Re: Topped up I think Trump's moderated his anti-pharma tirade-probably influenced by the Republican pro-pharma lobby-and investors nervousness has been calmed down.Also AMS's product range hardly qualifies in the patient rip-off category!Onwards & upwards.
winningstreak
07 Feb 2017
Re: Topped up Both AMS and APH are undervalued in my view. AMS shares ought to be trading in region of 250p,whilst APH shares should be above 55p. Both safe and sound stocks, operating in near recession proofterritory.IMHOws
BigBobby20
07 Feb 2017
Re: Topped up Hi Cantseethewood:Yes, normal service (we hope) resumed. Let's hope I'm not tempting Providence in saying that... But this impressive jump puts the SP back above the 200 day moving average (circa 207p). As I pointed out in my recent emails, charts for the last three or four years reveal that sorties below that important line are very rare occurrences for AMS. When they do happen, the SP hangs about below the 200 day line for days only rather than weeks or months. I hope I was not the only one to see this as a screaming buy and to take the opportunity to bag a few more.Jumps of this sort are interesting in that they get investors guessing. What is behind this rise? Is it too late to bag a few more? Or is it time even for a quick haircut? Has there been a leak of important news? What is it people know that I don't? How high will we now go?My impression is that the coming final results (about five weeks away) will be good, as the December trading update suggested. I suspect that the recent fall in the SP was brought about in part by those who borrowed shares with the aim of selling down and depressing the price (eventually to buy back in more cheaply). It's quite likely that the shorters, along with others who opted to take profits in the 230s, sensed strong resistance to further falls once we got to 200p and decided to throw the switch. The current SP (212p) is still well below our recent highs so there is still some ground to make up. There must be many who take the view that FY results which reflect an improvement in the company's trading position (think organic growth, new product lines, weak pound) will translate into a higher SP and that the mid 230s will soon become the new support level with 250+ the near term target. As they say in the US, go figure....BB20
Cantseethewoodsforthetrees
07 Feb 2017
Re: Topped up BB20,Looking good. 
BigBobby20
02 Feb 2017
Topped up I re-read a couple of my recent posts, liked what I saw (
) and bagged myself a new, man sized tranche yesterday not long before the close. A number of other, bigger buyers got in on the act, no doubt expecting movement before the final results. I shall decide whether to stay with this particular investment or move the money on when I arrive at a 20% to 25% return, which, if the SP runs true to form, will be not too long a wait. Next important step: breaking through the 200 day moving average (around 207p). The SP should, if all goes well, gear up rapidly after that. BB20
BigBobby20
01 Feb 2017
Prelims and expectations Preliminary results for the full year just ended will be published in six weeks on Tuesday, 14th March, 2017. The SP remains below the 200 day moving average and the chart is still bearish but I expect to see a move soon, in line with previous patterns, back above the 200 day line and then a steady pick up in price ahead of the results. The results should bring some cheer. In the trading update, towards the end of last year, chief executive Chris Meredith said: "The group continues to deliver strong organic growth from its existing product portfolio. This growth is further supported by our Research and Development activities that provide product innovation allowing us to maintain our leadership position in our chosen market segments. AMS is well positioned to continue on its growth trajectory." That's about as positive a forecast concerning the financial health of the company as one could wish for.BB20
