J5ack5k
26 Jun 2017
North Mara - locals attempt to steal ore [link]
kolwezimundele
24 Jun 2017
Re: Final result Not discarding the continent lightly at all - just saying that, having worked in 10+ countries there, I have seen it take the 'wrong' (ie. corrupt or violent) path too many times to count. The last 20 years of the DRC says it all. And while Tz is by no means like the DRC (I hope) it seems to be playing games now.Also I think EY or any other large audit firms would be somewhat offended to hear that its audited figures are a fabrication. Auditors are not popular but the big firms, at least, try to work to high ethical standards - it is in their own financial and regulatory interests to so. Of course they are not perfect and, like everyone, can make mistakes (and usually get heavily punished for doing so). I think it is obvious that if the coy's group auditors had caught a glimpse of corruption in ACA'a affairs over the past X years they would have immediately resigned, which has not been the case.One possible take on this messy affair is that the current PM is out to discredit/sow doubt on the prior regime of Jakaya Kitwe (2005-15) - the government is saying that the corruption went to the 'highest levels' . If this is indeed the case, then once this is seen as having been achieved, hopefully operations will get back to normal. But of course who knows for sure....??? Anyway, best of luck to ACA (and its investors) in the matter.
appamama
23 Jun 2017
Re: Final result I wouldn't discard Africa or Tanzania so lightly. Tanzania, I was told, is on a growth path. As for Africa, I have even heard a mathematical historian claim that an African woman was the author of an old book (elements?) that is attributed to Euclid. Anyway, Tanzania and its stock market should do well in medium-term future.As I wrote in an earlier post, the numbers that are used for political purpose (ore, concentrate, gold content whatever) are different from accountants' numbers, which, in turn, are different from the engineers' numbers. The engineers' numbers are closest to the truth. The rest are fabrications.
kolwezimundele
20 Jun 2017
Final result Can't help feeling this matter must blow over. How does a company export multiple times more ore than recorded - in a rucksack? The accusers seems to forget that the production and transport process is verified all the way through - was everyone in on the scam? Likewise the proceeds from the 'undeclared' ore must appear somewhere - so group auditor EY is also fraudulent? That's interesting. Tanzania has let itself down badly with this affair. Why does Africa always shoot itself in the foot - so glad I left the place over 6 years ago?
appamama
16 Jun 2017
Speedy moves The SP moves quite fast. This morning, it went up about 5% in under an hour. If it were to cross 300 decisively and move to 400 or so, it wouldn't probably take more than a couple of days for that... Interesting share, like many other Gold miners.
appamama
15 Jun 2017
Appropriate language for the audience The dialogue in Africa must be a difficult one for the politicians. For public consumption, they need to use strong language. If the President's report claimed that Acacia were transporting 10 times the worth of concentrate they reported, let us assume that it was for public consumption. As and when a negotiated settlement takes place, the President and his team will definitely make it sound like a big gain. Make no mistake about that.Today's presentation was a short one. The Acacia guys simply did not want to cause any offence. They even said that they have moved beyond President's two reports (without ever getting to see them)!That should tell us a lot.
tornadotony
14 Jun 2017
Re: The CEO joins the Chorus Well I would now see it as a buy in the 250's with Barrick entering talks as Tanzania is the third highest recipient of overseas aid from Canada in the whole globe. The Canadian government can give out aid as they get taxes from companies like Barrick Gold. I am pleased the Tanzanian Judiciary condemned the words of a Party Parliament spokesperson calling for the invasion of the Acacia Mara mine this weekend. I just hope things stay peaceful and their President would be wise to tone things down so nobody gets hurt. The rule of law is what creates a civilised society and without security we usually have nothing.The trouble is that Trump's behaviour has encouraged a few others around the globe to lead by bullying. That kind of leadership is the opposite of one volunteer having the worth of 10 pressed people as the later often stop using their collective brains. It is a shame it takes the bully leaders a few years to work that one out. I still have no positions on Acacia but I am interested how this all plays out.
