The Earl of Acol
06 Oct 2016
Re: Projections & Trump ! Berrassoit is good to know a few of us are in a similar position. I sell down annually enough Ashtead shares to cover the CGT allowance. Unfortunately(fortunately) the way the Ashtead share price has moved its percentage of the portfolio keeps growing!I cannot bear the thought of paying CGT but may live to regret that. You pose an interesting thought. I do not believe Trump as President will have too much power but a wobble is possible. However America can be a very insular Country and I suspect much of the business Ashtead does would not be unduly affected by a minor fall in world trade as a result of Trump.As far as the price is concerned the truth is who knows but my own view is that £15 may be easily achieved but £17 in the next 12mths is a little racy. We will benefit substantially from the fall in sterling though.On another matter I expect borrowings to start to fall quite significantly over the next few years although the share buy backs may influence that a little.We will see on both counts!
Edgecourier
06 Oct 2016
Re: Projections & Trump ! Hi Berrasso,First off,I like this share,but I sold up in the summer with a nice profit.The reason I sold was it has a debt to profit ratio of over 5x (3 is in my comfort zone),and in the US the cost of borrowing is on the increase.So its reasonable to assume that at some stage this will have a negative affect on the sp.At the moment there is no stopping this gem, and it has an EPS growth rate of >33%,in 12 months you could be looking at an sp of £17.Who knows what will happen,but it I were in your shoes I would be looking to reduce my exposure and take some of your very healthy profit and diversify.This is just my view , and I'm sure you will DYOR.CheersDave
Berrasso
04 Oct 2016
Projections & Trump ! Hi everyone Im in a similar situation to his lordship .. Im now managing the family portfolio and Ashstead takes up almost 45% of all holdings.Over the last few years Ive watched this share ( and the company ) grow.Obviously because of the size of the holding I've had to take a deep breathe and a few minutes to recover when the share drops significantly , but inline with forecasts this share has reached the 1300+ mark over the last 12 months.In an effort to rebalance the size of the holding I'm obviously looking to sell a chunk at some point over the next 12 months.So .. my question(s) are:1.Pure speculation i know but at what price do you think this share could be in 12 months time?&2. Should Trump get into power , do you think it will Tank and recover in a similar fashion to a 'Brexit' event that Trump in power would be ( negative ), or do you think this share and the markets in general will Tank , and remain low due to the fact that Trump will always be Trump and more than likely send shockwaves across the globe over the course of his leadership.I guess my interest is more focused on the long term effects of a Trump win and AHT specifically as it is a U.S based company.All opinions are welcome.Thanks in advance.B.
Regency Green
27 Sep 2016
CS upgrade Just need Deutsche now to revisit its price target. CS provided a nice top-up opportunity six months ago so can't complain.
Hydrogen Economy
07 Sep 2016
Results Excellent results, the EPS growth, allowing for seasonal pattern, continues pretty much as it has for the last few years.Debt higher- to be expected as Co grows but sounds like Board is cautious in Capex, no bad thing."We expect full year results to be ahead of our expectations and the Board continues to look forward to the medium term with confidence"Great, if not a bit of a logical challenge, sounds like their expectations increase every time they think about it.H2
The Earl of Acol
17 Aug 2016
Re: All time high HE - I agree a financial adviser would have a fit with the concentration and risk.However I first purchased at 45p in 2002 and took a gamble in 2003 by buying a significant number when they nearly went bust.My mistake was perhaps to sell 50,000 at 7p and 30,000 at 19p. To still have those today would be life changing. My rule these days is run the winners and cut the duds. However in practice it is often easier said than done. There is no doubt IMO that the best policy is to find a long term sound investment and stick with it. There are significant risks as you indicate though and I do keep watching this one to ensure the investment case stands. Due to CGT there is little incentive to sell other than up to the annual allowance exemption.Enjoy the Ashtead ride as I believe it has a way to go. The thing to watch for is a US recession.
Hydrogen Economy
17 Aug 2016
Re: All time high EoA...your LordshipHat's off to your mother, 80% in one share that takes some nerve! Not sure it is an investment strategy from the Pension Fund handbook but AHT is probably one of the few shares you can do that and sleep at night. I've held since 2013 and have been impressed with the boards clarity of strategy and effectiveness of execution. I think you could well be right about the 3-5 year view, we are often advised to find excellent Companies and then hold onto them, AHT seems to fit that description. A niggling concern is the recollection of AGK which for years could do no wrong then hit trouble so am inclined to cash in some of the profit. That said I may take thinner slices and hand on to a bit more.cheersH2
The Earl of Acol
16 Aug 2016
Re: All time high Hydrogen Economy I tend to agree with you about the possible future price. I expected £12 prior to Brexit and was very surprised by the fall back earlier this year.The currency movement recently will have a major effect on earnings translated into sterling. I still expect double digit earnings growth for the next 3 plus years. If correct then £15 to £20 per share is possible in the next three years. I also expect substantial cash generation and it would not surprise me to see a dividend of about 40p per year by 2018. Like you I have sold some this week to cover this years CGT allowance. This share is in a portfolio run for my mother who is nearly 90. Unfortunately (or fortunately) it represents 80% of the portfolio due to the shares remarkable run. I am fairly relaxed with the concentration although would prefer 25-30%. I still think the US market will continue to grow as the trend towards renting persists.
