TX2
21 Oct 2016
Re: Just some news There are about 21 ALY concessions within Homebase;so a fairly small operation.
Speculator 73
21 Oct 2016
Just some news [link]
Bill1703
18 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks - dividend "This means the obfuscation of the report has either fooled investors and the market or the good points about online sales and a strong balance sheet has carried the day. I think the first option is unlikely"Yes, investors - and the market they populate - rarely stay fooled for long, and usually for minutes rather than hours, let alone days.Most likely, it looks like (yet another) case of the market being well ahead of events, with the shares falling in advance of the revelation of reality which changes the outlook from a stock looking great value to more like fair value - possibly even worse. The reporting date change has been public for a long time so I think we can excuse them on the charge of burying bad news - but they could have reassured (or come clean) on a number of counts, and clearly chose not to.As an aside, I always hear alarm bells when a company says current trading is "in line with management expectations". Rather than "market expectations". Who knows what management is expecting, and just how good (or much more often, bad) that may be?!?So the stock edging up yesterday is most likely just minor relief that the reality is not even worse - and it looks like it's given most of it back already. From here, it could be a long haul, as we await further reports - of recovery, or further deterioration, and probably a toss up at to which it is. Likewise with the dividend - maybe they will only cut it to 1.5p, but 1.0p looks much more likely, and it could be worse than this. Either way, I would need much more of a value story to compensate for the corporate governance issues emanating from the ownership structure.
casabanker
18 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks - dividend Hello Bill,Looking back at the dividends received while I have held ALY, the record is top class. However, it has dropped in value by more than the divi received which looks like a classic value trap. Since the report yesterday, the sp has risen. This means the obfuscation of the report has either fooled investors and the market or the good points about online sales and a strong balance sheet has carried the day. I think the first option is unlikelyI know my holding here is too high and I need to reduce my risk level but I will hold for a little longer to see if the stock can rally and I will be able to reduce my holding. Now that it looks like the divi has been halved (not certain yet), there will be no point holding too long if the sp doesn;t recover, The 4% dividend is quite a reasonable level but if the share continues to be weak , I can achieve that elsewhere with stable prices currently at least.Casa.
Bill1703
18 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks - dividend "I have to say that I am not keen on the way ALY has done this report. Firstly, the dividend has been reduced to 0.5p but is this going to be followed by further payments of 0.5p ... July is normally a strong month, the profit figure will not be far short of the £8.1m of previous year."Yes casa, playing around with reporting periods in a classic warning sign for a company looking to hide things, or at least buy time. Not saying ALY definitely is, but they could have been much clearer about various things going forward, and they passed up the opportunity.You make a good point about seasonality, businesses like this can make most of their profits (if not sales) in literally just a few days over the year, so we will likely have to wait for the true picture. Looks like profitability is definitely running down, on a true annualised basis, but maybe not by that much, and as you say, there are some positive signs within the mix.But the investment case from here probably hinges on things either clarifying in a positive way, and/or things improving at an early stage. If EPS is running at more like 1.5-1.6p annualised (guess?), then the stock is trading at 13-14x - with a 4.7% yield, assuming a dividend rebased to 1.0p annually, which is still my best guess. And that all looks no more than about right for this kind of business and profile.
casabanker
17 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks - dividend I have to say that I am not keen on the way ALY has done this report. Firstly, the dividend has been reduced to 0.5p but is this going to be followed by further payments of 0.5p next year? The period of 22 weeks to the end of June is not comparable but if you consider that July is normally a strong month, the profit figure will not be far short of the £8.1m of previous year. There are two things that I find encouraging. Firstly, online sales are up substantially even though overall sales are down. ALY has replaced the franchisee in Australia. On the downside, the gbp is weaker which will increase costs for imports and the basic wage has increased, squeezing margins.I am sticking with this for now. I have a big capital deficit and it is one of my largest holdings. I will be watching for more clarity at the next ims. ALY has a strong balance sheet with assets outweighing debt and the brand is strong internationallly.Casa.
TX2
17 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks - dividend Yes Laura Ashley Dividends.At a quick check I seem over approx six years rec'd 15.75p total divis on ALY shares bought for 14.6p!
Bill1703
17 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks - dividend FWIW, I suspect the inference should be a 50% cut in the annualised dividend going forward, to 1.0p from 2.0p.Given that annualised EPS is clearly now running at something below 2.0p, a 1.0p full year dividend is probably the most they should be paying out?
Bill1703
17 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks "Direct comparison of the extra period with last years interims is difficult as they ran to 1st Aug 2015,while these were for only 5 months to end June,but on a pro rata basis profits seem down and I think turnover."Yes, the 22wk period to end June is the revealing point here. Looks like
BT (pre-ex) £5.1m (22wks) vs £8.3m (26wks to end July)EPS (pre-ex) ~0.4p (22wks) vs ~0.9p (26 wks)So on an underlying PBT basis, looks like the pro-rata decline is in the order of 25-30%. More so on EPS, though understandably given the greater gearing on small numbers.And I am not sure we can extrapolate on the dividend - will probably have to wait for the next results to get a clear picture of the extent of any reduction vs rephasing, etc.
TX2
17 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks The actual accounts do not appear on the iii site yet,just the summary, as far as I can see these are only on Stock Exchange site at the moment.Direct comparison of the extra period with last years interims is difficult as they ran to 1st Aug 2015,while these were for only 5 months to end June,but on a pro rata basis profits seem down and I think turnover.In general a lower exchange rate will affect all retailers of a type on an equal basis.Most of ALYs goods are imported as is most for their competitors.But as people will have about the same money to spend,logic says they will buy less product.....I am holding but I have had my shares for a long time & purchased at a substantially lower price than at present so am in a different position from recent purchasers.
winningstreak
17 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks The figures that really matter, i.e. Profit and EPS, were not given as "like for like" . They were seriously down on "like for like" basis.ws
Bill1703
17 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks We've already had results for 52wks of these 74 weeks, which were down a bit but much less than the direct comparison might inferBT (pre-ex) 20.7 vs 22.9EPS (pre-ex) 2.2p vs 2.4pSo with the sharp seasonality in the business, I don't think you can make direct pro-rata comparisons for the 74 weeks vs the original 53 weeks - and certainly not with the dividend payments.And the like-for-like picture, as has been said already, is for the full 74wk period, and is reasonably positive.Nonetheless, yes, presentation is poor and fails to shed much visibility on the current investment outlook. Still a markedly cheap stock with a very big yield - but I doubt this will change until this visibility clears somewhat.
Greyinvestor
17 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks Sorry Chiefy, but what does that mean?Is the only 'like for like' the same store sales number? ie not any of the financial numbers?
whatsupnow
17 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks Like for like sales up 4.1%. 5 stores opened and 18 closed. So where does that leave next years sales and profit expectations?Have sold out
Chiefy -1
17 Aug 2016
Re: 74 weeks versus 53 weeks All references to "like-for-like" refer to a full 74 weeks comparison.