kolwezimundele
14 Jun 2017
Re: The CEO joins the Chorus TBH I was quite surprised to see this happening in Tanzanian - in Congo or Nigeria, it's expected and in Kenya or Uganda highly possible. There is 'something' behind this story - when that is resolved, Acacia can go about its business. I hope. Up 7% today - the market sees something positive happening.
appamama
14 Jun 2017
The CEO joins the Chorus The CEO joined the chorus this morning saying that the very existence of the company is threatened. First there were those couple of scaremongering messages here about some mine getting closed, and then about some multimillion penalty, and then the CEO utterance this morning.Sure enough, all this was followed with the RNS that the company has started a dialogue with the president for resolving the conflict! Nice work all around.
tornadotony
14 Jun 2017
Thursday The Tanzania judiciary is a highly independent body and it has an appeal court as well. The Executive President does not have oversight of the judiciary. No matter how one looks at it, the current situation is a long court case. The executive probably does have the power to continue the ban on export of gold sands and the company may need to confirm it. Any rewrite of mining laws is likely to take a long time to do. It is quite easy to devise laws which put off all new mining applications completely. The company may need to explain what happens on earlier contractual agreements and how they might be affected. I suspect it is hard to undo things that were previously agreed.The earnings of Acacia are badly affected and some has already been reflected in the current share price. They will need to give some good idea of likely earnings say against an average gold price for the remainder of 2017. My hunch is that it may lead to an SP around 258 at 1270 gold. The company is likely to run with a lower PE rate compared to the past simply as it is exposed to uncertain risk. The share price is likely to find a new normal range during July where news from the President is unlikely to further affect it as the risk is absorbed as a known. Those holding may be able to average off and trade pools up and down in the coming weeks and exploit moves on the direction of the gold price. The company has done well with its new website in my opinion. Acacia is a hot topic in Tanzanian newspapers. Over time that may cool off. So no news over the coming weeks is actually good news.
appamama
13 Jun 2017
Re: Again 'entire floors being block booked by several African leaders and politicians'.That is a news to me. Do the African leaders also get speaking fees in tens of thousands per hour?
dog-with-fleas
13 Jun 2017
Re: Again I made a similar point earlier when this news first broke. It is a genuine shame for the poor people in these countries being surrounded by so much corruption. I think this is a dog share and I truly hope they can find a compromise deal with these disgusting leaders. During the London Olympics you couldn't get a room in the Ritz etc due to entire floors being block booked by several African leaders and politicians.
kolwezimundele
13 Jun 2017
Again Have seen the same occur many times in other countries in Africa during 10 years of working there - no idea of the details in this instance, but in all other cases the Government accusations were 100% false (and usually politically motivated). This type of thing is a risk of doing business/investing in Africa. Tanzania was previously looked upon as a more benign destination for foreign investment (as compared to, say, Congo, Kenya, Uganda etc.) - perhaps that is changing.The African continent says it wants foreign investment - reality consistently indicates otherwise.
appamama
13 Jun 2017
Company presents its case on Thursday Morning We will come to know more on Thursday. Till then, treat all reports about mine closures, hefty money demands etc. as fake news.
tornadotony
12 Jun 2017
$540M demanded immediately The president has demanded effectively 41% of the company value tonight which is 108 trillion shillings or $540M dollars. Only after such a payment they will consider Acacia having any right to mine in the country at all. All the value and registration of the company has to remain in Tanzanian although I am not sure what this means for anyone holding stock in the UK. The company is effectively facing the risk of all mining assets being frozen and to lose the right to do any future business. If this threat is passed through Tanzanian Parliament than these shares could well be suspended. I find how Tanzanian politicians claim to be scientific and expert in what they do is an insult to science and political governance. I would encourage folks not to buy any position despite the company having done absolutely nothing wrong. I am concerned for Acacia miners and their families as they may be targeted by the public whipped up by politicians hate. The Government have started with the investigation of civil servants having contact with Acacia in the past. Tanzanian is now an example of having the wrong person in charge and that is something for voting plebiscites everywhere to reflect on.
