HamptonCaught
01 Apr 2015
Down we go again - another 2.3% today. I have so much faith in this company, but a little bit of me is starting to wonder if it's misplaced.
Loldemort
30 Mar 2015
Re: How come Didn't the CEO blame the lack of activity in top up on them getting their pricing wrong, and say they'd got a better handle on it this year?If they can build a business doing swing generation using bought-in gas then they have a solution of sorts for declining methane levels in 'traditional' CMM projects. I'm just hoping they know their oats on the trading side of things, which is why I'm pleased they seem to have got their hedging right.
smilingmickey1
30 Mar 2015
Re: How come I've been trying to get a handle on this Company. On the face of it the share price seems very attractive based on the reported EPS figures for the year.However 2014 financial results include an "accounting profit" which is the value of the share holding they have of Egdon at the end of the year following the sale of their shale gas exploration licences in return for the issue of 18 million shares. As I understand it, at the end of each accounting period there will be a loss or a gain reported depending upon the value of the shares owned.They are expecting some growth this year from their "core" CMM sourced power generation so one can expect a some improvement in this part of the business in the coming year. Alkane are investing more heavily in gas fired kit for generating top up electricity mainly during peak demand in the winter. They have reported getting some guaranteed revenue as a result of receiving payments for having the capacity available. The hope is that when this kit is operating (at peak demand times) electricity prices will be mouthwateringly high particularly as existing (many coal) power plants are taken off line. There was not much revenue generated from this activity in the 2014 accounts despite the largish investments during the year and they reported that demand was lower than they had anticipated. think I'll wait for more news on how that is going before dipping my toe in. On the face of it, in 2014 the core operations of the Company at best broke even. Power prices received are flat so there will need to be a much better performance from the winter top up generation capacity for there to be better results going forward.Welcome anyone's thoughts.
Ripley94
07 Mar 2015
Re: How come sold these Jan 14, back in last Thursday.
dabba
09 Feb 2015
Re: How come I don't know how everyone reads the future prospects of this company, but I view this SP fall as temporary. Agreed profits are down 15%, SP down 30%+. The business model seems to be towards steady growth and now has an unquantifiable exposure to fracking.
Ripley94
08 Feb 2015
Re: How come Thanks.
DAWTO
02 Feb 2015
How come this sort of news doesn't get properly reported via RNS[link]
George Zibbos
23 Jan 2015
Falling Price I think this is a good buy at this price, in fact I may top up on Monday. More upside than downside now and a bit overdone on the sells IMO
rollthediceagain
23 Jan 2015
Re: sells Fair point about falling price but then underlying cost of gas is falling too so how much will margin will be squeezed? 2018 long term contract announcement also adds some protection.
HamptonCaught
23 Jan 2015
A RISE!!! A mere 0.56%, but a rise nonetheless and not something we've seen from Alkane for some time. I feel a glass of Whisky coming on tonight.
pharmaspecialist
23 Jan 2015
Re: sells Further to my post of a few days ago, circumstantial evidence suggests that there is likely to have been an element of insider dealing, as much of the recent share price fall occurred in the weeks before the bad news was released on 21st January. The VSA Capital note indicates that this news was price sensitive and the FCA would do well to check the affiliations/relationships of those trading prior to this announcement, particularly as there were plenty of people outside the company with insider knowledge of the news, presumably including those working on the broker note which was released just after the news. The news does unfortunately fundamentally change the prospects for Alkane as it is clear that electricity prices in the UK are falling significantly. After five years of steadily rising prices and plenty of news about feared blackouts, I was surprised to see that forward prices obtainable by Alkane for its electricity had fallen by around 15% out to 2016. However, I still think that the company is well run, as shown by the fact that a significant amount of its output in 2015/16 has already been sold at higher prices. Also, the decision not to retain the shale interests within the company looks the right one. If you think electricity prices will stop falling or even recover then I think the right decision would be to retain Alkane shares. My research suggests that there is plenty of surplus electricity production in Europe now that renewable sources are coming on stream and I note from the press that relatively new and efficient gas fired power stations in Germany and some other countries are actually being mothballed for this reason. I certainly can't predict what is going to happen to UK electricity prices but I note that interconnectors to take advantage of cheaper continental electricity would be one solution, albeit a very expensive one. I would not suggest that Alkane is a SELL as it has already locked in good prices for its electricity for an extended period and these prices may recover in the longer term. However for my own investment philosophy there is now too much uncertainty to make me comfortable with holding the shares, but best of luck to those who do.
rollthediceagain
22 Jan 2015
Re: sells ..and still the sells come with bid now down to 22.5pAlthough update was disappointing, particularly the fall in calls in Q4 for STOR, the picture for 2015 was better. Alkane has now lost roughly a third of it's market cap during Jan having been pretty steady in the low 30s for months.
