Clitheroekid
17 Aug 2018
no bid (as expected) what price now I feel as though I’m speaking in an empty room, as nobody seems to use the discussions any more. I suspect this is because it’s no longer possible to see when a new comment’s been made, and nobody is going to plough through every discussion board just on the off chance. It’s a shame, and a very poor reflection on ii’s customer care (i.e. non-existent) that they haven’t sorted this out. Anyway, after my OT rant I was pleased to see that the SP recovered today to its post-bid level. The results, whilst not spectacular, were very satisfactory, and I personally think the company has a good future (though I could be tempted if any prospective bidders are reading this!
Our Haven
23 May 2018
Re: no bid (as expected) what price now Very difficult to top up as the price volatility is very high. See where it settles at through the day.
mnamna
22 May 2018
Re: no bid (as expected) what price now thats a fair assessment 305020 imho. If it goes sub 50p I shall be one of those topping up.cheers
thirty fifty twenty
22 May 2018
no bid (as expected) what price now so this evening JHD has confirmed they will not bid ,they were talking for several weeks and failed to agree terms.JHD reserve the right to bid in future (usual terms)so my conclusion is that JHD were trying to make a bid on the cheap,AIEA then announced great results which boasted the share price and very clearly demonstarted the future value of the company,and , as i had posted several times, JHD were not prepared to pay a higher priceI had thought that AIEA were worth 80p to JHDbut think a fair marke tprice for AIEA would be 60pthat said i expect the price tomorrow to go sub 50p...until AIEA demonstrates the true value of the new business,and the restructuring i think the shares will be off shareholders radar.that said - the P/E will be low at sub 50p,there will be CASh + CASH flow,a great mgt tema with a proven track record,shareholder friendly with share buy backs and special dividends,and a likely future dividend of 2.5p per annum so it will be painful to watch prob 20%+ wiped off the value tomorrow,but i'll not be selling any tomorrow.All IMHO, DYOR + BoLAIEA is in my top 5 hldgs
thirty fifty twenty
11 May 2018
at 60p thoughts after AGM visit am surprised to see the selling after the AGM on Thurs which i thought was good news.obviously they didnt say anything specific but the directors seemed relaxed and in jolly, albeit efficient moods, which i thought was a positive sign. But maybe the seller has a better read of body language than me!!regarding ongoing businesses....profis in the last 12 mths were 2.8min the previous 12 mths to june 16 they were 3.3m.in 2017 however they were learning re the nmew machine so were operating inefficiently they said - for instance staff had to go to USA for training. The new machine though now is doing well and very very simple to operate and maintian.they talked confidently re sales prospects, the reception for new products and being at 60-70% capacity with no fear of current plant being able to handle c.24m/26m of sales.. so i read that as very bullish.certianly i assuem the ongoing business will have higher profitiability ongoing as they reap learning, training and efficiencies so my fcts are 3m for 2018 (i..e EBITDA of 3.3m) from that must come 400k going to the pension to give ongoing 2.9m EBIDTA with low expedcted cap ex requirements. so very simplistically at 8 times EBITDAgives EV of 23m + 2m CASH (after 5p special divi paid) + 3.4m Investment property (they talked about favourably) and urplus CASH from the run down of the p&M of the closed business = 0.5m = 29m = c.70pthat to me seems like a decent assessment of ongoing value maybe discounted 10% for a small cap and illiquid - though with authority to buy back 15% and track record of having done so that should be an underpin to the price of 60p.for JHD must surely pay a premium to that.for starters they could save on the 0.6m PLC costs.. directors, NED, lsiting fees etc...that would be worth 4.8m to them at 8times rating (12p a share) (or 5p a share if say share 50/50with themselves and AIEA shareholders)the second big cost saving i think would be in economies of scale with the sales force...i'm estiamting c.2% of sales = c.400k a year - again worth an extra (almost 8p) a share, (or 4p is shared 50/50)so even without a bid premium i think it is fairly easy to see how JHD could pay 20p but likely 10p more that my estiamte of future value which is c.60p to 70p.nearly all the shareholder i met had decent size holdings , knew the mgt over a number of years and were quite relaxed if a bid happened or not. Obviously a bid is mostly preferable but if JHD didnt offer the right price then the happy to hold and benefit from future dividends, special dividends, share buy backs and possible value in the 10.5 acre manufacture site with ultiamtely development potential.personally i doubt if JHD will pay up sufficiently as i think they are too conservative, again severla shareholders saw any price dip post non-bid news as a time they would top up , not that the company is focused and rationalised.(btw the main reason for the closure of the business was that several property leases have expired in the last 2 years - the last one being in june 2018 so it has been a very efficnely and CSH focused run down over the last 2 years.All IMHO, DYOR + BoL(bid decision likely within next 10 days)AIEA is in my top5 hldgs
Boyobach
03 May 2018
Re: Another 3 wks Market likes the extended time... ...not especially over at JHD where it opened 19p down on the previous close (391) before steadying to the 380s. However, the JHD sp does seem to be flattening out.
Our Haven
03 May 2018
Re: Another 3 wks Market likes the extended time. The odds on a deal have improved and hence the rise would be my take.
mnamna
02 May 2018
Re: Another 3 wks Except that extensions to the deadline by the Takeover Panel are at the request of the Offeree company - ie Airea has to request it, Halstead would not be granted an extension to the deadline unless Airea request it. Which does make it harder to deduce what might be going on here? Though clearly you are correct in (1) - that if Airea wanted to kill the sale they would not request an extension and force Halstead to 'Put up or Shut up'It may be the large shareholders that have influenced the board to agree to requesting an extension, not the executive directors.cheers
Boyobach
02 May 2018
Re: Another 3 wks Two points in the statement interest me:1) At the request of the Board of Airea, the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Panel"
has consented to an extension.2) The purpose of this extension is to provide the directors of both Airea and James Halstead with the opportunity to continue their discussions, including the provision of certain key information to assist James Halstead in assessing the value of the Company. From 1) I conclude that Airea are keen to keep the prospect of a sale alive - and that it may not have been but for their efforts.From 2) I deduce that Airea feel that Halstead have undervalued the company and that they feel they can extract a better offer. However, if they are confident of the potential then why are they so keen to sell? and why would Halstead pay a premium over it's own estimated value for a company whose board seems keen to sell rather than prosper with the company?
Our Haven
02 May 2018
Re: Another 3 wks Of course the AGM on the 10th May will have past and the special dividend hopefully agreed. Should make for an interesting AGM although they may not be able to speak totally openly.
Our Haven
02 May 2018
Re: Another 3 wks I would agree, a request from Airea for the extension is very positive from a sale point of view.
mantrova
02 May 2018
Another 3 wks [link]
Our Haven
02 May 2018
Re: discussions on ADVFN Seems like everyone was waiting for the announcement as a trade has gone through now.
Our Haven
02 May 2018
Re: discussions on ADVFN No trades on this of all days seems odd. Is there a moratorium on trading today?
thirty fifty twenty
02 May 2018
discussions on ADVFN this post in relation to some comments on ADVFN:the value of the business is a spectrumand I'm sure the directors have some influence to 'recommend' a price to the biggest shareholders.i think coolen was alluding to the fact that the future salaries and bonus arrangements for the directors are thus as also relevant to negotiationsas the actual price for the shares.the last minute nature is excitingbut trying to stick to my gut instinct (and be prepared for price fall)which is a JHD walk away because they wouldn't offer enoug
