mantrova
09 Sep 2016
Re: Results mna - yes, a pity they sold that hotel....but later lunches were also elsewhere, following that disposal, although rather too far away for me.gl
mnamna
09 Sep 2016
Re: Results m'by chance there may also be a return to the excellent AGM lunches'Not unless they buy the hotel back as well?cheers
thirty fifty twenty
09 Sep 2016
analysis of results at 32p WOW - what great results!I was nervous of bad news on the pension position a la carclo but analysing the results and these guys are still undervalued IMHO. They might turn out to be a share price rise a la Victoria or Styles & Wood.What I see...1. much improved profitability. H1 was 700k; H2 was 1.4m. so good chance for higher profits news year.2. as mentioned in other posts - lower GBP also improves profits and also gives them chances of growth overseas - double win3. I do like their simple strategy - create products that people want to buy !!4. They generate CASH. Bank balance is current 3m. Deprec is higher than Cap Ex - even during rationalisation so it will defo be higher for the next couple of years. SO CASH levels will rise. That is 4m CASH next year on a MV of 12m!!5. Pension - they have taken action to limit liabilities. Again to me this is double whammy. Not only does it reduce liability but it give credibility to mgt for seeing issues and taking action for the benefit of shareholders.6. Investment Property - I think reading between the lines this will be sold this year. It is in the books at 2.9m but as they have mentioned it publicly I assume the buyer is the current leaseholder and with higher commercial property prices I think this will yield a further 3m CASH - maybe at the expense of 100k profit (vs LY). So with 7m CASH fcst by the end of next year - yes 2 or 3m might go to the pension fund but it supports higher divis, share buy back or special divi.7. share buy backs. This was my cue to invest. They bgt back 10% of shares last year - that is very unusual. They must have had agreement with the pension trustees to use surlus capital in this way - thus I concluded that the pension situation must be manageable.8. as others have mentioned the mgt have built up a decent track record. when we look beyond the stock market pressure of year on year growth - what they have achieved over the last 5 years is impressive. sales growth, huge margin improvement, rationalisation, pension resolved, whilst reducing shares in issue and paying high dividends. this mgt team should be on a premium rating!! and what about the profit potential is they acquire something and rationalise that too..... so thinking of potential EPS of 4p on a 12x or 15times rating is not inconceiveable for a growting business with good CASH + Cash flow and reputable mgt....All IMHO, DYOR + BoLAIEA is in my portoflio
Biscuit Barrell
09 Sep 2016
Re: Results TB - I think your pension point is well made. However I think there are two rteasons to be positive which are probably not baked into the share price:Firstly the FX benefits not only reverse poorer performance in H1 but they provide an opportunity for growth.Secondly the benefits from site rationalisation are clearly materially benefiting the P&L in H2. But the run rate EBIT will be substantially higher now so that should lead to further growth in the current financial year. Finally the pension deficit looks a lot more manageable against a higher EBIT and therefore any remaining distress priced into the share price should recede.All told - a great bit of news flow over the past year and probably more to follow.
mantrova
09 Sep 2016
Re: Results My, oh my - how quickly the years pass - I hadn't realised that mine go back to 2011 and those almost single figure pence days, so even more pleased to see these results and effect on the sp.This is the old "Sirdar plc" and in past years was very much held by many pi's for the excellent divi's , which we appear to be seeing something of a return to.I shall continue to hold these by chance there may also be a return to the excellent AGM lunches, of the same former days!m
mnamna
09 Sep 2016
Re: Results Hi Buzz,yes the increase to the divi is very gratifying but I'd prefer that the company is fully funded for growth than pays too much in dividends. Most surprised and gratified by the 50% rise in the share price! Suddenly this tiddler is one of my larger holdings.There is more pension information available in the full report available on the company website aireaplc.comI don't know much about pensions. The pension exchange exercise seems interesting. If I understand the gist they are offering pensioners more cash/income now in return for low lower future liabilities to the trust? Sensible. Though how much effect it will have in reducing the extent of the over liabilities and potential for problems from their increase seems limited. Overall the management here is starting to establish a credible track record. As these are the results to end of June the management should already have the figures for the first months of trading in the current year. I suspect that the increase in divident says as much or more about the trading and cash flow in the current year to date than it does of the results to June?cheers
The buzz
08 Sep 2016
Re: Results The results look good on the surface. I just hope that they are not giving too much away in dividends - I had a spirited debate on this with the Chairman a few years ago. My one concern is the defined benefit pension scheme. For some reason (if I am reading things correctly) they seem to have had a pension credit of £1.3m. Now one might have heard that Carclo recently had to cancel a declared dividend because the pension deficit had increased as a result of using a lower discount rate (as a result of the 'bank rate' going down to 0.25%) to calculate the pension liabilities. I did not spot an assumed figure in the final results, but they will have to adopt whatever the accountants deem to be a suitable figure.The B
dokp
08 Sep 2016
Results I'd almost forgotten I held these. The results seem to have taken everybody by surprise. The comments that profits had been adversely affected by strong sterling suggests that with a now far weaker sterling then this year should be even better. If the SP rises by another few percent I'll be breaking even.
