Wildcat2
06 Mar 2015
Re: view John - I think it's difficult for the company to be all that shareholder-focussed right now. They have had a horrendous 6 months, that follows two very poor years. Their priority has to be to fix the plantations and tell it as it is. That's basically what they are doing. They really can't distribute cash in a year when they are going to make a core loss of at least £20m.Re te management. The new CEO has been installed for a year now. We really don't know a lot about him and I think we have to give him more time. Personally I think if you were to buy the shares at this level (7p) you'd be very likely to see a good return within 3 years.
john222
05 Mar 2015
view I can see some optimism from the board contributers here and was going to buy at circa 6.5-7 a while back then it spiked to around 9-10 and fell again.My gut feel is not to now as this company just doesn't seem shareholder focussed at all (putting it mildly) and I think unless you have complete faith in management you are better off out of this kind of company.Good luck to all who hold it appears cheap on paper but it may just be one of those stocks that is forever 'cheap'.222
Bowman
26 Feb 2015
Re: Results Wildcat2,I agree that there appear to be future production events that should significantly improve profitability but this will only happen if the weather does not cause another disruption. Dividends will come back when ACHL start making a profit again.My two targets are crossing the 200d EMA (which hopefully will occur at around the 10p mark, and a return to the 12-14 level seen early last year. Either of these could occur in the next year.A good, profitable harvest this year will provide a good base on which the Company and the SP can build.
Wildcat2
26 Feb 2015
Re: Results Bowman - something I find encouraging/exciting here is that there should be a step change in production from 2016 when Hunan plantation begins to produce. They have well over a million orange trees that are 3 and 4 years old. A couple of years further out we have 750k grapefruit trees that will start to produce.I have a small orange grove in a holiday house on the Med. The trees produced another for about 4 years, but after that they became very productive. I see that the CEO is very cautious in his future guidance, and says Xinfeng and Hepu are going to take several years to return to previous levels of production. I can't see the share price rising in a big way until dividends are restored.
popes11
26 Feb 2015
Re: Results Climate change now means 1 in 40 year events based on historical data are not as relevant . Might end up happening every few years. Time will tell. Good luck with your trees.
Bowman
26 Feb 2015
Re: Results Popes11,They did not have problems in previous years so I do not think the location is really the issue. Although if the adverse weather conditions recur on a regular basis this might need to result in a rethink.As a forestry owner in the UK I know how weather and disease can completely disrupt well laid plans. I have used naturally growing Ash for the past 25 years to fill in gaps in one of my crops, only to find now that I have a high probability of losing this crop before it can be harvested to the Chalara or ash dieback disease that is sweeping through English Ash crops. At least the canker in ACHL's orange trees can be treated with fungicides!Potentially ACHL might be better considering smaller plantations in other locations, which would limit the risk from local conditions, although obviously this would have an adverse effect on the cost of operations since additional personnel and equipment would be required, or the existing personnel and equipment would have to be moved around more.
popes11
26 Feb 2015
Re: Results Are they attempting to grow crops in the correct locations? Seems to a lot of bad weather in that short summary.
Bowman
26 Feb 2015
Results Well nothing new seems to have occurred. I had hoped for some statement on the extent of canker in the crop this year, but it seems that it is too early in the biological year for ACHL to make a comment.Progress overall will depend on the weather conditions over the coming months. If we get a period of better weather then the lasting effects on the crops of last year's problems will become apparent.For me one large positive in the results is the fact that ACHL has no debt to fund, and appears to be operating using its own resources.ACHL seems to be cautious about future prospects, but it does seem that, with some luck with the weather, we might be able to slowly rebuild profits from here, but I think it might be several years before we see a significant rise in the SP.
boredstiff
24 Feb 2015
Re: No joy here thanks.
Wildcat2
20 Feb 2015
Re: No joy here The frosts are likely to be doing some damage to the Florida citrus crop.But I don't know what effect this will have on orange and concentrate prices in China. It would be useful to find a source for wholesale fruit concentrate prices there.Florida has abut 70m orange trees, which is about 65% of the total in the USA. But I think Brazil is the world's biggest orange producer. I know that the dock strike on the west coast of the USA is causing problems to US exporters to Asia of perishable goods, like oranges.
boredstiff
19 Feb 2015
Re: No joy here Does any one know to what extent Florida's orange crops are being effect by the severe cold currently hitting most of the Eastern US?
Wildcat2
08 Feb 2015
Re: No joy here Bowman - I agree that there is no positive note in the trading update, but just about all of the bad news was known to us already. The only surprise to me was orange production from Xinfeng (1.6m trees) falling to 104k tonnes (approx). That's 20% lower than production in 2012-13. It's important for the company to reverse this trend. I agree that it would be good to a statement on progress with dealing with this plantation's problems.
Bowman
30 Jan 2015
Re: No joy here Wildcat2,I agree that the bulk of what was reported had been flagged previously. I had hoped, however, for some statements as to the status of the canker infection treatment, the plantation recovery from the weather damage, etc. especially if good progress was being made. The absence of such statements could be taken as there being more bad news to come. Also any further cooling of the Chinese economy could adversely affect ACHL.The drop from 80+ has been long and steady, and there is no sign of a substantial change of direction. My feeling is we are approaching the point where we have to see a reversal, or else the remaining value will evaporate, especially if we drop below the December lows.I have prepared myself to having to hold these for a considerable time longer before seeing any reasonable return, and this is tucked away in the speculative portion of my portfolio. Personally, if I was looking to invest anew I would be looking for a move above the 200d EMA first.
Wildcat2
30 Jan 2015
Re: No joy here Bowman - maybe you are being a tad too pessimistic here. There is nothing in this RNS we didn't expect. There was a huge typhoon through Hepu in July and we are seeing the consequences. Turnover will be down about 20% in the 6 months July-Dec to c.£60m. Orange production for the whole year will be down to about 135k tonnes and concentrate production about 50k tonnes. ACHL will definitely incur a cash loss this year, probably of about £10m, but there is a large cash buffer to absorb this loss, and no debt. Looking forward, there is no reason why production shouldn't soon return to where it was in 2011-12 (216k tonnes) and then comfortably exceed that as Hunan begins to produce.Definitely worth holding. This will recover.
Bowman
30 Jan 2015
Re: No joy here Tornadotony,You were definitely correct to get out when you did, I wish I had cut my losses at that point. The value of my holding is so small now it is not worth doing anything with apart from holding for a miracle!The current trading update does not make good reading, even though the contents were quite well flagged in advance. However, there is a marked lack of "forward guidance" in the RNS so I expect the sp to remain under considerable pressure at least until the interim results are released.I used Sharescope to look at the net cash situation, and according to their data there are 73 AIM stocks and 29 FTSE stocks with MCap less than Net Cash. The FTSE stocks include BARC, STAN, RBS, LGEN, and AV. to mention a few, so the cash position does not show the real situation; it is a trifle more complicated.Notwithstanding what measures one uses, ACHL appears to be in a very dodgy position currently and I would wholeheartedly agree with your recommendation for anybody but a complete gambler.
