Regency Green
19 Dec 2016
Today's fall Broker downgrade apparently, citing pricing pressures and little benefit from Trump. URI share price holding firm in the US (at time of writing) so I'm staying relaxed and taking no action.
oldjoe1
07 Dec 2016
Re: AHT.....Bullish Broker Note UPGRADE. Ashtead Group PLC AHT Barclays Capital Overweight 1,557.00 1,556.00 1,279.00 1,774.00 RetainsSP target 1774p
oldjoe1
06 Dec 2016
Re: AHT.....Bullish Broker Note UPGRADE. <b><u>HL COMMENT (6 DECEMBER 2016)Investing for growth</u></b>Shares in Ashtead rose 2.8% following the release of half year results. The US and UK construction equipment lessor saw underlying revenue increase 14% at constant currency in Q2. Including the impact of lower sterling, revenues rose 33%.Operating profits rose 13% at constant currency, with the interim dividend rising 19% to 4.75p per share.<b><i>Our View,Over 80% of Ashtead's revenues are generated in the US. As a result, weaker sterling and the prospect of increased infrastructure spending under Donald Trump have both reinforced a stellar performance since June, with the shares up almost 60%, although this is not a guide to future performance.Already Ashtead is befitting from a strong recovery in US construction spending, along with a trend for US firms to rent rather than buy construction equipment. Bolt-on acquisitions, in what remains a fragmented industry, have helped the group grow market share.Planned capital expenditure for the full year has increased, as it looks to capitalise on the current conditions. However, the markets Ashtead services are notoriously cyclical and in the past the group hasn't been very good at managing the cycle. Ashtead went into the financial crisis laden with debt after splashing $1 billion acquiring another US rental firm just before the crash. When construction markets dried up the share price fell by more than 85%.Given the opportunity presented by a surge in the US construction market, increased capex seems sensible - although we will be keeping a sharp eye on leverage nonetheless. At the moment this remains well within the groups target range. That suggests Ashtead may just have learned its lessons. Assuming replacement capex remains low, the group should generate significant free cash flow over the next few years to support dividends and earnings-enhancing share buybacks.The shares currently trade on a price to book of 3.7x - significantly above the long term average of 2.2x. Analysts are forecasting a prospective yield of 1.6% in 2017.Half year results:On a constant currency basis revenues for the first half as a whole are up 13%, with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) also up 13%. The group delivered record EBITDA margins of 49%.Gains from the disposal of old equipment were £14m lower than a year previously, as a result of a planned reduction in spending on replacing old equipment. However, overall capital expenditure was towards the upper end of the group's expectations. Consequently, the group is now expecting capital investment of £1-1.2bn for the year.£142m of acquisition activity meant that net debt rose during the half, with fleet investment and lower sterling also playing a part. However, net debt still fell to 1.8 times EBITDA (2015:1.9 times), well within the Ashtead's 1.5-2 times range.Both the US and UK businesses continue to perform towards the upper end of the group's expectations. When combined with lower sterling, the group now expects to deliver results ahead of management's previous expectations for the full year.Unless otherwise stated, all estimated figures, including prospective dividend yields, are taken from a consensus of analyst forecasts compiled by Thomson Reuters. These estimates should not be taken as a reliable indicator of future performance.</i></b>All yield figures are variable and not guaranteed. The information in this article is not intended to be advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any investment mentioned, nor is it a research recommendation. No view is given as to the present or future value or price of any investment, and investors should form their own view in relation to any proposed investment.
