Vincentinvestor1
22 Nov 2014
disconnect This mounting fundamental disconnect has exploded in recent weeks, leaving achl stock prices drifting in some dark fantasyland totally divorced from reality. For contrarian investors who like to buy their profits cheap to maximize their future returns, this anomaly has created an extraordinary buying opportunity. imo
Vincentinvestor1
21 Nov 2014
Re: AGM Special Resolutions it was non chinese institutional shareholders base that voted against the two special resolutions to allow the issuance of more shares , basically this is good news for the private investors as risk for dilution is zero at this momentin medium term I expect a major change in ACHL shareholders base whereby the initial chinese shareholders will sell outimo
Bowman
21 Nov 2014
AGM Special Resolutions Interesting that the two special resolutions to allow the issuance of more shares were not carried as the result of insufficient backing.If my data are correct then no new shares have been issued since December 2013, so we appear now to have a stable base.
dotlink
21 Nov 2014
look ami, lond, pog, they all got huge nav and their sp still go down and even administration and suspension, achl is just the same aim and own by chinese
Vincentinvestor1
20 Nov 2014
Re: Analysis I agree but I stepped in at 9p...... could it get lower you bet, its AIM market and the odds are stacked against you,...its very difficuly to restore confidence in a share like #achl but I believe in the new management ( at least they are communicating all the bad news )Food producers at the commodity end never trade for very high valuations but at least it should trade for its cash valuegla
Wildcat2
19 Nov 2014
Re: Analysis Vincent - I'm very optimistic about ACHL, just as you are, and I also have a good shareholding. But this has looked incredible value from the 25p level and the market isn't completely bonkers, so it's a good idea to at least try to get your head around some of the negatives in the story.Questions you have to ask yourself are, for instance:How much will repairs and disruption from the typhoon impact the cash pile?How long will it take to reverse the trend of falling production and deal with the canker?Input costs, such as fertiliser & labour, have been rising. Can these be controlled?But the big picture is that this is amazing value, I agree. DYOR
Vincentinvestor1
19 Nov 2014
Re: Tom Winnifrith Article tom scored with qpp but i spoke with the new management of achl, lets see who's long here!
changeling
19 Nov 2014
Tom Winnifrith Article I'm guessing you've all read it - be careful he is like a dog with a bone I can't post it up because of the language but it's worth a read - just a heads up
Vincentinvestor1
19 Nov 2014
Re: Analysis Forget about broker reports especially their " house " brokerDYOR ( do your own homework ) This is that the stock is exceptionally cheap, given its fundamentals, provided that company filings are accurate.Asian Citrus scores well on nearly all the key investment metrics with a strong balance sheet, strong cashflow and robust prospects for profits growth. /+ over £180m, of cash equivalents This compares to a current market valuation of £115m which means that the market value values cash below its 100% face valuein terms of the balance sheet Asian Citrus is unbelievable inexpensive and is a rare case of a profitable and growing business giving NO VALUE at all for all of its tangible assets.( next to giving only 60% value to its cash values)I dear to say that if i loose money on my 500.000 shares at 9p @achl investment it can only be because th books are cooked in a way never seen in the history of mankind, even Madoff woulw be jealous on this master piece of misleading investors!but otherwise I will be a happy man it can take some time because Asian Citrus continues to prove that out of favor stocks can take time to come to fruition.
Wildcat2
19 Nov 2014
Re: Analysis Vincent - there's a new concentrate factory with a 100k tonne annual capacity. They are not forecasting 85% utilisation, but it would be great if they could get to, say, 70% utilisation. Interesting that you think they might sell the concentrate business for $100m. Production per tree has been trending down for the last few years, that's why I ask if you have a scientific input here. If you are an agro-scientist you could be taking an informed view that they can reverse this trend. A good opportunity here I think, but DYOR. The Cantor Fitzgerald analysts' s report from May 2014 is worth reading.
Vincentinvestor1
19 Nov 2014
Re: Analysis question iro concentrate business
rganic growth is limited as average utilisation rate of BPG is already above 85%, should always generate a gross margin of 20% around 25 million US$ / annum, i see only a growth path throu acquisitions - I have doubts about this integrated business model and this was an expensive mistake , take over was impaired for 75%, book value is now 50 million US$, they should be able to re sell this business at 5/6 ebitda , hoping for a 100 million US$ take over for this concentrate businessquestions iro plantationsvolumes are just based on #achl own predictions re maturity trees , its impossible for me to have a " scientifique opinion or weather related vision??i believe that prices will go up in the short term as US$ is getting more expensive and foreign dumping oranges on the chinese market will become too expensiveanyway lot of catalysts to make money at current levels but as usual do your own homework!gla
Wildcat2
19 Nov 2014
Re: Analysis Vincent - OK. That's interesting. I've seen no research that looks that far ahead. But it makes sense to do so because in an agricultural business like this the progression of young trees towards maturity is a vital part of the organic growth of the business. I've seen a recent note from Librium Which looks 2.5 years ahead and is very gloomy. But I think you are on the right track looking further down the line. In 2013-14 ACHL produced 197.5k tonnes. Of that 124k was winter oranges from Xinfeng, and approx 74k a mix of summer and winter oranges from Hepu.Your view is that between 2014 - 2021 production will increase sharply:Hepu 74k to 125kXinfeng 124k to 175kHunan 0k to 175k Are these predictions based on calculations re. tree maturity etc? Or on better science/weather? Orange prices have been weak in China, because production has been rising. Do you think that will continue?What is your view on the concentrate business? DO you see volumes getting back to 60k+ tonnes and margins recovering?I agree that this company is incredibly cheap at these levels, and there is a real chance of a 10x appreciation. I'm not disagreeing with your figures. Just interested to know how you arrived at them.
Vincentinvestor1
19 Nov 2014
Re: Analysis my projection is Hepu 125k tonne level - Xinfeng 175k tonne level + Hunan 175k tonne level , I am looking at an exit run around 500k tonne level as from 2020 , sustainable for at least 5 - 10 years imo
Wildcat2
19 Nov 2014
Re: Analysis Vincent - what is orange production projected to be b 2021. At the moment it is around the 220k tonne level, think, though it is projected t dip to around 200k tonnes this year.With all 3 plantations - Hepu, Xinfeng and Hunan - running full blast what should ACHL be producing?
Vincentinvestor1
19 Nov 2014
Analysis Because of the large production growth to come, a good approach might be to look further ahead to the year when all three plantations will be in full production. That should occur in 2021. Net profits at that time could reach roughly Rmb 3 billion, with 80 % of the total coming from sales of fresh oranges and 20% from the production of juice concentrate.EPS would be around Rmb 2.40, or HKD 3. If we assume a multiple of just 10 x , we come to a share price of HKD 30. The recent stock price of HKD 1.15 would need to rise by more than 40% annually for the next nine years to reach HKD 30 in 2021. This implied rate of return is unwarranted considering the quality of the business and its ability to generate free cash flow, especially co nsidering the fact that Asian Citrus presently has more than HKD 1.8 per share of cash and no debt. Meanwhile, between now and 2021, investors will likely get their currentstock price back in dividends. The stock is undervalued on current earnings and on projected earnings, is loaded with cash, has no debt and is available at a fraction of replacement costI am sitting her by myself on this message board at 9p and I owner when the herd of investors wil begin to understand what great punt/investment opportunity #achl is at current levels!!!imo good luck to you all.