The buzz
26 Jan 2016
Colefax Half Year Results Colefax (CFX) sells at the top end of the market (like AIEA) with fabrics, wall paper and decorating. Their outlook statement includes:-"The recent trends in our two major markets, the US and the UK, suggest we are entering a period of more challenging market conditions. Together with the turbulence in global markets that has marked the start of 2016, we are cautious about prospects for the remainder of the year"If CFX are anticipating a more challenging environment in the UK market, then AIEA would be anticipated at having similar issues with the domestic carpet business.What no one seems to mention is that fuel costs should be falling quite rapidly, plus oil based products used in the manufacture of carpets ought to be cheaper as well. If they can hold their prices then their profit margin should improve.The B
Biscuit Barrell
22 Jan 2016
Re: Trading ~ Update The business has close to £25m of total costs. Closing down two of four facilities and generating rental income from one of those facilities has to be worth a meaningful amount of cost relative to the profitability of the business overall.The RNS is hardly helpful in determining what those costs would be and the accounts really tell us little more with cash operating costs at a level of about £23m. But even if the facilities savings is only a handful of personnel per site it will also have an impact on the capex line (as facilities maintenance always costs something) and in addition they earn some rent - so this may sound naive, but how can closing 2 sites and renting out one not impact the P&L by at least £250k per annum - which is after all material for this business.
mnamna
22 Jan 2016
Re: Trading ~ Update I was also wondering about the upmarket residential versus the tiles businesses which may prove to be a good split in the end. The building land has almost been forgotten, no bad thing.As I read it the lease is expiring on one property, the property to be leased is freehold? If so, I like their style - better to realise a good yield on a property right now than add it to cash where it doesn't work for the business. Especially with other land still to sell. Makes me think that the management and board are thinking long term?cheers
The buzz
21 Jan 2016
Re: Trading ~ Update It is good to see the company holding its accounts on a steady line for several reporting periods after the upheaval of a few years ago. The relocation has been going on for quite some time so its a bit of a red herring. Good to see that they have managed to find someone to take over tbeir leasehold property in Bury.There must be some strategic questions going on now. The housing market has been doing really well and AIREA operate at the top end. Things at that end are now starting to cool down. AIREA might have reorganised themselves in a window of opportunity, but are they going to do so well if the housing market continues to fade? The buyers at the top end of the market might well start to fade away with the falling price of oil and the collapse of the value of the Rouble.Conversely businesses are still trading reasonably well, so their industrial carpets might be their salvation if the housing market starts to fall away. There is still the building land to sell off over the next few years at Wakefield.The B
mnamna
21 Jan 2016
Trading ~ Update International Sales suffer through high exchange rate and production consolidated from 4 sites to just 2. After exceptions earnings expected to be roughly in line with last year. Going forward costs will be reduced, lease expires on one site and the other site is to be rented out. So no profit warning (in the sense that there are no forecasts anyway and earnings will be roughly equal - with a bit of jam tomorrow spread on top.So back to sleep, though I may pick up a few more if the price drifts low enough,cheers
The buzz
23 Sep 2015
Re: Results out Agreed. The turnover is up - as one would 'expect' with the improving housing market and improving economy. The significant increase in the pension deficit is of concern - but manageable if the they can keep their profit margins up. My local carpet man thinks that AIEA is expensive - this might in part be due to the old premises used by AIEA. Still they have that housing development possibly bringing in a wind fall.The B
mnamna
23 Sep 2015
Results out results out this morning. Quite a downbeat presentation. The figures are quite good but hidden in the report - Sales up 11% and profit up significantly £508,000 (was £301,000) with basic eps 1,29p(was .69p) and adjust eps 1.5p (0.9p)But with the share price at 22p (21-23 bid offer spread) it's on a hefty P/E around 18 - quite high for a tinpot carpet basher. The pension deficit is a worry. Costs a lot and further deterioriation could grow into a big problem for such a small company.But on the positive side cashflow was excellent - £1.928.000 operating cashflow and despite the increase in working capital, capex, pension payment, dividend and share repurchase the company ended the year with an unchanged cash pile of £1,833,000.The marketcap is around 9.5M so adjusting the for the cashpile the business is worth about 7.7M which reduces the P/E to around 13.5 (quick rough calculation) which looks a lot better value.Dividend is raised by 50% to 0.9p which gives some insight into the current state of trading and expectations for the current year.Despite the downbeat presentation of the results (no headlines) the management speak is quite positive - 'clear and growing signs of improvement in trading conditions in the UK' and 'despite the ongoing strength of sterling the company continues to grow sales in international markets' which indicates that sales are still growing. At first I was not too positive on these results - but having looked a little under the covers I will be adding on any further weakness in the share price,