Hydrogen Economy
16 Aug 2016
All time high AHT has seen a great run since April after a period when the SP was driven down to levels which seemed totally at odds with the reported performance, especially in US. There has talk that the continued investment in expanding the number of sites, fleet and acquisition was masking the underlying performance and this would come home to roost. The investment will ease in next couple of years due to fleet age profile so I guess this will be tested, it will also give room for continuing buy-backs or dividend increase. The US economy seems to be bouncing along at moderate, not exceptional rate, Fed fingers hovering. AHT has done very well even in relatively weak growth periods, mainly I think at the expense of competitors and presumably by offering what the market needs. UK is a smaller part of the picture, the current worries about construction will impact but I hear a lot of talk of infrastructure investment so that could support A-Plant. GBP/USD has helped push SP but I feel current SP was justified even pre-Brexit.AHT has sustained EPS growth over 30% for around 4 years, Digital Look forecasts 10 & 11% EPS growth in 17 /18, which I suspect is low given that the Fx effects on US earnings will deliver most of that even with no profit growth. Having added through the dip this is now my equal biggest holding at over 8%, I have been taking a little profit to manage risk but keeping around 8% of holding. I would reduce my holding to 4-5% if SP reached "fair value". What I fair value? Good momentum, SP making all-time highs and brushed off XD of 18.5p without pausing, so I think more to come, my guess is 1350 to 1400p is probably as far this can go within the next 12 months. Fair Value? maybe.Any views?H2
Regency Green
21 Jul 2016
United Rentals after hours Nice rise on the back of United Rentals Q2 results last night beating expectations.
The Earl of Acol
27 Jun 2016
Re: brexit effect GeminicI agree with you. At the moment we are witnessing a panic reaction. After things have settled down Ashtead should recover. However the reaction is more down to a fear that a world wide recession may be triggered with the consequent effect on the US. I find it interesting that European markets have fallen even more than the UK.No doubt the buy back is helping the share price as at the end of the day we are still above the level of a few months ago.
Geminic
27 Jun 2016
brexit effect With most of its profits earned in the USA. in $ , surely with the pound falling the Brexit effect on Ashtead's profits should be beneficial. Why then does the share price not reflect this?There are many other companies with large overseas earnings and mostly they too are falling.What am I missing?
Geminic
16 Jun 2016
results With such excellent results continuing into the first quarter, why is this share so unappreciated. Myself, just increased my holding.They are now in a somilar cycle to 2009-12 (less new cash required ) - from 2009 to 2012 the share price almost doubled. Let's hope for a repeat.This share gets most of its earnings in dollars and britexit or no should continue to prosper.
The Earl of Acol
14 Jun 2016
Re: Results The potential for further dividend growth over the next few years seems assured. I feel we should be testing the £12 per share mark again and have been surprised by the fall back to well below £10. The market seems hesitant to believe that the current growth pattern may have several years to run at least. Partly because the comparison is with other rental companies that have had an oil sector bias. I refuse to sell until previous highs are tested. This is my largest investment in one portfolio by far representing some 80%. Shame it is not in an isa.
Hydrogen Economy
14 Jun 2016
Results However you look at it, excellent. Deserves a much higher PE delivering this growth, now watch the Market trash the SP at the open, if so I'll be adding to what is one of my largest holdings.Particularly encouraging is the continued improvement in our margins, with Group EBITDA margins now a record 46%. These strong margins, together with the natural moderation of our replacement fleet expenditure, mean we are entering a phase where we anticipate both good earnings growth and significant free cash flow generation. As a consequence, we have announced today both a proposed 48% increase in our full year dividend to 22.5p and a share buyback of up to £200m 4Q16 4Q 15 FY 16 1FY5UnderlyingRental revenue 584.8 479.1 16% 2,260.3 1,837.6 17%Profit before tax 163.5 110.2 42% 645.3 489.6 24%Earnings per share 22.0p 14.2p 47% 85.1p 62.6p 28% Statutory results Revenue 666.0 538.7 18% 2,545.7 2,038.9 19%Profit before tax 151.3 104.7 38% 616.7 473.8 24%Earnings per share 20.4p 13.4p 44% 81.3p 60.5p 27%
