penhome
18 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence I'll have a good look over the weekend. At first glance, cash generation and profits look pretty dire. I assume that the 2017 spike in capital expenditure (largely debt funded) was to do with the European distribution set up and/or their new head office. Everything I've read so far raises more questions than answers - eg why are funds like Old Mutual and Blackrock holding this? Why have directors been doing nothing but selling since 2016?Isn't it just a website selling musical instruments?I'm intrigued!Pen
IAmShareCrazy
18 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence Gear4music has just come on my radar as a short target. What do you think? Seems very overvalued and not much cash.
Lady Jennifer
18 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence I'm not sure about fried ice, but have you tried baked ice cream??It's yummy.........
23Jez
18 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence Fried ice that would be spectacular. Tried not fried sorry23Jez
23Jez
18 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence Has no one fried Nordic Ice? Far superior taste.23 Jez
Lady Jennifer
18 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence It may be true that ShortTracker has nothing showing but that is less reliable these days as they "no longer track disclosures ........... below 0.5%".There is already some interest "out there" in a short play - I remember reading on Morning Star that one fund manager had fallen out of favour who had shorted quite a bit on the way up and Barry Norris thinks the stock could fall by 'at least' 50%.....[link]
IAmShareCrazy
18 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence Sorry I got the debt level wrong. Low debt levels. 57m in cash seems good? Revenue 170m. Net profit 45m
penhome
17 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence I thought they only had £6.1m long term debt at end 2017? Nothing much short term either.I think the weak bit in the financials is the level of cash generation.Overall though, apart from that, I agree that numbers look healthy.Pen
IAmShareCrazy
17 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence I can't see anything definate in the financials, it all seems healthy. F score, altman, cash, profit, but perhaps a question mark on debt. No volume sell off yet or gaps, double moving crossovers.
penhome
17 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence Yes, best to wait for the cracks. First one might be the double top on the daily chart. This would be completed at around £26 and then have a target around £22.I'm probably wrong, but I just think that a £3.4bn valuation on a company producing £33m in free cash flow is completely detached from reality. Can it really have any decent upside left?No one else seems to agree as Shorttracker is showing zero short positions at the moment. Shorts appearing here could be a second crack.Pen
IAmShareCrazy
17 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence It's it best to wait until the cracks appear? I think many thought rmv was overvalued and it's still going up.
share 123 maiden
17 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence In the US I don't think they are targeting the gin market, instead they are looking to create mixers for vodka, rum and whisky (or should I say Bourbon). Also a lot of the younger generation are now drinking less alcohol and I like to have something else to chose from apart from Coke/Pepsi if you are driving.Fevertree also benefit from outsourcing most of their production.
penhome
17 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence Yes, but isn't the whole gin boom a fad in itself?I like a gin occasionally, but there are other bottles in the cupboard.Pen
jamesthetrain
17 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence Fevertree tonic is far superior to Schweppes and it is a key driver in the gin boom. Decent gin can be enjoyed with different varieties of tonic. Fevertree is the market leader here in the UK from a standing start. The US is their focus now and if they get the distribution right (as they have done here), BOOM
penhome
17 May 2018
Re: FEVR momentum divergence Have a look at this weekly FEVR chart and the divergence showing on both the RSI and MACD for the recent high.[link] chart has a potential double top forming which would be completed at around £26FEVR produced around £33m in free cash flow last year and now has a market cap of just under £3.4bn. M&S produced £593m in fcf - almost 20 times as much as FEVR - with a market cap of £4.7bn and also has a much higher dividend yield.Pen