oldjoe1
06 Dec 2016
AHT.....Bullish Broker Note UPGRADE. AHT Ashtead update.........Broker note from PEEL HUNT <b>guidance RAISED.</b><b><i>H1 profits £425m (+9% YoY at CER +25% reported) vs PHe£410m. Sunbelt momentum continues with Q2 rental revenues+14% (Q1 +14%) and drop through remains strong at 64%(72% LFL). Outlook remains confident with capex guidanceincreased c20%. We increase our April 2017 PBT from £750m(cons £760m) to £790m to give EPS of 102p from 97.1p. Thisreflects both currency and an underlying upgrade. Shares haveperformed but continue to offer value on c12x revised April 2018EPS given growth, quality and positioning.Trading details: Underlying rental revenue for the Q2 period rose 33% (14% atCER) to £784m with group EBITDA increasing 35% (15% at CER) to £417mto give Q2 EBITDA margins of 49.4% (from 47.6%). Q2 2017 group PBT of£242m compares to our £227m estimate and represents 14% constant currencygrowth. Net debt has increased to £2,694m from the £2,348m Q1 closingposition given investment and fx moves. However, implies leverage of 1.8xEBITDA (from 1.7x) and well within management’s 1.5-2.0x target range. ROIdipped slightly to 18% from 19%. Importantly, the Sunbelt (92% EBITA)revenue momentum continues with Q2 rental revenues +15% (Q1+14%) withperformance driven by volume (slight yield decline). We note that same storevolume growth is c8% (around 2x the market growth rate). Sunbelt Q2 EBITDAmargins of 51.5% (Q2 2016 49.6%) are supported by 64% drop through withunderlying same store drop through of 72%. Solid performance from A Plant(8% EBITA) with Q2 profits rising 13% to £20.3m. We note that 17% Q2 rentalrevenue growth compares favourably to peers.Outlook Statement: is optimistic (trading upper end of expectations) andmanagement still sees opportunities to drive more volume across network as wellas enhance the speciality offer. Capex guidance has been increased to £1.0bn to£1.2bn (from £0.7bn to £1.0bn). We increase our April 2017 PBT from £750m(cons £760m) to £790m to give EPS of 102.0 from 97.1p. For FY 2018 weincrease PBT from £844m to £900m to give EPS of 117p. This partially reflectscurrency as well as an underlying upgrade. Estimates are now struck at 1.30.Valuation The shares have performed well given the combination of tradingoutperformance, currency led upgrades, share buy-back (£200m programmes)overseas earnings and attractive end markets (enhanced by recent Trumpcommitment to Infrastructure). However, the rating (13x April 2018) fails toreflect the pace of growth, potential from the Project 2021 expansion andunderlying business quality/positioning.</b></i>[link]
II Editor
06 Dec 2016
NEW ARTICLE: Ashtead snubs generous Trump "Despite the whopping £1.5 billion it's added to LSE:AHT:Ashtead's market value over the past month, there was not so much as a whisper about Donald Trump's presidential election win in the equipment rental firm's interim results. Some might call ..."[link]
oldjoe1
06 Dec 2016
Re: AHT.......AHEAD OF OUR EXPECTATIONS <b>BRIEF – Ashtead Group hikes annual results forecast06-12-2016 08:27Dec 6 (Reuters) – Ashtead Group Plc</b>First half underlying pre-tax profit 2 of 426 million stg, up 9 percent at constant exchange ratesH1 group rental revenue up 13 pecentInterim dividend raised 19 percent to 4.75p per share (2015: 4.0p)In six months, reported results were positively impacted by weaker sterling (53 million stg) but this was partially offset by impact of lower gains on fleet disposalsGroup revenue increased 22 percent to 1,552 million stg in first half (2015: 1,267 million stg)Level of capital expenditure is towards upper end of our expectations at this stage of year for 2016/17.Unaudited results for half year and Q2 ended 31 October 2016Both divisions continue to perform at upper end of expectationsExpect full year results to be ahead of our expectations and board continues to look to medium term with confidenceRevised our capital expenditure guidance for full year to 1-1.2 billion stg at current exchange ratesInterim dividend 4.75 penceper shareSource text for Eikon: ... Further company coverage: AHT.L(Bengaluru Newsroom: +91 806 749 1136)
The Earl of Acol
06 Dec 2016
Future Price A few months ago I considered £17 a bit racy. We have already exceeded my £15 projection and given the positive Trump effect for Ashtead and continued growth at in excess of 10% I now believe £18 is possible by December 17 and provided there is no policy change at Ashtead and the 10% growth continues with approximately 20% dividend uplift then by December 2018 £20 could be on the cards.I am glad I reduced the exposure here but a month later would have been better!!IMO this is still one of the better medium term investments but like all such shares care should be taken to identify any substantial shifts in sentiment early.
