Fabius1
03 Mar 2016
Re: Dilemma I like the Aberdeen team but ADN is an asset manager and if markets take more punishment (summer?) it won't do them any favours. I am out for now, probably a little premature, and looking for a double bottom.F1
sound money
03 Mar 2016
Re: Dilemma Think you need to take a view on emerging markets.These are now being seriously being tipped with the dollar coming off the boil.If you think they been oversold and there is some upside, then these are geared play on the upside. Indeed the upside may suprise.M
Hardboy
03 Mar 2016
Re: Dilemma OM,Maybe there are different reasons, but this is the eternal dilemma for all investors - do I hold sell or buy & when, or at what price? - and we never know for sure. It's never wrong to take a profit. Panic over far eastern markets may be abating short term, but I saw some manufacturing data out of China this morning which disappointed markets; and their debt problem is not going to go away soon. My personal feeling about ADN is in the short term it is hard to call after the recent recovery. Long term the upside is far greater than the downside (partly as they are moving away from their dependence on Far Eastern Markets.) They have shown confidence in maintaining the dividend (but is this false confidence?) So if you do decide to hold and the share price does not go the way you wanted, you will be comforted with a good yield.Good luck!
Omaha man
03 Mar 2016
Dilemma This is now up 27% since my opportunistic purchase at 210 less than a month ago. I'm very tempted to take my profit and run, but at the same time it is clear it was being aggressively shorted and if these close there could still be a useful further spike up. Further if the panic over Far Eastern markets is now abating, which seems to be the case, then the risk is of not getting back in again when medium term I think there could be quite a prolonged recovery. Really not sure what to do.
Another Jacko
13 Feb 2016
Re: Toe dipped I've been watching these for a while but can't make my mind up. I saw the results of Ashmore the other day and I presume the drivers behind both businesses are similar and their AUM dropped by about 16% and eps dropped to 6.5p so at a price over £2 a share they don't look cheap based on current earnings.I wonder therefore whether ADN's dividend is safe.I would have thought that if you buy today you're going to make money in the medium term but perhaps there'll be an opportunity to buy in a fair bit cheaper.
Omaha man
12 Feb 2016
Re: Toe dipped Personally I think the bigger impact on the banking system will come from the collapse of many of the highly leveraged US shale producers. They are pretty much all producing at a loss at the moment and it's only a matter of time before the banks begin to pull the plug. Even if they manage to restructure, debt holders are going to have to take a substantial hit along with equity being wiped out. The big question is how this spreads out into the real economy. Of course at the moment most people are beneficiaries of lower oil prices so this is going to support growth via consumer spending; but if confidence goes then people could begin to rein that back.
Hardboy
11 Feb 2016
Re: Toe dipped I didn't see the whole interview, or fully follow the logic, but on Bloomberg this morning was a guy from Brown Shipley saying markets are completely illogical; and he thought the bond market was priced for zero growth zero inflation for 10 years; and the main fear for equities was a collapse of the Chinese Banking system; but that would not trigger significant contagion like the 2008 US Banking collapse; so it should not affect many western shares to adversely.
Omaha man
11 Feb 2016
Re: Toe dipped Bought a few more at just under 210 this morning. We seem to be heading towards the panic stations I was anticipating a number of months ago. I still don't have what I would consider a unit holding and am anticiapting the opportunity to add again on further spikes down. While this will be painful for the equity side of their business, it should not adversely affect bond funds and portfolios with liability driven objectives.
Bowman
04 Feb 2016
Re: ftse re-jig Omaha,I agree that the sp trend is initially and primarily caused by external factors, however, the trend becomes affected at a secondary level by promotion/demotion. So there is likely to be more volatility around the time of the index related event. This can manifest itself as a spike up for an inclusion or a spike down for an exclusion.I also agree that there is a high proportion of trackers that are ASI related, but there is also a not insignificant number of FTSE-100 related trackers.In general the long-term performance of a Company's sp is related to the underlying business rather than its inclusion in any specific index, but the index related activity can cause transient effects that can affect investment decisions.
Omaha man
04 Feb 2016
Re: ftse re-jig From a scan through the paper it appears to me to be flawed in that it has no analysis of external factors. So there is no discussion of, or attempt to control for factors such as profit warnings, result announcements, corporate events, or other factors exogenous to the company. The fall in ADN ahead of the index review therefore would be attributed to its prospective exclusion from the index, whereas I would suggest that exclusion from the index is a result of the adverse impact on the share price of movements in markets. Similarly an oil company being demoted would follow from the falling price of oil driving the share price down rather than the prospect of its demotion triggering pre-emptive selling.The paper acknowledges that the ASI is the predominant tracked index. The fact that they find no price reversal effect after the window surrounding the exclusion also seems to me to reflect the fact that it is company specific factors affecting the price. If that were not the case then the removal of index related selling pressure which had driven the price down would allow it to recover given that the shares would be offering better value.All IMHO and as I said I have read only part of the paper and scanned the rest.
catsick
04 Feb 2016
ftse re-jig Its a very strong effect , all the forced buying and selling , if it looks like they are out then the effect could be around a 20% fall in the share price, which usually happens in the run up to exclusion, this research outlines the effect ...[link] would look to buy in around the 25th of march when the max pain has been inflicted .....
Omaha man
03 Feb 2016
Re: Demotion from FTSE-100 Very few funds track the FTSE100; the majority track tha All-Share.
Bowman
03 Feb 2016
Re: Demotion from FTSE-100 A tracker’s job is to deliver the return of its index. It usually does this by holding stocks (or other assets) in proportion to their presence in the index. Some trackers will hold the lot, some only a sample, and yet others will replicate index returns using complicated swap deals.So most trackers have to hold ADN purely because ADN is in the FTSE-100. They can only sell ADN when it drops out, and they would replace ADN with whatever share takes ADN's place.I think a recovery in ADN's main investment markets, i.e. asian and emerging markets, will outweigh any losses resulting from FTSE-100 demotion in the long-term. Currently I am happy to hold and wait for this recovery. However, if I were to be considering increasing may holding I might wait until after the next index review.
foolish learner
03 Feb 2016
Re: Demotion from FTSE-100 Are the tracker funds a little irresponsible if they have not sold by now, its no real surprise that ADN are likely to exit the FTSE100Tracking aside to sit andhold cost you nothing if you think they will recover any paper losses and maintain a dividendJump ship and were to invest risk free?While not happy with my loss I am sitting tight for now,
Spain Fund
03 Feb 2016
Re: Demotion from FTSE-100 Tracker funds will have sell.Dividend pay day today
