FRTEB
02 Mar 2015
Re: Reduced holding " In my view the entire stock market is overvalued. " Parts of it, yes, I'd agree, but I wouldn't say the entire market is overvalued.With Amlin, the generous divi will provide strong support for the sp and if there isn't a healthy run up to ex-divi day on 16th April then I'll eat my hat. I ain't sellin'.
aspace
02 Mar 2015
Re: Reduced holding So you're the one who caused a 4% drop this morning!
Greyinvestor
02 Mar 2015
Reduced holding In keeping with my views about valuation, I have reduced the size of my AML holding by quite a bit today.
Greyinvestor
02 Mar 2015
Results out Premiums +8% - goodPBT £259m v £326m - worse than expectedCombined ratio 89% v 86% - in line with 5 year average, could have been a bit betterBig claims in UK for floods plus some mid sized catastrophes in US and EuropeRates (3.6%)Investment return £118m v £160m; 2.8% - perfectly reasonableNTA 304p v 289p - reasonableEPS 47.4p v 60pBig dividend, 18.9p plus 15p special, payable 28 May if on register 17 April - good (33.9p in one lump)ROE 14.1% v 19.8% - OKIn summary, all of the non life insurers are finding life much tougher than 5 years ago, as a direct result of QE driving excess money into the market, and lowering rates. The outlook is for a long, hard spell ahead. But the sector continues to throw off above-average yields.In my view the entire stock market is overvalued. Analysts are forecasting that AML will earn 43p next year. This seems as good a guess as any.
Rusty Jock
02 Mar 2015
Dividend Up Results are down as expected .But the ord dividend is increased slightly to 27p and a special dividend of 15p has been declared , giving a total yield of 8% at the current SP .
devonplay
18 Feb 2015
Re: Consolidation is Comming - Telegraph Thanks for sharing HE.Devon
Hydrogen Economy
18 Feb 2015
Consolidation is Comming - Telegraph Presumably this has been supporting AML and other Insurer's SPs since Catlin takeover, along with the hunt for yield.[link] Catlin, who is about to sell his Lloyd’s of London insurance company, has said that his industry should “be on the front foot and proactive” rather than sit and wait for a takeover offer. Consolidation is coming, he said, so you may as well choose your partner. Brit joined the party on Tuesday, agreeing to a £1.2bn bid from Canadian firm Fairfax after less than a year back on the stock market. Its private equity backers, who hold 73.3 pc of the stock, have given their blessing to the deal, meaning attention has already turned to the next potential takeovers. Last year, UK insurers had their busiest year for mergers and acquisitions since 2007, with 64 companies worth $14.4bn swallowed up, according to Dealogic data. While the £5.6bn Friends Life and Aviva deal makes up a large chunk of the total, there are nevertheless growing signs that the five remaining listed companies within the Lloyd’s of London market are all theoretically on the block. The Lloyd’s market covers risks through syndicates, often made up of several companies, meaning the potential costs of environmental catastrophes or aviation disasters are spread out. This safety in numbers is attractive to global insurers, such as China Re, which opened a new syndicate last November with support from Catlin. Many firms at Lloyd’s also offer reinsurance, or policies sold to insurance firms to help them spread the burden of large claims. However, in the same way a no-claims bonus lowers prices for motorists, a dearth of big disaster claims since the Costa Concordia ran aground in early 2012 has led to much lower reinsurance premiums, putting further pressure on the smaller players. On the other side of the business, insurers have struggled to make decent returns from the investments they must hold to cover potential claims. With interest rates at record lows in many parts of the world and bond yields in the doldrums, it has proven difficult for some firms to generate enough money to invest in technology upgrades and acquisitions on their own. A number of firms with business in Lloyd’s have already been taken over in recent years. Lancashire Holdings bought Cathedral for £266m, while the Japanese group Sompo acquired Canopius last year for £600m. “Given current industry dynamics, we think it is most likely there is more consolidation to come,” said analysts at UBS on Tuesday. “We think the next candidate, predominantly based upon valuation, could be Lancashire trading on 1.4 [times this year’s net asset value], although note that the obvious risk that it has just done a deal itself.” Others pointed to Novae, with a smaller market value of about £400m. Shares in Novae rose more than 5pc on Tuesday, while Lancashire, with a market value of £1.2bn, closed slightly lower. “There is no reason why Amlin, Beazley and Hiscox could not be bid for as all are high quality operations that would make attractive acquisitions, but the exit multiple/cost that would be demanded makes them more difficult targets, in our view,” wrote Westhouse Securities analyst Joanna Parsons in a research note. Hiscox, half of whose business comes from retail customers, is seen as more difficult to swallow whole, with a market value of £2.6bn. However, analysts at Canaccord Genuity have recently suggested that it could unlock value by selling off the reinsurance and wholesale arms of its business. Andrew Horton, the chief executive of Beazley, said earlier this month that he was not expecting a new round of M&A “until the markets got even more competitive”. However, with interest in the Lloyd’s players peaking, even the largest firms will be weighing up their options for partneri
Inatthetop
23 Jan 2015
Re: When to buy Agree with your comments 100%. I am also in Amlin for the long term (4 years so far).However I look to one of their peers in Hiscox for my largest holding whose performance has I believe been considerably better, with good dividends and consolidation returning a decent amount of capital.
aspace
23 Jan 2015
Re: When to buy Amlin have continued to rise in the first few weeks of this year now trading at 493 which according to my calcs puts them on a PE of about 9 and dividend yield of about 5%, so still good value by those measures. The rise in share price seems to be the opposite of what some on this board were waiting for given the competition and rates pressure in the insurance sector at present. From the limited news around, the rise appears due to the prospective takeover of Catlin and possible further takeover speculation in the sector as reported by the Motley Fool recently. Reversal of any institutional short positions might also have contributed to the rise.I'm long term in Amlin and hoping they don't get taken over as I would then have to re-allocate that capital elsewhere. Great company and great dividend.
Greyinvestor
11 Jan 2015
When to buy I'm not a trader, but in my experience the time to buy non life insurers is in early summer. They very often dip at that time, which I guess is due to the dividend hunters bailing out, plus the new buyers waiting until late in the hurricane season to buy in.
aspace
25 Dec 2014
Re: Smallish sale I agree this is good one to hold. Have tried trading before, usually with disappointing results as timing can catch me out (not sell high enough and/or not buy back low enough). Amlin appear well managed and shareholder-friendly. Even in the 2011 year of catastrophes Amlin maintained the dividend. I see this one as a buy and hold, not trade.
winningstreak
24 Dec 2014
Re: Smallish sale Share price may we hold up and rise further, the attraction is the high dividend and the low PE-ratio.IMHO,ws
Greyinvestor
24 Dec 2014
Smallish sale I've sold a smallish proportion of my AML today, only because I think they've got a bit beyond themselves. I'd hope to pick them back up again at a lower price..........
deepsleeves
19 Dec 2014
Re: 3 month High Yes but the recent rise is on the back of Catlin takeover so this could drop perhaps to low 400s if nothing happens in the coming weeks.Happy to hold but considering banking profit on some of my holding and would look to buy back later in Q1 of 2015 before AML goes ex divDeep
highsnlows
18 Dec 2014
3 month High A very positive rise this week taking Amlin to its 3 month highs. Onward & Upward.HnL