oldjoe1
06 Dec 2016
Re: AHT.......AHEAD OF OUR EXPECTATIONS <b>Industrial equipment hire firm Ashtead hikes annual results forecast</b>06-12-2016 07:44Dec 6 (Reuters) – Industrial equipment hire group Ashtead Group Plc hiked its annual results forecast on Tuesday, as both its divisions performed at the upper end of expectations and a weaker pound boosted earnings.The company, which hires out diggers and tools on short-term contracts, said also underlying pretax profit at constant currency rose 9 percent to 425.9 million pounds ($543 million) for the six months ended Oct. 31. ...Underlying rental revenue at constant currency rose 13 percent to 1.44 billion pounds.The company also revised its capital expenditure guidance for the full year to between 1 billion pounds and 1.2 billion pounds at current exchange rates. ($1 = 0.7847 pounds)(Reporting by Esha Vaish and Noor Zainab Hussain in Bengaluru; Editing by Sunil Nair) (([email protected]; within UK +44 20 7542 1810, outside UK +91 80 6749 3080; Reuters Messaging: [email protected])Keywords: ASHTEAD GROUP RESULTS/© Thomson Reuters Limited. Click for restrictions
oldjoe1
06 Dec 2016
AHT.......AHEAD OF OUR EXPECTATIONS 'AHEAD OF OUR EXPECTATIONS'Ashtead profits upAshtead Group reports a a strong first half results with underlying operating profits up 9% at �474.4m.On a statutory basis, revenues were up 8% at �1,551.7m and pre-tax profits rose by 9% to �413.3m.Highlights- Group rental revenue up 13%1 - First half underlying pre-tax profit2 of �426m, up 9% at constant exchange rates - Group EBITDA margins at a record 49% (2015: 47%) - Group RoI of 18% (2015: 19%)- Net debt to EBITDA leverage of 1.8 times (2015: 1.9 times) - Interim dividend raised 19% to 4.75p per share (2015: 4.0p) Chief executive Geoff Drabble said: "The Group delivered a strong quarter with reported rental revenue increasing 28% (13% at constant exchange rates) for the six months and underlying pre-tax profit of �426m. The underlying performance of the business continues to benefit from a clear and consistent strategy of organic growth supplemented by bolt-on acquisitions. In the six months, the reported results were positively impacted by weaker sterling (�53m) but this was partially offset by the impact of lower gains on fleet disposals (�14m) as we reduced our replacement capital expenditure."I am pleased with the continued improvement in our margins - Group EBITDA margin is now a record 49% (2015: 47%). These healthy margins and our strong balance sheet provide flexibility to continue to invest in our long-term structural growth opportunity and enhance returns to shareholders."We continue to grow responsibly, adhering to the capital allocation priorities we have outlined. We have therefore invested �683m by way of capital expenditure and a further �142m on bolt-on acquisitions. With the continuing opportunity for profitable growth, we have increased our full year capital expenditure guidance. In addition, we spent �48m under the share buyback programme and increased the interim dividend by 19%. All of this was achieved whilst maintaining leverage well within our stated range of 1.5 to 2.0 times net debt to EBITDA. "Both divisions continue to perform at the upper end of expectations. <b>This, together with the benefit of significantly weaker sterling, means we expect full year results to be ahead of our expectations and the Board continues to look to the medium term with confidence."</b>
Hydrogen Economy
06 Dec 2016
Excellent as expected, Revenue, Profit and EPCS up 13-15% Q2, 9-13% H1.Interim Dividend up 19% - but still only 4.9p! SP rise outpacing the yield.56p EPS H1 Vs Digital Look forecast of 99.99p FY EPS (it was 98.66p a couple of weeks ago so upgrades have already been applied).AHT is normally weighted to H1 with FY at 1.76-1.88 x H1 - but imbalance trending down in last couple of years. This year - H1 includes only few months sterling benefit so H2 could be closer to or above H1. I expect more EPS upgrades to come. 42 stores added in the first half through greenfields and bolt-ons, half of which were specialty locationsWith the continuing opportunity for profitable growth, we have increased our fullyear capital expenditure guidance... for the full year to £1 – 1.2bn at current exchange rates.Both divisions continue to perform at the upper end of expectations. This, together with the benefit of significantly weaker sterling, means we expect full year results to be ahead of our expectations and the Board continues to look to the medium term with confidence.Strong performance- looks like market likes it at the open!H2
