Greyinvestor
08 Jan 2016
Re: Addenda An interesting point of view re NEDs, I've not heard it before......Unfortunately the ADN NED also bought at higher prices, so he may be just averaging down.
Hardboy
08 Jan 2016
Re: Addenda "Nice to see a non exec add a few shares yesterday."I've made this point on many discussion boards, but seeing NEDs buy shares unnerves me. Seeing Executives buy gives me confidence. BDO Stoy Hayward, who are one of the major agencies for NEDs produce a guide for NEDs, and strongly recommend that NEDs do not take shares in the company. They make a clear distinction between the roles:Exec: Hands-on, Involved, Full time, employed, strategist, Internal knowledge.NED: Hands-off, independent, part-time, self employed, policeman, external knowledge.The policeman role is critical to ensure the company is run correctly (We've seen plenty of examples of SFO investigate large companies lately, specially companies involved with international markets) and holding shares can be seen to compromise that position. I honestly believe many NEDs see the role as being a bit of a highly paid jolly, which they intend to milk for everything they can, and believe they are above reproach, so have no problem having shares in the company. Having said that, I doubt an NED would be buying shares if he did not think the share price more likely to rise than fall, so it is a good indicator that the price is undervalued.
Greyinvestor
08 Jan 2016
Addenda Nice to see a non exec add a few shares yesterday.I ran a quick comparison with Schroders, and the Schroders balance sheet is way stronger....it does look like the better option, it pays a lower divi too, which may well come to ADN as Omaha has suggested....
Greyinvestor
08 Jan 2016
Re: Valuation review I suspect that there may be a bit more weakness yet, as the divi hunters sell out. More fundamentally, there must be some capitulation going on in emerging markets and in S E Asia. I've seen a 25% drop in emerging market holdings valuations, and not far off that in S E Asia. I'm not selling, because I think that in the long term the values will bounce back and in the meantime I'm getting hefty dividends. But I have a more sanguine view than many investors.The question then is how hard will this hit Aberdeen? I would have thought that analysts are probably underestimating the impact on Aberdeen EPS, which could easily fall to 20p to 22p.So then the question is, what is the fair value for this business, given it's pretty weak balance sheet? I'd have thought that a P/E of 12 times EPS is top whack. So the share price is now looking OK, but not great. I'd be a bit worried that analysts are behind the curve as far as reducing earnings are concerned.At a P/E of 12, the company could get bought, but not at a huge premium.I'm bearing in mind that the S&P is hopelessly overvalued, and when it goes, goodness knows what it will do to all markets. This could hit S E Asia again, and then hit asset managers earnings.I think that this is a good company, although the balance sheet is thinner than I like. This caused it big problems in the last downturn. There is also the emerging threat of ETFs, which undermine growth and margins.I'm still thinking, I haven't bought yet......it's been a tough few weeks, given my heavy exposure to S E Asia.If you haven't seen this, you may be interested. I think it's relevant, although it takes no account of governance of both country and company.......[link]
Omaha man
07 Jan 2016
Re: Valuation review I hadn't realised that - a very long run between going xd today and payment on 3 Feb. So we are at the equivalent of just above 260.
Hardboy
07 Jan 2016
Re: Valuation review "Well 250 has arrived rather sooner than I had anticipated"Carnage on the markets. However it would not have reached 250 today had it not gone xd
Omaha man
07 Jan 2016
Re: Valuation review Well 250 has arrived rather sooner than I had anticipated. Not surprisingly perhaps since this is one of the most heavily shorted shares in the market at the moment.For now I am going to hold off buying as I think China will continue to spook the markets in the immediate future. It could easily open limit down tomorrow given how early it closed today. I think well on the sidelines remains the place to be at the moment.
Omaha man
30 Dec 2015
Re: Valuation review I think your 270 is a reasonable area to be thinking of buying - my own target is 250 as I have stated before. The yield looks superficially attractive but as with any financial in hard times you cannot attach much certainty to it, so I have assumed it will be halved; 250 then gives a reasonable income of nearly 4%.It is noticeable that we haven't seen any real bounce here even when the market has been more positive, I don't think there are any buyers out there for something so geared into the emerging markets and overvalued bond markets.
Greyinvestor
29 Dec 2015
Valuation review I took another look at these, given the exceptionally high yieldOn yield grounds alone, these look like a screaming buy, but once you take a hard look at the weak balance sheet and falling earnings it doesn't look so good.To my mind the key thing is that EPS forecasts have tumbled and now seem to be around the 22p - 23p level. A P/E of 12 times an EPS of 22.5p gives a value of around £2.70. There isn't much tangible asset backing, so if earnings tumble so will the valuation.My feeling is that £2.70 is probably top whack just now. So not a buy yet.
TX2
04 Dec 2015
Re: Director selling LOL!Says everything you need to know about this company & Martin Gilbert.....
Greyinvestor
04 Dec 2015
Director selling Further heavy director selling of option shares yesterday......and then granting of fresh options to themselves..........so no change in their view of future value.....
Omaha man
03 Dec 2015
Re: Watch list I am thinking in the region of 250p as an entry level. That may be too aggressive, but I am happy to have minimal exposure to financials unless I can buy them very cheaply. The next downturn will be much more painful tan the last IMO as none of the central banks have any ammunition left and China will not bail everyone out like last time.
Tom Buidhe
03 Dec 2015
Good long term investment See recent FT Lex column. Price has suffered due to big withdrawals from their Asian funds but this is counterbalanced by their fixed interest SWIP investments so that profit has not fallen significantly. Emerging markets will recover eventually. Profitable company, current yield >6%.
Greyinvestor
02 Dec 2015
Watch list These are on my watch list too. My reservations are that a) it's quite a cyclical business, being heavily exposed to share valuations in S E ASia b) the balance sheet isn't half as strong as they say, there are maybe £600m of solid net assets, somewhat less than some competitors like Schroders, and c) reserves have come down a lot due to acquisitions, I presume. Finally, there has been really big director selling of shares, to the extent that directors don't own that many. There has been no serious buying by executive directors. What there has been s serious shorting of the shares (about 4.5%) by the likes of Odey.On the positive side, S E Asian share prices have come down a long way, so you could argue that a fair bit of downside is in the price. To my mind the shares may be heading for their bottom. The trouble is that in the dark days of the recession, EPS hit 13p. I suspect that the whole market knows this, and may be pricing in a low of perhaps well sub £3.I would not buy above £3.00, and wonder if there isn't a low somewhere below that..........
Omaha man
01 Dec 2015
Re: Beauforts Security The clue to how useful this broker view is, is contained in the phrase 'we maintain a buy rating on the stock'. Given the dreadful performance anyone who has been a buyer has led their clients into trouble.I'm still out and monitoring. I feel there will be a point where the markets are looking really poor, this will tank again and then represent real value.
