mantrova
05 Apr 2018
Re: at 66p my estimate of BID value I've made my own calc's of the share's value, purely on a dividend yield basis.I've noted the already paid interim of 1.75p for the current period of 18 months.Adjusting the period for a normalised 12 months and ignoring entirely the proposed 5p special dividend, I calculate exactly 3.5p of normal total dividend for the normalised 12 month year, based on the current 18 months period now ended.On a product/business area risk averse basis I would be looking for a yield of not less than 3.5% which surprise, surprise; gives a sp of 100p or 77.8p for a greedy 4.5% yieldBut, all that is without adding anything at all for the now great state of the company and its likely huge potential for the future. Also not forgetting the sp here was 141p in 1994!My calc's have been rather quickly done, so if there is an error, please let do me know.m
mnamna
05 Apr 2018
Re: at 66p my estimate of BID value thirty fifty twentyThank you - thats an excellent overview and well written.I hadn't expected AIEA to become my largest holding this week and then by some this morning. It's only a couple of years ago I was topping up at 9p! I've flogged a few this morning just to reduce the oversize of my holding and to take a bit of cheaper CG tax into this year, but somewhat to my bemusement it remains my largest holding, Now if only I could work out how to do that reliably!cheers and good luck
thirty fifty twenty
05 Apr 2018
at 66p my estimate of BID value at 66p I think it could be a contested bid situation – it will be interesting to see what price they are thinking of….JHD – has ebitda of 54m, CASH of 50m and a MV of 880m (220m shares at 400p). so that is an EV rating of 16 times. Aiea will make EBITDA of 3m. It has CASH of 3m. FH of 3m and pension down to 2m.There are 42m shares. So netting off the FH and the Pension. Valued at 16 times EBITDA gives a value of 51m (120p)But the exciting thing is that the low cost factory would be worth a lot more to some-one like JHD as they could put extra volume through it and close one of their current factories not to mention the saving of say 0.5m of head office costs, central purchasing etc.. and PLC costs. So I think JHD could ‘justify’ a higher price than 120p – I know this sounds crazy compared to the more recent share price but it is factually and logically based. JHD has 50m of CASH earning say 1% retunrs so if it buys a business and earns 5% returns that is an improvement – 5% returns would be 20times earnings = 60m (150p) so it just gets better and better. VCP – has ebitda of 100, debt of 90m and a MV of 900m (120m shares at 760p). so that is an EV rating of 9 times.Valuing AIEA at 9 times EBITDA = 30m (76p).I do think a bid battle is likely which is great as it will maximise value…..Given the synergies, the potential with duplicate costs and the potential to maximise the new efficient machinery AIEA has bought with extra production volume I do think that the 76p calculated above is a minimum figure.If there is a bid price mentioned, and if there is a contested offer, I think that will support the future valuation of AIEA should a bid not be accepted. That value will be less as there are risks with operating alone as a smaller business, albeit slightly offset with the higher growth and acquisition opportunities. I think 7 times EBITDA + CASH would be reasonable… = 21 + 3 = 24m (56p). All IMHO, DYOR + BoLAIEA is in my top5 hldgs
Our Haven
05 Apr 2018
Re: at 46p rising (again!) in falling ma... Great opening!
Our Haven
04 Apr 2018
Re: at 46p rising (again!) in falling ma... Another JackoThanks and yes I did miss that news so much appreciated.
Another Jacko
04 Apr 2018
Re: at 46p rising (again!) in falling ma... It looks like you folks have all missed this:[link] Halstead plc ("James Halstead"
notes the recent movement in the share price of Airea plc ("Airea" and confirms that the Board of directors of James Halstead (the "Board" is at the very early stages of evaluating making an offer for Airea which could lead to an offer being made for the entire issued and to be issued share capital of Airea (the "Possible Offer".
Our Haven
04 Apr 2018
Re: at 46p rising (again!) in falling ma... Excellent rise today going from strength to strength. Trying to work out if it will continue to rise tomorrow.
mnamna
04 Apr 2018
Re: at 46p rising (again!) in falling market Well I never expected AIEA to become my largest holding, even if temporarily as it's risen in a falling market. cheers
thirty fifty twenty
04 Apr 2018
at 46p rising (again!) in falling market the share price has been fully supported since the resultsand although there were very positive comments about ongoing trading,cash flow and the special dividend,it seems that people are still very keen to get hold of the shares.the move above 44p is VERy significant n the chartsAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLAIEA is in my top5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
21 Mar 2018
Re: mgt are at last being recognised yes great market reaction.the 'complicated' results explains why they released the closure yesterday.like you say many positives and in this negative market time it is particulalry encouraging to see that the market have faith in this mgt - that too me is the key to future share price growht here.... i..e it is easy to work out ebitda of 3m to (maybe 3.5m) p.a. as likely profits but the rating applied to that could be anywhere from (below average as current) to premiujm above average.i've longer hoped that they would get a higher share price and then use that for a acquisition that they could make efficient...but maybe they have read Buffet and will 'just' generate CASH and buy back the shares to generate increased shareholder returns... here's hopingAll IMHO, DYOR BoLAIEA is in my top5
Our Haven
21 Mar 2018
Re: at 34p interesting results Opening 41p to 43p interesting. Take on board what you are saying TFT on the cautionary points however there is plenty to like, staff losses aside on these results.
thirty fifty twenty
21 Mar 2018
at 34p interesting results quite complex the results and lots of exceptional costs so one needs to be a little careful re the underlying profit projections and the jam tomorrow story but the mgt have a decent track record and the split into 2 should lead to a small and very profitable business left.even after the special divi there will be net cash + a £3m FH propertyand with capital expenditure made there will be strong CASH generationi think ongoing a 2p divi is sustainable on the reduced share baseAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLAIEA is in my top5
Our Haven
21 Mar 2018
Final Results Looks good with14.5% of the shares to be bought back, 5p special final dividend to be paid and payment to sort out the pension scheme. New technology coming on line and the to be closed part of the business that is loss making meaning increased profits going forward. Interesting to see how far the share price will rise this morning.
thirty fifty twenty
20 Mar 2018
Re: exciting closure and CASH return OH thanks for reminding about the impact on individuals.i had originally intended to include that in my post but forgot.i do have confidence though that the management will treat employees well in the circumstances as the 2 businesses are closely linked and mgt have an excellent reputation since they started to turnaround the business several years ago. not the less it is right to be respectful of the circumstancesthanks OH for pointing outAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLAIEA is in my top5 hldgs
Our Haven
20 Mar 2018
Re: exciting closure and CASH return Sad news for the employees who will be losing their jobs. However for us shareholders we can only benefit from this as TFT has already stated. 17% up today and more tomorrow I am sure.