Hydrogen Economy
03 Dec 2016
US Jobs Numbers The market focused on the Fed rate rise which is now expected later this month given the strength of the US nonfarm payroll numbers, dragging the FTSE and other markets lower. I notice Construction employment increased by 19,000 jobs last month after rising by 14,000 in October. Those extra workers are likely to be using more than picks and shovels, a positive sign for Sunbelt.H2
Hydrogen Economy
01 Dec 2016
Re: ..reaching for the stars ? Berrasso"Im assuming the rise is based on the 'positive' noises that his Trumpness is making about inward investment in the US and abandoning the TTIP trade agreement ?"I guess that helped, but the USD strength vs sterling is a big factor translating Sunbelt profits back to GBP given Sunbelt dominates revenue, profits and growth. SP has risen 21% in USD terms in last 12 months (adjusting for Fx)- Vs 49% in Sterling - that's not so dramatic so the price may indeed have more to rise given the improved environment. What improved environment? -US economy 3 month annualized growth increased from previous estimate of 2.9% to 3.2%- Trumps Infrastructure noises (including of course the wall)- UK Govt Infrastructure noises, HS2, Roadbuilding, Affordable housing, nuclear plants etc - Oil price +10% on OPEC agreement (not a big part of Sunbelt's activity but they picked up some bombed out Oil services companies at the right point in the cycle and fracking drives plenty of direct and indirect general construction, roads etc and supports towns -development in the centers of frac-tivity,AHT have flagged reduced Capex (to reflect fleet age) which should release cash for dividends or acquisitions - they may choose to reassess that position and go for more expansion if they assess the market is right. Either way they have shown good judgement in these decisions. The other thing worth looking at is the 5 year chart- AHT was rising in a steady trend up until 2015 when it fell out of the channel. History has proved that to have been misguided and gave a buying opportunity for which I am very grateful, but it shows how trends once established create their own momentum and reasons are found to explain and justify what is happening. If there were any reasons - the drop when far beyond what was justified. I would see little reason why the current rise will not do likewise and drive beyond fair value. I feel AHT is pretty close to fair value on current forecast growth but that may well rise. At some point there will no doubt be pauses, dips and then a correction back to fair value and below. I have been slicing profits on this one on the way up, currently holding it at around 5.5-6% of my total, down from around 8%. H2
Berrasso
29 Nov 2016
..reaching for the stars ? So since the US election this share has rocketed even further.Im assuming the rise is based on the 'positive' noises that his Trumpness is making about inward investment in the US and abandoning the TTIP trade agreement ?Any ideas when this share is likely to decline to previous levels ?My opinion is that perhaps once he comes to power officially in January 2017 and S*it gets real and a more reasoned approach to US trade is taken by the machine of the US Government rather that sporadic Tweets given by MrTrump?All be it a good thing , i do wonder if these recent ascent is based on goodwill rather than facts?Shoot me down if i am wrong ... all opinions asked for and welcomed.CheersBerrasso
peterpiper313
22 Nov 2016
Ashstead take Hewden name etc I wonder which brokers had this in their assessments?From online construction co uk and Guardian etc from mid-day today."A-Plant has paid Hewden’s administrators £29m for Hewden's powered access and power generation fleet, five ‘on-site’ depots that service major petrochemical customers, the Interlift lifting and materials handling business and the Hewden brand name. "
Regency Green
22 Nov 2016
Re: Broker forecast To be fair they're going in the right direction - 10p increase in August, 20p now! Their price targets for AHT always make me laugh which I guess is no bad thing.
