Greyinvestor
21 Nov 2014
Re: Steady progress I've noticed that the analysts forecasts for next year are coming down to 41p to 43p of earnings. Fair enough if claims go up and rates go down. This would imply fair value at around £4.It's all guesswork, of course, because who knows what claims will be........
Hydrogen Economy
20 Nov 2014
Re: Steady progress DeepIt seems that many good results or statements of late seem to be followed by a steep fall. Grey's explanation probably as good as any, people buying in in expectation of a big surprise on the upside (like the special div) and being disappointed with a company performing in line with or somewhat better than predicted but without the big headline.I was curious why CGL was holding up well and comparing the IMS from CGL on 13th and AML 19th CGL-11 per cent increase in gross premiums written-6 per cent increase in net premiums earnedAMLGross written premium 9 month up 4.2% at constant exchange rate increase was 9.9%. Maybe CGL built expectations but AML fell short?H2
Greyinvestor
20 Nov 2014
Best guess My best guess is threefold;I think that there are some traders/dividend funds buying in, in the hope of a big special dividend. The absence of comment on the subject will put some people off. My own view is that I would rather AML retained excess earnings to strengthen its balance sheet.Any comment about interest rates staying low tends to depress prices. Non life insurers will gain from interest rate increases.There is a substantial fall in rates, but no more than predicted.On the positive side, brokers are turning more positive on AML.
deepsleeves
19 Nov 2014
Re: Steady progress Grey/HydrogenI've got about a fair holding in AML and agree that the press release was okAny idea why the market has reacted so badly?Deep
Greyinvestor
19 Nov 2014
Re: Steady progress It's always an irony that in this business that you need losses in order to make future profits. I believe that terrorism and political risk is pretty lucrative.I just wish that my recent acquisition, STAN, was as stable. No chance, sadly.....
Hydrogen Economy
19 Nov 2014
Re: Steady progress GreyAgree, looks reassuring and I am happy holding given the low PE and great yield.Only eyebrow raiser was "Smaller catastrophe and large risk losses in the quarter, the most significant of which resulted from the terrorist attacks at Tripoli Airport, amounted to £33.4 million"If AML are insuring risks like that I hope the premiums are eye-watering! What else, Iraqi refineries, East Ukrainian public buildings, George Michael's car insurance? I'm sure they have it well under control.H2
Greyinvestor
19 Nov 2014
Steady progress A good IMS out today, I thought.Premiums +4%, more like 8% to 9% on a constant currency basis - good, better than manyRates (3.5%), fractionally worse than average - OKProperty rates (8.2%) - as seen elsewhereCatastrophe losses OK, below average - goodInvestment returns +1.8% YTD - goodJust a very steady report, I think.A strong hold for me. Better than they could have been.
