Misty Creamybib
09 Sep 2015
Re: Ouch! Hi Rab,If you look on 'Analysis' and 'Technical Insight' I find this very useful for timing my entries into stocks.Now look at the charting analysis for UKX and it looks horrendous. So many long term and intermediate bearish patterns have emerged. It could be argued that the charting analysis is not totally appropriate for a index which accepts and rejects members but it is a starting point to look a specific members of the index.Having looked at many members of the UKX the picture isn't much prettier. For example Glencore, TESCO and BP. and heavily entrenched in a bearish chart and the rebounds over the last couple of days really do not change that.Personally and I caveat it with a WTFDIK the value to be had is in small and medium size caps where low prospective P/E s are available (there are not that many) and companies which appear to be growing regardless. ALK looks very attractive on these metrics but I would want more buying to confirm this. My concern is that the price increase today will be met with sell the news having bought the rumour, that said I can't see price build up on the rumour.I hold no FTSE100 stocks at the moment but I feel there some AIM and small caps which are screaming buys.In short I would have held ALK if I had it and dumped some of the larger lumbering stocks instead.
Rab Munro
09 Sep 2015
Re: Ouch! You can all thank me for this rise, as this always happens to me a few days after I sell. It took me a few days to sell too, as there were no buyers at all. Hey ho! I took the decision to sell everything last week, as it looked to me and still does that the 7+ year bull run was over. If the indices go to new highs and prove this theory wrong, then I'll be looking to buy back in, but I'm probably in no hurry at the moment.
gretel
09 Sep 2015
VSA Capital have 43p target price From VSA Capital today - they have a 43p target price, on a forward EV/EBITDA of only 5.7x.... "Alkane Energy (ALK LN)# Alkane Energy (ALK), the UK gas to power producer, has released interim results for the period ended 30 June 2015.• Revenue: £8.7m, +22.5% YoY (H1 2014: £7.1m); VSA FY estimate is £21.4m, +34.1% YoY• Adjusted PBT: £1.4m, +180.0% YoY (H1 2014: £0.5m); VSA FY estimate is £5.2m, +59.0% YoY• Net debt at 30 June: £19.3m, 41% net gearing (H1 2014: £12.4m, 31%)• Electricity output (CMM and Power Response) was 106GWh, +24.7% YoY (H1 2014: 85GWh); VSA FY estimate is 216GWh• Total installed generating capacity of 145MW• 94% of 2015 output contracted at an average price of £52/MWh; 56% of 2016 output contracted at an average price of £50/MWh (H1 2015: 89% of 2014 output contracted at an average price of £51/MWh; 64% of 2015 output contracted at an average price of £52/MWh) VSA Comment As highlighted by the recent trading update, ALK is trading in-line with our forecasts for the full-year. Almost all revenue was classified as core, at £8.6m, +45.7% YoY (H1 2014: £5.9m). Growth in core generation is largely as a result of full contribution from the Carron Energy power response assets acquired last year and the Maltby CMM operation, which was shut for three months in H1 2014 as the mine was sealed. STOR calls were also at an elevated level from April onwards and this has continued into Q3. Although UK electricity pricing has been on a downwards trajectory this year, ALK has now secured almost all of its 2015 baseload power output at an average price of £52/MWh. Baseload power prices have seen a slight increase in the last couple of weeks, as we move towards winter 2015/16, which has the potential be produce one of the lowest supply/demand margins on record. Our model assumes all remaining 2016 baseload output will be sold at current futures prices. This currently delivers an average selling price of £46.7/MWh for next year. However, baseload pricing is only part of the story. For its power response activities, ALK has reported that average pricing under its winter running programme has increased to £227/MWh for the coming winter, up from £195/MWh in winter 2014/15, +16% YoY with significant increases in availability and capacity payments as well. We believe this demonstrates the increasing importance of power response assets to the UK National Grid. The confirmed closure of the 2.4GW Longannet power station (c4.5% of UK peak demand) and the proposed closure of the 2.0GW Eggborough power station (c4% of UK peak demand), which will both close by 31 March 2016 alongside Ferrybridge C (1GW) are the latest announcements to highlight the growing fragility of the UK’s future power supply. With a forward EV/EBITDA of 5.7x and a P/Book of 0.8x, we maintain our BUY recommendation and target price of 43p."
rollthediceagain
09 Sep 2015
Re: Excellent interims Back to 30p for starters?---Would be nice but I want more
gretel
09 Sep 2015
Excellent interims Great stuff - 0.94p EPS in H1 alone, before the much seasonally stronger H2.And ALK have won a DBO contract:"The Group's DBO activity is focussed on biogas and working with other onshore oil and gas operators. Whilst H1 has seen lower activity Alkane has won a supply contract and is expecting an increase in DBO revenue in H2."Plus there's the £5m or so of shares in EDR.The outlook is very confident.Back to 30p for starters?
rollthediceagain
09 Sep 2015
RNS ~ Interims Very positive set of interims ~ hopefully we'll start to see some response in the sp after months in the doldrums!
pseudopolylageraemia
03 Sep 2015
Re: Can anybody tell me Baseload is sold to the grid, as would excess solar from your roof.Some slights can do both busload and then power response using mains gas when required.
mexicoman
02 Sep 2015
Re: Can anybody tell me Click on national grid status ferry bridge burns waste now
George Zibbos
02 Sep 2015
Re: Can anybody tell me I see thanks, so is this baseload running fed into the grid and sold or is it merely burned off ?News tonight of the closure of Eggborough and Ferrybridge next year must surely be good news for Alkane. I believe this winter is going to be a bad one as well, due to the effects of El nino which is already having severe effects in other parts of the world.
pseudopolylageraemia
02 Sep 2015
Re: Can anybody tell me Because most of the coal mine methane capacity is 'baseload' running 24h, rather than 'power response' running at peak times.
mexicoman
02 Sep 2015
Re: Can anybody tell me Because some power stations are offline
George Zibbos
02 Sep 2015
Can anybody tell me Why on a nice warm day I went past one of Alkanes coal methane generators and it was running ? The sun was out and it was midday so why ? I thought these generators only kicked in during times of high demand in Winter. Not that Im complaining because hopefully the more generation we supply the more profit and maybe the share price might even go up a bit. Or am I missing something ?
gretel
15 Jul 2015
More good news for ALK on BBC UK spare electricity capacity is to fall this winter[link]
gretel
15 Jul 2015
New National Grid contract wins [link] 2015Alkane Energy plc Alkane wins National Grid demand side balancing contracts for coming winterAlkane Energy plc (“Alkane”
is delighted to announce that it has again won contracts in the demand side balancing reserve (“DSBR” auction for the 2015/16 winter season. These contracts are part of National Grid’s DSBR programme which is designed to provide additional balancing services to the UK electricity market during periods of high winter demand.The contracts are to supply 57MW capacity to National Grid during the coming winter from within the Group’s existing portfolio of Power Response capacity. This is the second year Alkane has been successful in winning contracts to work with National Grid in this important programme. This award is a reflection of Alkane’s cost effective, flexible and highly reliable operating assets. The current generating fleet provides an ideal partner to National Grid in meeting its security of supply targets. The Grid programme is designed to cover the winter peak period from 4pm to 8pm each weekday between November and February. Alkane looks forward to working with National Grid on the DSBR programme in addition to our operations in the Short Term Operating Reserve (“STOR” and the Capacity Market."
mexicoman
07 Jul 2015
Re: Excellent H1 trading update today They will be able to get the gas from Hatfield collerie thorsby both closedown