Rab Munro
21 Jan 2015
Re: VSA Capital note: I don't think the long-term story has changed, so I bought myself a few more this morning.
dabba
21 Jan 2015
I thought this looked like good news? Alkane Energy saw good solid progress in 2014 and reports a strong start to the new financial year with record production.The group expects power sales to have reached close to 200GWh in the year ended 31 December (2013: 192GWh) with an expected average base load price of circa £52/MWh (2013: £53/MWh). Alkane now has 27 sites with a combined operating capacity of 145MW. The three power response sites acquired from Carron Energy in July are now operating in line with expectations and we have brought on upgraded capacity at both Shirebrook and Wheldale just before the year end. Alkane says: "We are pleased to report that we have seen record levels of production for the group as we enter the new year."
rollthediceagain
21 Jan 2015
VSA Capital note: Well we now know reason for weakness... ---(copied across from advfn)VSA Capital this morning still expect a PBT of £5.5m for 2015 based on the output already sold - this equates to around 3.75p EPS....They have a 49p target price:"Alkane Energy (ALK LN)#Alkane Energy (ALK), the UK gas-to-power producer, has released a pre-close trading update for the period ended 31 December 2014.• Electricity output (CMM and Power Response) was c200GWh, +4.2% YoY (2013: 192GWh), VSA FY estimate was 230GWh.• Average electricity sales price was £52/MWh, -1.9% YoY (2013: £53/MWh), VSA FY estimate was £53/MWh.• As of 31 December 2014, 82% of 2015 output contracted at an average price of £52/MWh (As of 31 December 2013, 59% of 2014 output at £53/MWh)• FY 2014 results will be published 11 March 2015. Board expects revenue to be c£18m (-14% on our forecast of £20.9m) and an adjusted PBT of £3.25-£3.5m (-16.7%-22.6% on our forecast of £4.2m)VSA CommentHeadline financial figures are certain to deliver share price weakness today. From an H1 adjusted PBT of £0.5m, there was little room for error in H2 if FY forecasts were to be hit. A late start for the upgraded capacity at Wheldale and Shirebrook combined with a mild winter, which reduced the number of STOR calls (-56% YoY), impacted results significantly.However, ALK made significant progress in 2014 in its power response business through acquisitions (10MW Wheldale, 49MW Carron Energy) and developing its organic pipeline, supported by the award of Capacity Mechanism agreements concerning the development of 46MW of new generation capacity to be completed by winter 2018. In CMM, ALK will drill two CMM licence sites in 2015 (Stoke, Markham Main) and the company has also applied for a number of new CMM licences as part of the 14th Onshore Licensing Round.The current weak electricity prices is predominately an issue for ALK’s coal mine methane base load output, although it does also impact STOR/winter peak-load pricing.However, ALK has locked in a much higher proportion of this year’s output than it did last year and even has 30% of its 2016 output sold at £51/MWh. In power response, the related fall in gas prices has helped to preserve margins. Average 2015 electricity price is currently c£43/MWh (having been in the 50s for most of 2014) with 2016 pricing currently c£45/MWh, demonstrating the advantages of ALK’s forward pricing strategy and also highlights that fact that 2016 provides the most near-term risk, not 2015.For 2015, we would expect a significant jump in output as Maltby (down for maintenance for three months in FY 2014) and other acquired assets make a FY impact (VSA est: 230GWh). Given the level of output already forward sold, we expect an adjusted PBT of £5.5m for FY 2015.We retain our BUY recommendation but, having made certain adjustments to our model (including reducing average selling prices in future years and marking to market ALK’s EDR stake), we have adjusted our target price to 49p."
