thirty fifty twenty
01 May 2018
thoughts with one day to bid deadline you'd imagine that if it has gone to the last day that JHD has at least decided to make a bid.you'd also imagine that since AIEA have had time to consider that the bid offer must have been within an acceptable ball park or they would have rejected outright.So seems logical to conclude that it is a question of price.I still doubt that JHD will cough up enough given the worth of AIEA,but hopefully we will at least get to know what JHD offeredas this will give some sort of medium term support to the price.all idle speculation at this stage,tomorrow will be interestingAll IMHO, DYOR + BoLAIEA is in my top5 hldgs
Our Haven
01 May 2018
Re: leak or a trap? Why the equalling move back this afternoon, trap?
Our Haven
30 Apr 2018
Re: leak or a trap? 60 to 62 this afternoon would imply something like 65 if this is a leak. Soon know.
thirty fifty twenty
30 Apr 2018
leak or a trap? interesting 6p up move today...is that a leak, or a trap before the JHD bid decision tomorrow??time will tell!All IMHO, DYR + BoLAIEA is in my top5 hldgs
Boyobach
27 Apr 2018
Re: at 55p analysis of outcomes Yes mnamna. Although I don't think JHD have a headache - a deal is either worth pursuing or it isn't. If it is marginal then, frankly, it isn't.I should mention that I'm a JHD holder - not, as yet, AIEA. Might revisit if the bid never happens.
mnamna
26 Apr 2018
Re: at 55p analysis of outcomes Yes indeed. I agree, and would add that the large shareholders will back the management in asking a full price. I can't see them being coaxed out for an 'average' multiple. I suspect that this gives Halstead a bit of a headache. AIEA is one of my top three holdings - I can't specify which as they tend to change around regularly, the other two being FSJ and BOO (historically from 24p).I did sell a few when they bounced up at around 63p. I am happy to hold on and buy back if the bid fails to materialise,cheers
Boyobach
26 Apr 2018
Re: at 55p analysis of outcomes Well argued 30 50 20 . Particularly this bit, which strikes me as a good summary:'I think AIEA mgt is very astute and will ask for a price that justifies the business they have restructured and built over the last 8 years. I dont think Halstead will pay that price. In this scenario the price could fall back towards 40p and not rise until there is a clean set of results from the re-focused business.'
thirty fifty twenty
25 Apr 2018
at 55p analysis of outcomes Hi Boyobachthanks for posting your analysis and whilst it is logical and specific,for me i see some differences when apllying to AIEA.you are correct to say that the 'average' bid premium is oft quoted at c.30%,but there are also instacnes when it is 100% - INB, Opsec, WTM and 3 specific examples i have commented on in the past. In my view the reason these companies warranted such a large premium was that they were not 'average' situations.They were all small Market Cap companies but with a good record of good CASAH flow.The stock market valued these companies as stand alone entities, which as they were small companies involves a higher degree of risk.These companies also had come through various problems,which again enabled the stock market to attribute them a lower rating.However the key point was that the actual businesses,if they were part of a lerger group were worth a lot more...suddenly the same CASH flows, when part of a larger and more stable group were 'worth' a lot more. Thus the acquiring company needed to pay a very large premum to acquire the underlying business.I think this same instance exists with AIEA.The underlying CASH flow is excellent since new mgt took over the company,- this is evidenced by the increasing ACSH position, the FH property, the special dividend, the share buys backs (*2) and the comfortable excess funding of the pension scheme such that the deficit is now almost eliminated.The value of the underlying CASH flows (even before any cost synergies) could quite easily be valued at 80p a share to which one would add the FH property and the CASH.The real hidden gem though in AIEA is the new machinery.If extra volume can be put through this machinery the profits would increase significantly. Obvious current management will try and do this but i think Hlastead have a much better chance to acheive the same results as they ahve a much broader network and sales force. Thus the same plant and amchines could be worth a lot more to Halstead than one might value them under AIEA's ownership.So in my mind the price that Halstead could ay and would still be a good deal for them could easily be at a 100% premium to the underlying price before the RNS (whatever price / day we deem that to be)The reality though will all be about negotiation.What might they offer, and what might AIEA major sharehodlers accept?I am a long term holder and excited as i might get about a juicy take over premium,I dont actually think the bid will go ahead.I think AIEA mgt is very astute and will ask for a price that justifies the business they have restructured and built over the last 8 years. I dont think Halstead will pay that price. In this scenario the price could fall back towards 40p and not rise until there is a clean set of results from the re-focused business.For me then it is a frustrating situation that i think the share price will go lower but i dont want to sell my holding in this little gem of a business and management team. There are plenty of buyers taking up stock at 53.6p ,and if i had spare funds outside an ISA i think buying is a good RISK / REWARD at this price (the loss if there is no bid could be offset vs CGT) Time will tellAll IMHO, DYOR BoLAIEA is in my top5 hldgs
Boyobach
24 Apr 2018
Re: at 66p my estimate of BID value Timing is everything is it not? The JHD statement of the fourth refers to recent share movement in AIEA, yet which movement exactly? The notice of proposed closure of Ryalux on the 20th and the Final results on the 21st March each coincided with movements that together added 50% to the sp, taking it to 45p. Presumably JHD's statement only refers to the further rise on the 4th (prior to their after hours statement), which added nearly another 6p taking the price to 50.8pWhich movement was alluded to matters because acquisition premiums apparently average up to around 30%. So, by that reckoning, it might be supposed that JHD were contemplating a maximum bid based upon the sp immediately after the Final results of that day ie 45p +30% = 60p or so. Which rather fits with today's sp - and explains the swift fall back from the (silly?) heights of 74p. Bearing in mind that AIEA's sp has recently been around 30p, that's a pretty handsome number and, I suggest, it's quite possibly at the top end of any offer for AIEA
mnamna
13 Apr 2018
Re: JHD It may also place pressure upon JHD not to bid, or to make a lower bid which won't be acceptable to many AIEA shareholders?
Our Haven
12 Apr 2018
Re: JHD Hi GravyYou are correct if their shareholders approve the takeover but if they are worried that it will decrease the value of their shares then they may not go for it.
gravy
12 Apr 2018
Re: JHD Is it a concern to AIEA shareholders ? I'm not sure why. It's likely to be a cash deal isn't it ?
Our Haven
11 Apr 2018
JHD Could not help noticing that JHD share price has taken a bit of a tumble since the announcement. Got to be of concern.
mantrova
08 Apr 2018
Re: at 66p my estimate of BID value mnamnaIndeed, I'd forgotten about some of that - it must have been all those good AGM lunches which the hotel used to put on.....Wasn't it the sale of their share in the hotel which funded the Rylux purchase....I always thought both the sale and the buy were mistakes. It was the Knitting Yarns which kept the Sirdar brand name.However, I think I'm correct about the dividend worth and a lot more needs to be added to my 66p's worth, for the additional quality of the business as a whole.Interestng times!Atb,m
mnamna
06 Apr 2018
Re: at 66p my estimate of BID value mantrova - 'Also not forgetting the sp here was 141p in 1994!'but that was Sirdar plc and this is Airea plc!In between they sold the hotel division for £14m and in 2007 'spun' out, if you'll pardon the pun the iconic Sirdar spinning to a management buyout which looks to have been successful. For some years the AIREA has been worth less than the price they got for the hotel division - not that I am complaining as it allowed me to buy at a price which, with hindsight fully engaged, is looking very cheap. With the closure of the carpet operation the remaining business looks to be very successful - but its very different from what was Sirdar a couple of decades ago.cheers
