Hydrogen_Economy
10 Dec 2019
Q2 Results Q2 2020 numbers in line image.png1113x653 54 KB
Hydrogen_Economy
11 Dec 2018
Q2 Results AHT quarterly results are very seasonal so it helps to put the numbers in context. The plot below says almost everything needed about how AHT is performing, the outlook comment completes the picture. Our business is performing well in supportive end markets. Accordingly, we expect full year results to be ahead of our prior expectations and the Board continues to look to the medium term with confidence." Despite this, since Q1 results the SP peaked at 2460 before dropping back to 1600p, that reflect worries about US economy and construction, but as the results and outlook show there is no signifcant sign of AHT rentals slowing as yet, they are taking market share from URI and others and growing in several specialist areas and in Canada. USD earnings translation will be boosted by sterling wilt in the face of the Brexit debacle At this price I am rebuilding a sizable position (for me), having taking profits over the last year. I think this represents one of the value stocks on the market, DYOR. H2 image.png860x683 60.6 KB
Hydrogen_Economy
20 Jun 2018
HL View on AHT A fair take on AHT by HL in link below. A reasonable recovery after yesterday’s dip. That was triggered by a perceived miss on 4Q but given the strength of sterling in the quarter and bad weather in UK and US I don’t think it is any real sign of how this year will go. The debt concerns HL mention are discussed in the results announcement and they have taken reasonable steps to protect against interest rate rises. Managing debt into any future dip in business will be critical and who knows when that will happen, AHT initially planned lower capex spend but reversed that after the tax cuts and stronger US growth, I think that was appropriate, it will take time for the current US sugar rush to die back as long as the trade wars don’t turn nuclear. Longer term the crazy debt position will need action which is when the tax party hangover will set in. My guess is 18 months to 2 years before the pain hits, that will be a dangerous time for AHT but for now its party on. Hargreaves Lansdown – 19 Jun 18 Ashtead - Solid growth as US construction booms Construction equipment rental specialist Ashtead saw revenues jump 20% last year, with rental revenue up 21% to £3.4bn. H2
Hydrogen_Economy
19 Jun 2018
FY Results Look solid, pretty much in-line with forecast, well ahead on reported EPS due to US tax changes. Looks like steady as she goes. SP down in a very negative market, bought back a few recently sold, will add more if fall goes further. Underlying numbers - Revenue, PBT, EPS up 21%, 21%, 26%. Statutory EPS 195p up ~100%, flattered by revaluation of US tax liabilities past tax changes. Hurricane repairs contributed to increased revenues. Canadian business boosted by acquisition, becoming material but margins still low A Plant earnings flat, UK market challenging and margins down. 4Q Adjusted EPS flat in GBP but up 11% CER Debt up from 2.5 to 2.7Bn as expected due to higher CAPEX which was raised to reflect the better than expected business environment during the year. Dividend increased 20% to 33p for FY H2
II Editor
23 May 2018
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oldjoe1
22 May 2018
AHT looks CHEAP going forward. Had a few bob in AHT Ashtead as per yesterdays notes/post. Forward P/E to 2019 of just over 16 looks cheap to me.INVESTMENT RATIOS2017 (A) 2018 (E) 2019 (E)EBITDA £1,622.10m £1,757.72m £1,908.84mEBIT £987.00m £m £mDividend Yield 0.99% 1.34% 1.46%Dividend Cover 5.31x 4.09x 4.24x<b>PER 19.04x 18.30x 16.11x</b>PEG 1.32f 4.53f 1.19fNet Asset Value PS 198.99p p p<img src="[link]
Hydrogen Economy
10 May 2018
Re: AHT hits 2200p Of course that should have read 2200p!onward and upwa
Hydrogen Economy
10 May 2018
AHT hits 2000p Ashtead continues to push new highs, 2000p a far cry from the dire warnings of Deutsche Bank analysts in 2016 give sub 600p targets and the 6% of stock which was sold short. I have sliced a few (which is my normal approach, looking to buy back lower in any dip). It would be reasonable to question if the SP is getting ahead of itself at this level, there have been significant upgrades on the consensus 2018 EPS in the last month, from 124p to 144p according to 4-Traders. Of course these estimates fluctuate and can be driven by one analyst getting a sugar high, but that is a big jump. [link] of positives to keep earnings moving upThe dollar seems to be recovering which will help. US Economy still doing well, driven by tax cuts, repatriated cash increasing investment etc. The timing and size of promised infrastructure work seems unclear, relying heavily on PPP Oil price is getting US frackers back on the job, not such a big part of AHT business but are probably positioning to take more of a cut.Happy to still hold a fair chunk, good luck to AHT holders.H2
Regency Green
06 Mar 2018
Re: Q3 results Agree with your observations and also (still) my best single investment. The read across in the US has seen a significant move in URI too - currently up 1.2%! The trap door would open here if URI dropped 6% in a day.
