megaloss
11 Mar 2016
Re: CS downgrade & Short interest I guess they topped up their shareholdings because they thought it would help the price - FTSE main board members do it all the time. They get it back through their stock options eventually.Directors' trades are best ignored IMHO....
rumrunner
11 Mar 2016
Re: CS downgrade & Short interest I think I agree, but having bought @ 805 on Wednesday I could have sold later @ 850, only to see it start Thursday @ 799. I then could have sold that day at a profit but held on.iii did not show the broker's note which sent the price down. What is the point of paying for a service that doesn't work?? They are still not showing it. Anyone suggest a better website where I can get running stock market prices?
Floatingboater
11 Mar 2016
Re: CS downgrade & Short interest If the prospects for AHT are so poor why would four Directors, including the CEO spend over £392,000 on topping up their shareholdings. I know who I'd rather believe.
Yertiz
10 Mar 2016
Re: CS downgrade & Short interest Does anyone think CS have downgraded AHT, told their moneyed clientele they were going to do so in the knowledge the price would fall and then suggest the same clientele buy shares in AHT before their next 'upgrade', which, on the back of the resuts is more likely to happen than not?Or am I being too cynical?........Smacks of manipulation to the cost of us mere PI's, but proving it is nigh on impossible.
rumrunner
10 Mar 2016
Re: CS downgrade & Short interest I bought yesterday at 805 and now wish I had cashed in late yesterday.
Hydrogen Economy
10 Mar 2016
CS downgrade & Short interest Bought 780, sold 890, bought 818 and sitting at 850 all in 7 trading days, never a dull moment. CS get the credit for the latest gyration.I note that the short interest rapidly reduced from 6.5% on 12th Feb to 3.4% on 4th Mar, always some lag in the number due to reporting time so unclear if any increase since but the rapid recovery after the last two dips suggests they have decided to look elsewhere for blood. [link] rentals firm Ashtead was under pressure after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock to ‘underperform’ from ‘outperform’ and slashed the price target to 770p from 1,300p.The bank said that after taking a differentiated, in-depth look at the broader US construction equipment supply picture, it concluded that independent of the demand outlook, risks are building around rental rates.CS now assumes rental yields in Ashtead's core US division fall to -1.7% for FY17 and to -2.3% for FY18. This, along with its expectations of a weaker demand outlook, result in earnings per share downgrades.The bank cut Ashtead's EPS estimates by 15% for full year 2017 and 29% for 2018, putting it 10% and 18% below Thomson Reuters consensus, respectively.“Our holistic analysis of the stock and flow of US construction equipment leads us to believe that the sharp contraction in construction activity in Emerging Markets (and Canada) is likely to result in sustained pressure on used-equipment prices in the US, which are a key determinant of rental rates,” CS said.In addition, it noted that key barometers of US non-residential construction demand suggest the current non-residential upcycle could be weaker and shorter than thought.At 0855 GMT, Ashtead shares were down 5.6% to 813.50p.
Hydrogen Economy
02 Mar 2016
Re: Price drop AvagoThe reason could be that profit in the first quarter was £161m, second quarter was £182m and third quarter was only £139m. Individual quarter results are not mentioned in the press releases! I wonder why?The odd thing here is not the fall in Q3 number, but the rise in the Q2 number. Previoius years results (at least back to 2011), have peaked in Q2 and fallen in Q3 and Q4 kicking-up and back in Q1 to a peak in Q2, that rather suggests normal seasonal variation so not a concern. If you can be bothered to plot PBT (which I did last year due to similar concern but sadly not able to attach here) you would see a lovely rising channel with Q2 on the upper line and Q4 at the bottom as the PBT zig-zags between them in perfect formation. this year Q2 actually pushed above the previous trend line, Q3 is in line with trend. All looks like business as usual and good business at that. H2
Hydrogen Economy
02 Mar 2016
Re: Price drop Kapulski "As far as I can work out, the market is not so much concerned by the latest results but by the announcement that capital expenditure will be reduced next year."That seems to be consensus explanation, but the statement (extract below) indicates the capex reduction is because AHT don't have so much old kit (from 2009-11) in the fleet so don't need to replace it. The range of possible expenditure (0.7-1.0B) in that context Vs FY 1.2 B in 2015 doesn't sound like a crisis to me.Market has long had a downer on AHT, there are enough Companies out there performing way worse and getting more support. Market is forward looking, so maybe they see the storm clouds gathering and have got this right. My view is that a company which is clearly trouncing the competition tear on year is doing plenty right. The sector environment may move either way but the stronger Companies are the ones most likely to benefit and AHT looks like one of those, it is currently generating good earnings and balance sheet will be strengthened as Capex reduces. Time will tell. H2"We are now entering a very different replacement cycle as we lap our low capital expenditure years of 2009, 2010 and 2011 and therefore our replacement spend will be much lower than recent years. However, we continue to expect strong growth capital expenditure generating double digit fleet growth. Our operating model, and short delivery lead times, allow us to flex our capital spend quickly. Reflecting our desire to be watchful of broader economic trends before finalising our Q3 and Q4 2016/17 spend, we have a broad range for next year’s capital expenditure of £0.7 to £1bn."
Scooby Doo It
01 Mar 2016
Re: Price drop That an FY guidance revised down from ahead of expectations to in line.PE of 11, FY profits of 440m. I caught the last dip, those that caught this one did well. I'm hoping for a slow climb back to £10.Chose AHT ahead of PFC !!!!
The Earl of Acol
01 Mar 2016
Results At some stage the markets expectations would not be met. This seems to be it. However we are still expecting double digit growth next year. The pull back in investment will lead to cash generation and that will help maintain the dividend and perhaps grow it. Ashtead has had an extraordinary run and this is almost certainly a buying opportunity. I am of the view that a fair price is in the £10 to £12 range. However since this holding represents a disproportionate portion of my portfolio I will not be buying more. In fact I am a seller above £11 so that funds maybe diverted to an ISA.I truly regret selling at 7p and 19p. Run the winners - If I had followed that rule it would have been life changing!!
avago
01 Mar 2016
Re: Price drop The reason could be that profit in the first quarter was £161m, second quarter was £182m and third quarter was only £139m. Individual quarter results are not mentioned in the press releases! I wonder why?
Kapulski
01 Mar 2016
Re: Price drop As far as I can work out, the market is not so much concerned by the latest results but by the announcement that capital expenditure will be reduced next year. Although most analysts seem to regard this as a wise move in current conditions, it could also be interpreted as a signal that Ashstead has reservations about the direction of the US economy, which is where it gets most of its profits. Hence the sharp drop - in my view an over-reaction and a buying opportunity at today's prices.
72_fastback
01 Mar 2016
Re: Price drop Results look pretty decent to me, so 15% fall suggests Mr Market thinks I'm an oaf.No sure what the market expected.
Yertiz
01 Mar 2016
Re: Price drop Bizarre - great if not superb set of results for last 9 months yet the price plummets. This must be a rock solid buy at these levels. Unfortunately I'm fully invested and there's nothing I want to sell at the moment. If Halma reach £9 today, then I will shave off some profit and buy more AHT.
II Editor
11 Feb 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Winter Portfolios mauled in January "Seasonal investing is nothing new. Statistics going back 20 years show that share prices do best during the long winter months. This anomaly has made smart investors substantial profits for two decades, and last year we launched our own model ..."[link]
