II Editor
20 Jun 2015
NEW ARTICLE: Trends and Targets for 18/06/2015 "A glitch ensured this report was delayed on Thursday, so we're publishing to ensure continuity. AMLINÂ PLC (LSE:AML) has a cracking chart history since 2001. Basically the share started going up and currently is showing no sign of stopping. ..."[link]
Tenobas
17 Jun 2015
Re: Ouch, down 12.2p ! But a very very impressive demonstration of TA effects once again on the second wave !
Tenobas
17 Jun 2015
Ouch, down 12.2p ! .
devonplay
01 Jun 2015
Happy first day of the Hurricane Season! - I think.DL
Warren Buffoon
27 May 2015
Re: Income investments 'Tis funny that, Greyinvestor. Those are my thoughts too. I'm a "value investor" and I have quite a chunk of cash sitting on the sidelines but can find nothing suitable to buy.As Warren Buffett might have said ..... sitting on my hands is the best thing I can do at the moment.WB(dipped in and out of S America a few years back but doesnt look enticing any more.... and don't do bonds!)
Tenobas
26 May 2015
Re: Clearly the bottom Well, it overshot one way.Can it overshoot the other?
devonplay
22 May 2015
Re: Income investments "South America does look cheap, but may be a value trap. I'm thinking......."There's a very good possibility that could be true. Long time lines and not rushing in would be my advice.I'm still sitting on the sidelines with the highest portion of cash I've held for a longtime. Where I am investing its div income, certainly no large chunks of new capital,I haven't added any meaningful new positions this year ('15).DL
aspace
22 May 2015
Re: Q1 statement The last ten years of data supports Inatthetop's belief that AML underwrite well. EXCEPT in 2011 when a Greinvestor "clump" of catasrophes hit in Japan, Australia and NZ. But even in that annus horribilis AML were able to maintain the dividend. As well as supporting rates going forwards, mistakes like that become valuable organisational learning as policies and processes are updated to reflect the lessons learned. Therefore I am not selling and remain happy with my several years of holding and topping up in AML.
Greyinvestor
22 May 2015
Income investments I'm not against AML as an investment, I just think that the price is too high for current market conditions. There is a tidal wave of money coming out of CGL and BRIT and into AML and LRE.I still have reasonable holdings in LRE and BEZ and plan to maintain them at current levels.The good news is that insurers can buy reinsurance at very low prices, so they can reduce downside risk. Good for AML cutting it's bond risk too.I despair of the current market, but have acquired smaller holdings in CNKS, ALY, AIP, PRES (don't buy now, the price has run up 50% in six weeks), and SHOE. The trouble is that I don't want big holdings in smaller companies. I am searching endlessly for decent prices and yields.South America does look cheap, but may be a value trap. I'm thinking.......
Rusty Jock
21 May 2015
Re: Q1 statement After many years invested in this sector attracted by the 5 - 6 % dividends , I am now totally out having sold my AMLIN holding this morning .My Catlin and Brit holdings were subject to takeovers , and my switch into Lancashire and Amlin as the alternative high div stocks lasted but a few months .I am out because rates have fallen and continue to fall , and the investment risk has increased considerably , leaving shareholders exposed in the event of a bad run of claims .I will be back once rates start to firm up , but that could well be some way off .I am switching into high yielding financial services shares , recent IPOs still on modest ratings RDL , VSL ....... Taking a bit of a chance but other similar IPOs have done well.
Inatthetop
21 May 2015
Re: Q1 statement They will only get pasted if they write business at ridiculously low rates. Good underwriters will decline those risks and wait until rates return to a more reasonable level. I believe Amlin have a sensible underwriting policy so will stick with them for the time being.
Greyinvestor
21 May 2015
Re: Q1 statement With P/Es in this sector, just remember that the E fluctuates according to the number of claims. So a P/E of 12 based on a low claims year is really more like 15 to 20.Catastrophes can easily come along in clumps. In fact Florida windstorms, the biggest catastrophe of all, do exactly that.If you typically trade on a margin of 15%, then cut your rates by 7.5%, your margin has halved. Reinsurance prices are down by that sort of order.
Tenobas
21 May 2015
Re: Q1 statement "Some reinsurance players will get pasted at some point."Help me to understand how this business works and how this will come about.Would losses be due to Defaults? Claims not being covered? Rates falling further?The strong impression I get is steady ahead as she goes.Is it true that this type of business cruises until a large catastrophe destroys all the prevailing assumptions and opens up new profit opportunities for the future; hopefully larger than any crystallised losses?Do insurance businesses always operate at low P/E rations?
devonplay
21 May 2015
Re: Q1 statement Agree Grey. I sold a portion of my holding several months ago.My expectation is we'd be back below 4.20 sooner or later.Over all the "market" worries me. My last purchases have all been L America.It's the only place I could see reasonable value. I've just excepted the added risk.DL
Greyinvestor
21 May 2015
Q1 statement I sold out of AML because I believed that it was overvalued. It used to be a pretty large holding of mine.Q1 statement;Premiums falling at constant exchange rates (1.4%) - weakRates falling (3.5%) - weakInvestment return 1.7% - strongBond duration down to 0.4 years - goodEquity holdings reduced - goodClaims environment benign so far - so it should be, autumn is always the risk timeIn my view nothing much has changed. The whole stock market market is dangerously overvalued. I think that AML shares are worth about £4.10 All of the competition is overvalued too, although I'd probably pick BEZ as the best value right now (same premiun but better quality).The key weakness in the insurance market is rates. They are simply too low. Some reinsurance players will get pasted at some point.