Hydrogen Economy
06 Mar 2018
Q3 results Results look very good and as is so often the case the market sells off heavily. Suzzane Wood, finance Director is leaving after 5+ years in post, but it sounds like genuine personal reasons, return home to US, so I don't think this should be a negative. Underlying results Q3 9 MonthsRental revenue 24% 21%EBITDA 20% 20%Operating profit 23% 22%Profit before tax 26% 24%Earnings per share 52% 30%FCF 179m Vs 68mA few moving parts in the results such as a benefit from the US tax changes with 399m of exceptional tax benefit, tax rate down from 34 to 31% is an ongoing benefit, presumably with more to come when full period is at lower rate.PE at ~16 for FY, great growth record and more likely to come with infrastructure spend and US growth. Even A-Plant is performing well, albeit the tail on a pretty big Sunbelt dog. AHT remains my best single investment, I was happy to add some back at 1923p having sold a few in Dec and Jan.H2
Hydrogen Economy
31 Jan 2018
1.5 Trillion for Infrastructure That should help plant hire sales bigly! If Herr Drumpf can get it funded and then only up until US economy drowns in debt, but still, Harvey Wallbangers all round.H2
Regency Green
14 Dec 2017
Re: SP Wobble Will continue to hold what has been an excellent investment over the last few years but disappointed that the excellent results and outlook for cash flow etc have in my opinion been over shadowed by the size of these sales.
Hydrogen Economy
14 Dec 2017
Re: SP Wobble YertizI think you are right, Stockmarketwire reported “Equipment rental company Ashtead (AHT) fell 3% to £19.99 after chief executive Geoff Drabble sold 941,940 shares in the business. Other members of Ashtead's board also took profit by selling shares.”That’s 70% of his holding and over 19m GBP, quite a sell.Citigroup downgrade from buy to neutral, they had a target price of 2000p which was met, no new target. On Wednesday Numis reaffirmed its buy investment rating and set its price target at 2500p (from 2000p).Digital Look is showing forecasts as strongly positive, but will be interesting to watch in coming weeks. Strong Buy 14, Buy 1, Neutral 5, Sell 0, Strong Sell 1Never wrong to take a profit but I'll hold for now.H2
Yertiz
13 Dec 2017
Re: SP Wobble Pretty hefty director sells yesterday and a downgrade from buy to neutral really hasn't helped AHT's SP this morning. Been a successful investment for me over the last 3 or 4 years, perhaps the time is coming when I sell up, realize the profits and look at new prospects.
Hydrogen Economy
13 Dec 2017
SP Wobble Bit of a weird dip this morning, maybe worries about election in Alabama reducing the Republican majority and undermining some of the Trump themes, Tax cut, infrastructure and the wall. I think that the Q2 results showed AHT can do very well with or without Trump's blundering.Happy to buy back a chunk this morning having sliced a few yesterday (which pretty much why I typically slice profits, even on solid buy and hold shares like AHT). On the buyback, I'd be happier to see AHT finding ways to profitably expand the business, but the board have been criticised for "smoke and mirrors accounting", with the true performance concealed by acquisitions. I think the results over last few years have put that to rest, but maybe board are wary about going too far and want to keep the city quiet with buybacks.I'm happy holding, this has been my best performing share over the long term. H2
